A mixture of factor analyzers is a semi-parametric density estimator that generalizes the well-known mixtures of Gaussians model by allowing each Gaussian in the mixture to be represented in a different lower-dimensional manifold. This paper presents a robust and parsimonious model selection algorithm for training a mixture of factor analyzers, carrying out simultaneous clustering and locally linear, globally nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Permitting different number of factors per mixture component, the algorithm adapts the model complexity to the data complexity. We compare the proposed algorithm with related automatic model selection algorithms on a number of benchmarks. The results indicate the effectiveness of this fast and robust approach in clustering, manifold learning and class-conditional modeling.

We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. This novel approach pairs the Exponential Weights forecaster with a very large ensemble of experts. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mobile phone users in a European country. Average prediction accuracy is significantly higher than that of individual sequence prediction algorithms, namely constant order Markov models derived from the user's own data, that have been shown to achieve high accuracy in previous studies of human mobility prediction. The algorithm uses only time stamped location data, and accuracy depends on the completeness of the expert ensemble, which should contain redundant records of typical mobility patterns. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the prediction of any sufficiently large dataset of sequences.

This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowledge of the observation model is only provided by examples of state-observation pairs. This setting is important and appears when state variables are defined as quantities that are very different from the observations. We propose Kernel Monte Carlo Filter, a novel filtering method that is focused on this setting. Our approach is based on the framework of kernel mean embeddings, which enables nonparametric posterior inference using the state-observation examples. The proposed method represents state distributions as weighted samples, propagates these samples by sampling, estimates the state posteriors by Kernel Bayes' Rule, and resamples by Kernel Herding. In particular, the sampling and resampling procedures are novel in being expressed using kernel mean embeddings, so we theoretically analyze their behaviors. We reveal the following properties, which are similar to those of corresponding procedures in particle methods: (1) the performance of sampling can degrade if the effective sample size of a weighted sample is small; (2) resampling improves the sampling performance by increasing the effective sample size. We first demonstrate these theoretical findings by synthetic experiments. Then we show the effectiveness of the proposed filter by artificial and real data experiments, which include vision-based mobile robot localization.

In Deep Learning, a well-known approach for training a Deep Neural Network starts by training a generative Deep Belief Network model, typically using Contrastive Divergence (CD), then fine-tuning the weights using backpropagation or other discriminative techniques. However, the generative training can be time-consuming due to the slow mixing of Gibbs sampling. We investigated an alternative approach that estimates model expectations of Restricted Boltzmann Machines using samples from a D-Wave quantum annealing machine. We tested this method on a coarse-grained version of the MNIST data set. In our tests we found that the quantum sampling-based training approach achieves comparable or better accuracy with significantly fewer iterations of generative training than conventional CD-based training. Further investigation is needed to determine whether similar improvements can be achieved for other data sets, and to what extent these improvements can be attributed to quantum effects.

We propose a novel method for multiple clustering that assumes a co-clustering structure (partitions in both rows and columns of the data matrix) in each view. The new method is applicable to high-dimensional data. It is based on a nonparametric Bayesian approach in which the number of views and the number of feature-/subject clusters are inferred in a data-driven manner. We simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block. This makes our method applicable to datasets consisting of both numerical and categorical variables, which biomedical data typically do. Clustering solutions are based on variational inference with mean field approximation. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.

Inventory control with unknown demand distribution is considered, with emphasis placed on the case involving discrete nonperishable items. We focus on an adaptive policy which in every period uses, as much as possible, the optimal newsvendor ordering quantity for the empirical distribution learned up to that period. The policy is assessed using the regret criterion, which measures the price paid for ambiguity on demand distribution over $T$ periods. When there are guarantees on the latter's separation from the critical newsvendor parameter $\beta=b/(h+b)$, a constant upper bound on regret can be found. Without any prior information on the demand distribution, we show that the regret does not grow faster than the rate $T^{1/2+\epsilon}$ for any $\epsilon>0$. In view of a known lower bound, this is almost the best one could hope for. Simulation studies involving this along with other policies are also conducted.

We propose a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithm for scalable inference in mixed-membership stochastic blockmodels (MMSB). Our algorithm is based on the stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin sampler and achieves both faster speed and higher accuracy at every iteration than the current state-of-the-art algorithm based on stochastic variational inference. In addition we develop an approximation that can handle models that entertain a very large number of communities. The experimental results show that SG-MCMC strictly dominates competing algorithms in all cases.

A good measure of similarity between data points is crucial to many tasks in machine learning. Similarity and metric learning methods learn such measures automatically from data, but they do not scale well respect to the dimensionality of the data. In this paper, we propose a method that can learn efficiently similarity measure from high-dimensional sparse data. The core idea is to parameterize the similarity measure as a convex combination of rank-one matrices with specific sparsity structures. The parameters are then optimized with an approximate Frank-Wolfe procedure to maximally satisfy relative similarity constraints on the training data. Our algorithm greedily incorporates one pair of features at a time into the similarity measure, providing an efficient way to control the number of active features and thus reduce overfitting. It enjoys very appealing convergence guarantees and its time and memory complexity depends on the sparsity of the data instead of the dimension of the feature space. Our experiments on real-world high-dimensional datasets demonstrate its potential for classification, dimensionality reduction and data exploration.

The interplay between computational efficiency and statistical accuracy in high-dimensional inference has drawn increasing attention in the literature. In this paper, we study computational and statistical boundaries for submatrix localization. Given one observation of (one or multiple non-overlapping) signal submatrix (of magnitude $\lambda$ and size $k_m \times k_n$) contaminated with a noise matrix (of size $m \times n$), we establish two transition thresholds for the signal to noise $\lambda/\sigma$ ratio in terms of $m$, $n$, $k_m$, and $k_n$. The first threshold, $\sf SNR_c$, corresponds to the computational boundary. Below this threshold, it is shown that no polynomial time algorithm can succeed in identifying the submatrix, under the \textit{hidden clique hypothesis}. We introduce adaptive linear time spectral algorithms that identify the submatrix with high probability when the signal strength is above the threshold $\sf SNR_c$. The second threshold, $\sf SNR_s$, captures the statistical boundary, below which no method can succeed with probability going to one in the minimax sense. The exhaustive search method successfully finds the submatrix above this threshold. The results show an interesting phenomenon that $\sf SNR_c$ is always significantly larger than $\sf SNR_s$, which implies an essential gap between statistical optimality and computational efficiency for submatrix localization.

Max-convolution is an important problem closely resembling standard convolution; as such, max-convolution occurs frequently across many fields. Here we extend the method with fastest known worst-case runtime, which can be applied to nonnegative vectors by numerically approximating the Chebyshev norm $\| \cdot \|_\infty$, and use this approach to derive two numerically stable methods based on the idea of computing $p$-norms via fast convolution: The first method proposed, with runtime in $O( k \log(k) \log(\log(k)) )$ (which is less than $18 k \log(k)$ for any vectors that can be practically realized), uses the $p$-norm as a direct approximation of the Chebyshev norm. The second approach proposed, with runtime in $O( k \log(k) )$ (although in practice both perform similarly), uses a novel null space projection method, which extracts information from a sequence of $p$-norms to estimate the maximum value in the vector (this is equivalent to querying a small number of moments from a distribution of bounded support in order to estimate the maximum). The $p$-norm approaches are compared to one another and are shown to compute an approximation of the Viterbi path in a hidden Markov model where the transition matrix is a Toeplitz matrix; the runtime of approximating the Viterbi path is thus reduced from $O( n k^2 )$ steps to $O( n $k \log(k))$ steps in practice, and is demonstrated by inferring the U.S. unemployment rate from the S&P 500 stock index.