We consider an autonomous agent facing a partially observable, stochastic, multiagent environment where the unknown policies of other agents are represented as finite state controllers (FSCs). We show how an agent can (i) learn the FSCs of the other agents, and (ii) exploit these models during interactions. To separate the issues of off-line versus on-line learning we consider here an off-line two-phase approach. During the first phase the agent observes as the other player(s) are interacting with the environment (the observations may be imperfect and the learning agent is not taking part in the interaction.) The collected data is used to learn an ensemble of FSCs that explain the behavior of the other agent(s) using a Bayesian non-parametric (BNP) approach. We verify the quality of the learned models during the second phase by allowing the agent to compute its own optimal policy and interact with the observed agent. The optimal policy for the learning agent is obtained by solving an interactive POMDP in which the states are augmented by the other agent(s)' possible FSCs. The advantage of using the Bayesian nonparametric approach in the first phase is that the complexity (number of nodes) of the learned controllers is not bounded a priori. Our two-phase approach is preliminary and separates the learning using BNP from the complexities of learning on-line while the other agent may be modifying its policy (on-line approach is subject of our future work.) We describe our implementation and results in a multiagent Tiger domain. Our results show that learning improves the agent's performance, which increases with the amount of data collected during the learning phase.

Voting among different agents is a powerful tool in problem solving, and it has been widely applied to improve the performance in machine learning. However, the potential of voting has been explored only in improving the ability of finding the correct answer to a complex problem. In this paper we present a novel benefit in voting, that has not been observed before: we show that we can use the voting patterns to assess the performance of a team and predict their final outcome. This prediction can be executed at any moment during problem-solving and it is completely domain independent. We present a preliminary theoretical explanation of why our prediction method works, where we show that the accuracy is better for diverse teams composed by different agents than for uniform teams made of copies of the same agent. We also perform experiments in the Computer Go domain, where we show that we can obtain a high accuracy in predicting the final outcome of the games. We analyze the prediction accuracy for 3 different teams, and we show that the prediction works significantly better for a diverse team. Since our approach is completely domain independent, it can be easily applied to a variety of domains, such as the video games in the Arcade Learning Environment.

Exploiting parallelism is a key strategy for speeding up computation. However, on hard combinatorial problems, such a strategy has been surprisingly challenging due to the intricate variable interactions. In this paper we introduce a novel way in which parallelism can be used to exploit hidden structure of hard combinatorial problems, orthogonal to divide-and-conquer and portfolio approaches. We demonstrate the success of this approach on the minimal set basis problem, which has a wide range of applications e.g., in optimization, machine learning, and system security. We also show the effectiveness of our approach on a related application problem from materials discovery. In our approach, a large number of smaller sub-problems are identified and solved concurrently. We then aggregate the information from those solutions, and use this information to initialize the search of a global, complete solver. We show that this strategy leads to a significant speed-up over a sequential approach since the aggregated sub-problem solution information often provides key structural insights to the complete solver. Our approach also greatly outperforms state-of-the-art incomplete solvers in terms of solution quality. Our work opens up a novel angle for using parallelism to solve hard combinatorial problems.

While the number of women who choose to pursue computer science and engineering careers is growing, men continue to largely outnumber them. In this paper, we describe a data mining approach that relies on a large collection of scientific articles to identify differences in gender interests in this field. Our hope is that through a better understanding of the differences between male and female preferences, we can enable more effective outreach and retention, and consequently contribute to the growth of the number of women who choose to pursue careers in this field.

For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, a precise prediction method is required. In this work, we investigate the use of heterogeneous machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction. We first analyze homogeneous ensemble regressors that make use of a single base algorithm and compare decision trees to k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression. As next step, we construct heterogeneous ensembles that make use of multiple base algorithms and benefit from a gain of diversity of the weak predictors. In the experimental evaluation, we show that a combination of decision trees and support vector regression outperforms state-of-the-art predictors (improvements of up to 37% compared to support vector regression) as well as homogeneous ensembles while requiring a shorter runtime (speed-ups from 1.60x to 8.78x). The experiments are based on large wind time series data from simulations and real measurements.

We introduce the novel task of identifying important citations in scholarly literature, i.e., citations that indicate that the cited work is used or extended in the new effort. We believe this task is a crucial component in algorithms that detect and follow research topics and in methods that measure the quality of publications.We model this task as a supervised classification problem at two levels of detail: a coarse one with classes (important vs. non-important), and a more detailed one with four importance classes. We annotate a dataset of approximately 450 citations with this information, and release it publicly. We propose a supervised classification approach that addresses this task with a battery of features that range from citation counts to where the citation appears in the body of the paper, and show that,our approach achieves a precision of 65% for a recall of 90%.

Many recent planning heuristics are based on LP optimization. However, planning experts mostly use LP solvers as a black box and it is often not obvious to them which LP techniques would be most suitable for their specific applications.To foster the communication between the planning and the optimization community, this paper gives an easily accessible overview over these recent LP-based heuristics, namely the optimal cost partitioning heuristic for abstractions, the post-hoc optimization heuristic, a landmark heuristic, the state-equation heuristic, and a delete relaxation heuristic. All these heuristics fit the framework of so-called operator counting constraints, which we also present.

PDDL+ planning involves reasoning about mixed discrete-continuous change over time. Nearly all PDDL+ planners assume that continuous change is linear. We present a new technique that accommodates nonlinear change by encoding problems as nonlinear hybrid systems. Using this encoding, we apply a Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solver to find plans. We show that it is important to use novel planning- specific heuristics for variable and value selection for SMT solving, which is inspired by recent advances in planning as SAT. We show the promising performance of the resulting solver on challenging nonlinear problems.

Among the languages used for representing goals, actions and their consequences on the world for decision making and planning, GDL (Game Description Language) has the ability to represent complex actions in potentially uncertain and competitive environments. The aim of this paper is to exploit stochastic constraint networks in order to provide compact representations of strategic games, and to identify optimal policies in those games with generic forward checking method. From this perspective, we develop a compiler allowing to translate games, described in GDL, into instances of the Stochastic Constraint Optimization Problem (SCSP). Our compiler is proved correct for the class GDL of games with complete information and oblivious environment. The interest of our approach is illustrated by solving several GDL games with a SCSP solver.

How can knowing the location of my friends be used to more accurately predict my location? This paper explores socially-aware location prediction under a particularly challenging setting where the underlying interactions and social network are unknown and must be inferred over continuous spatiotemporal data. Our method samples inferred network topology using a linear regression model to predict future individual locations. We present an in-depth empirical study comparing different network models and network sampling regimes under a bootstrapped sampling baseline. Furthermore, our qualitative analysis demonstrates the value of social information in population mobility modeling under our application’s challenges.