University of South Carolina, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbia, SC 29201 Send proofs to: Anthony M. Scopatz scopatz@cec.sc.edu 541 Main Street, Columbia, SC 29208 Number of Pages: 35 Number of Tables: 0 Number of Figures: 11 Keywords: nuclear fuel cycle, gaussian process, dynamic time warping Abstract A method for quickly determining deployment schedules that meet a given fuel cycle demand is presented here. This algorithm is fast enough to perform in situ within low-fidelity fuel cycle simulators. It uses Gaussian process regression models to predict the production curve as a function of time and the number of deployed facilities. Each of these predictions is measured against the demand curve using the dynamic time warping distance. The minimum distance deployment schedule is evaluated in a full fuel cycle simulation, whose generated production curve then informs the model on the next optimization iteration. The method converges within five to ten iterations to a distance that is less than one percent of the total deployable production. A representative once-through fuel cycle is used to demonstrate the methodology for reactor deployment. I INTRODUCTION With the recent advent of agent-based nuclear fuel cycle simulators, such as Cyclus [1, 2], there comes the possibility to make in situ, dynamic facility deployment decisions. This would more fully model real-world fuel cycles where institutions (such as utility companies) predict future demand and choose their future deployment schedules appropriately. However, one of the major challenges to making in situ deployment decisions is the speed at which "good enough" decisions can be made. This paper proposes three related deployment-specific optimization algorithms that can be used for any demand curve and facility type. The demands of a fuel cycle scenario can often be simply stated, e.g. Here, the dynamic time warping (DTW) [3] distance is minimized between the demand curve and the regression of a Gaussian Process model (GP) [4] of prior simulations. This minimization produces a guess for a deployment schedule which is subsequently tested using an actual simulator. This process is repeated until an optimal deployment schedule for the given demand is found. Importantly, by using the Gaussian process surrogates, the number of simulation realizations that must be executed as part of the optimization may be reduced to only a handful. Furthermore, it is at least two orders-of-magnitude faster to test the model than it is to run a single low-fidelity fuel cycle simulation. Because of the relative computational cheapness, it is suitable to be used inside of a fuel cycle simulation.

Motivated by vision-based reinforcement learning (RL) problems, in particular Atari games from the recent benchmark Aracade Learning Environment (ALE), we consider spatio-temporal prediction problems where future (image-)frames are dependent on control variables or actions as well as previous frames. While not composed of natural scenes, frames in Atari games are high-dimensional in size, can involve tens of objects with one or more objects being controlled by the actions directly and many other objects being influenced indirectly, can involve entry and departure of objects, and can involve deep partial observability. We propose and evaluate two deep neural network architectures that consist of encoding, action-conditional transformation, and decoding layers based on convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks. Experimental results show that the proposed architectures are able to generate visually-realistic frames that are also useful for control over approximately 100-step action-conditional futures in some games. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to make and evaluate long-term predictions on high-dimensional video conditioned by control inputs.

We study modeling and inference with the Elliptical Gamma Distribution (EGD). We consider maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for EGD scatter matrices, a task for which we develop new fixed-point algorithms. Our algorithms are efficient and converge to global optima despite nonconvexity. Moreover, they turn out to be much faster than both a well-known iterative algorithm of Kent & Tyler (1991) and sophisticated manifold optimization algorithms. Subsequently, we invoke our ML algorithms as subroutines for estimating parameters of a mixture of EGDs. We illustrate our methods by applying them to model natural image statistics---the proposed EGD mixture model yields the most parsimonious model among several competing approaches.

We investigate a local reparameterizaton technique for greatly reducing the variance of stochastic gradients for variational Bayesian inference (SGVB) of a posterior over model parameters, while retaining parallelizability. This local reparameterization translates uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such parameterizations can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence. Additionally, we explore a connection with dropout: Gaussian dropout objectives correspond to SGVB with local reparameterization, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose variational dropout, a generalization of Gaussian dropout where the dropout rates are learned, often leading to better models. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

The covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional random variable is a fundamental quantity in data analysis. Given $n$ i.i.d. observations, it is typically estimated by the sample covariance matrix, at a computational cost of $O(np^{2})$ operations. When $n,p$ are large, this computation may be prohibitively slow. Moreover, in several contemporary applications, the population matrix is approximately sparse, and only its few large entries are of interest. This raises the following question, at the focus of our work: Assuming approximate sparsity of the covariance matrix, can its large entries be detected much faster, say in sub-quadratic time, without explicitly computing all its $p^{2}$ entries? In this paper, we present and theoretically analyze two randomized algorithms that detect the large entries of an approximately sparse sample covariance matrix using only $O(np\text{ poly log } p)$ operations. Furthermore, assuming sparsity of the population matrix, we derive sufficient conditions on the underlying random variable and on the number of samples $n$, for the sample covariance matrix to satisfy our approximate sparsity requirements. Finally, we illustrate the performance of our algorithms via several simulations.

Abstract--We use machine learning for designing a medium frequency trading strategy for a portfolio of 5 year and 10 year US Treasury note futures. We formulate this as a classification problem where we predict the weekly direction of movement of the portfolio using features extracted from a deep belief network trained on technical indicators of the portfolio constituents. The experimentation shows that the resulting pipeline is effective in making a profitable trade. I. INTRODUCTION AND RELATED WORK Machine learning application in finance is a challenging problem owing to low signal to noise ratio. Moreover, domain expertise is essential for engineering features which assist in solving an appropriate classification or regression problem.

Emerging ontology authoring methods to add knowledge to an ontology focus on ameliorating the validation bottleneck. The verification of the newly added axiom is still one of trying and seeing what the reasoner says, because a systematic testbed for ontology authoring is missing. We sought to address this by introducing the approach of test-driven development for ontology authoring. We specify 36 generic tests, as TBox queries and TBox axioms tested through individuals, and structure their inner workings in an `open box'-way, which cover the OWL 2 DL language features. This is implemented as a Protege plugin so that one can perform a TDD test as a black box test. We evaluated the two test approaches on their performance. The TBox queries were faster, and that effect is more pronounced the larger the ontology is. We provide a general sequence of a TDD process for ontology engineering as a foundation for a TDD methodology.

We study a new class of codes for lossy compression with the squared-error distortion criterion, designed using the statistical framework of high-dimensional linear regression. Codewords are linear combinations of subsets of columns of a design matrix. Called a Sparse Superposition or Sparse Regression codebook, this structure is motivated by an analogous construction proposed recently by Barron and Joseph for communication over an AWGN channel. For i.i.d Gaussian sources and minimum-distance encoding, we show that such a code can attain the Shannon rate-distortion function with the optimal error exponent, for all distortions below a specified value. It is also shown that sparse regression codes are robust in the following sense: a codebook designed to compress an i.i.d Gaussian source of variance $\sigma^2$ with (squared-error) distortion $D$ can compress any ergodic source of variance less than $\sigma^2$ to within distortion $D$. Thus the sparse regression ensemble retains many of the good covering properties of the i.i.d random Gaussian ensemble, while having having a compact representation in terms of a matrix whose size is a low-order polynomial in the block-length.

We study mechanisms for candidate selection that seek to minimize the social cost, where voters and candidates are associated with points in some underlying metric space. The social cost of a candidate is the sum of its distances to each voter. Some of our work assumes that these points can be modeled on a real line, but other results of ours are more general. A question closely related to candidate selection is that of minimizing the sum of distances for facility location. The difference is that in our setting there is a fixed set of candidates, whereas the large body of work on facility location seems to consider every point in the metric space to be a possible candidate. This gives rise to three types of mechanisms which differ in the granularity of their input space (voting, ranking and location mechanisms). We study the relationships between these three classes of mechanisms. While it may seem that Black's 1948 median algorithm is optimal for candidate selection on the line, this is not the case. We give matching upper and lower bounds for a variety of settings. In particular, when candidates and voters are on the line, our universally truthful spike mechanism gives a [tight] approximation of two. When assessing candidate selection mechanisms, we seek several desirable properties: (a) efficiency (minimizing the social cost) (b) truthfulness (dominant strategy incentive compatibility) and (c) simplicity (a smaller input space). We quantify the effect that truthfulness and simplicity impose on the efficiency.

Although consistency is a minimum requirement of any estimator, little is known about consistency of the mean partition approach in consensus clustering. This contribution studies the asymptotic behavior of mean partitions. We show that under normal assumptions, the mean partition approach is consistent and asymptotic normal. To derive both results, we represent partitions as points of some geometric space, called orbit space. Then we draw on results from the theory of Fr\'echet means and stochastic programming. The asymptotic properties hold for continuous extensions of standard cluster criteria (indices). The results justify consensus clustering using finite but sufficiently large sample sizes. Furthermore, the orbit space framework provides a mathematical foundation for studying further statistical, geometrical, and analytical properties of sets of partitions.