Model-based approaches for (bio)process systems often suffer from incomplete knowledge of the underlying physical, chemical, or biological laws. Universal differential equations, which embed neural networks within differential equations, have emerged as powerful tools to learn this missing physics from experimental data. However, neural networks are inherently opaque, motivating their post-processing via symbolic regression to obtain interpretable mathematical expressions. Genetic algorithm-based symbolic regression is a popular approach for this post-processing step, but provides only point estimates and cannot quantify the confidence we should place in a discovered equation. We address this limitation by applying Bayesian symbolic regression, which uses Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution over symbolic expression trees. This approach naturally quantifies uncertainty in the recovered model structure. We demonstrate the methodology on a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system and then show how a well-designed experiment leads to lower uncertainty in a fed-batch bioreactor case study.

In a spiking neural network, is it enough for each neuron to spike at most once? In recent work, approximation bounds for spiking neural networks have been derived, quantifying how well they can fit target functions. However, these results are only valid for neurons that spike at most once, which is commonly thought to be a strong limitation. Here, we show that the opposite is true for a large class of spiking neuron models, including the commonly used leaky integrate-and-fire model with subtractive reset: for every approximation bound that is valid for a set of multi-spike neural networks, there is an equivalent set of single-spike neural networks with only linearly more neurons (in the maximum number of spikes) for which the bound holds. The same is true for the reverse direction too, showing that regarding their approximation capabilities in general machine learning tasks, single-spike and multi-spike neural networks are equivalent. Consequently, many approximation results in the literature for single-spike neural networks also hold for the multi-spike case.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance on diverse benchmarks, yet existing evaluation practices largely rely on coarse summary metrics that obscure underlying reasoning abilities. In this work, we propose novel methodologies to adapt cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) in psychometrics to LLM evaluation, enabling fine-grained diagnosis via multidimensional discrete capability profiles and interpretable characterizations of LLM strengths and weaknesses. First, to enable CDM-based evaluation at benchmark scale (more than 1000 items), we propose a scalable method that jointly estimates LLM mastery profiles and the item-attribute Q-matrix, addressing key challenges posed by high-dimensional latent attributes (K > 20), large item pools, and the prohibitive computational cost of existing marginal maximum likelihood-based estimation. Second, we incorporate item-level textual information to construct AI-embedding-informed priors for the Q-matrix, stabilizing high-dimensional estimation while reducing reliance on costly human specification. We develop an efficient stochastic-approximation algorithm to jointly estimate LLM mastery profiles and the Q-matrix that balances data fit with text-embedding-informed priors. Simulation studies demonstrate accurate parameter recovery. An application to the MATH Level 5 benchmark illustrates the practical utility of our method for LLM evaluation and uncovers useful insights into LLMs' fine-grained capabilities.

Standard policy gradients weight each sampled action by advantage alone, regardless of how likely that action was under the current policy. This creates two pathologies: within a single decision context (e.g. one image or prompt), a rare negative-advantage action can disproportionately distort the update direction; across many such contexts in a batch, the expected gradient over-allocates budget to contexts the policy already handles well. We introduce the \textit{Delightful Policy Gradient} (DG), which gates each term with a sigmoid of \emph{delight}, the product of advantage and action surprisal (negative log-probability). For $K$-armed bandits, DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and, across multiple contexts, shifts the expected gradient strictly closer to the supervised cross-entropy oracle. This second effect is not variance reduction: it persists even with infinite samples. Empirically, DG outperforms REINFORCE, PPO, and advantage-weighted baselines across MNIST, transformer sequence modeling, and continuous control, with larger gains on harder tasks.

Channel state information (CSI) feedback in frequency-division duplex (FDD) massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems is fundamentally limited by the high dimensionality of wideband channels. In this paper, we model the stacked wideband CSI vector as a Gaussian-mixture source with a latent geometry state that represents different propagation environments. Each component corresponds to a locally stationary regime characterized by a correlated proper complex Gaussian distribution with its own covariance matrix. This representation captures the multimodal nature of practical CSI datasets while preserving the analytical tractability of Gaussian models. Motivated by this structure, we propose Gaussian-mixture transform coding (GMTC), a practical CSI feedback architecture that combines state inference with state-adaptive TC. The mixture parameters are learned offline from channel samples and stored as a shared statistical dictionary at both the user equipment (UE) and the base station. For each CSI realization, the UE identifies the most likely geometry state, encodes the corresponding label using a lossless source code, and compresses the CSI using the Karhunen-Loeve transform matched to that state. We further characterize the fundamental limits of CSI compression under this model by deriving analytical converse and achievability bounds on the rate-distortion (RD) function. A key structural result is that the optimal bit allocation across all mixture components is governed by a single global reverse-waterfilling level. Simulations on the COST2100 dataset show that GMTC significantly improves the RD tradeoff relative to neural transform coding approaches while requiring substantially smaller model memory and lower inference complexity. These results indicate that near-optimal CSI compression can be achieved through state-adaptive TC without relying on large neural encoders.

In this paper, we analyze the two time-scale stochastic approximation (TTSSA) algorithm introduced in Borkar (1997) using a martingale approach. This approach leads to simple sufficient conditions for the iterations to be bounded almost surely, as well as estimates on the rate of convergence of the mean-squared error of the TTSSA algorithm to zero. Our theory is applicable to nonlinear equations, in contrast to many papers in the TTSSA literature which assume that the equations are linear. The convergence of TTSSA is proved in the "almost sure" sense, in contrast to earlier papers on TTSSA that establish convergence in distribution, convergence in the mean, and the like. Moreover, in this paper we establish different rates of convergence for the fast and the slow subsystems, perhaps for the first time. Finally, all of the above results to continue to hold in the case where the two measurement errors have nonzero conditional mean, and/or have conditional variances that grow without bound as the iterations proceed. This is in contrast to previous papers which assumed that the errors form a martingale difference sequence with uniformly bounded conditional variance. It is shown that when the measurement errors have zero conditional mean and the conditional variance remains bounded, the mean-squared error of the iterations converges to zero at a rate of $o(t^{-η})$ for all $η\in (0,1)$. This improves upon the rate of $O(t^{-2/3})$ proved in Doan (2023) (which is the best bound available to date). Our bound is virtually the same as the rate of $O(t^{-1})$ proved in Doan (2024), but for a Polyak-Ruppert averaged version of TTSSA, and not directly. Rates of convergence are also established for the case where the errors have nonzero conditional mean and/or unbounded conditional variance.

Recent work in machine learning increasingly attributes human-like capabilities such as reasoning or theory of mind to large language models (LLMs) on the basis of benchmark performance. This paper examines this practice through the lens of construct validity, understood as the problem of linking theoretical capabilities to their empirical measurements. It contrasts three influential frameworks: the nomological account developed by Cronbach and Meehl, the inferential account proposed by Messick and refined by Kane, and Borsboom's causal account. I argue that the nomological account provides the most suitable foundation for current LLM capability research. It avoids the strong ontological commitments of the causal account while offering a more substantive framework for articulating construct meaning than the inferential account. I explore the conceptual implications of adopting the nomological account for LLM research through a concrete case: the assessment of reasoning capabilities in LLMs.

Kernel methods are widely used in causal inference for tasks such as treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, and policy learning. The bootstrap is a standard tool for uncertainty quantification because of its broad applicability. As increasingly large datasets become available, such as the 2023 U.S. Natality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), which includes 3,596,017 registered births, the computational demands of these methods increase substantially. Kernel methods are known to scale poorly with sample size, and this limitation is further exacerbated by the repeated re-fitting required by the bootstrap. As a result, bootstrap-based inference for kernel-based estimators can become computationally infeasible in large-scale settings. In this paper, we address these challenges by extending the causal Bag of Little Bootstraps (cBLB) algorithm to kernel methods. Our approach achieves computational scalability by combining subsampling and resampling while preserving first-order uncertainty quantification and asymptotically correct coverage. We evaluate the method across three representative implementations: kernelized augmented outcome-weighted learning, kernel-based minimax weighting, and double machine learning with kernel support vector machines. We show in simulations that our method yields confidence intervals with nominal coverage at a fraction of the computational cost. We further demonstrate its utility in a real-world application by estimating the effect of any amount of smoking on birth weight, as well as the optimal treatment regime, using the NVSS dataset, where the standard bootstrap is prohibitively expensive computationally and effectively infeasible at this scale.

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward models/hypotheses consistent with observations. Over large model families, classical Bayesian workflows for model selection are impractical. Furthermore, amortized model selection methods typically hard-code a fixed model prior or complexity penalty at training time, requiring users to commit to a particular parsimony assumption before seeing the data. We introduce PRISM, a simulation-based encoder-decoder that infers a joint posterior over both discrete model structures and associated continuous parameters, while enabling test-time control of model complexity via a tunable model prior that the network is conditioned on. We show that PRISM scales to families with combinatorially many (up to billions) of model instantiations on a synthetic symbolic regression task. As a scientific application, we evaluate PRISM on biophysical modeling for diffusion MRI data, showing the ability to perform model selection across several multi-compartment models, on both synthetic and in vivo neuroimaging data.

Diffusion models operate in a reflexive System 1 mode, constrained by a fixed, content-agnostic sampling schedule. This rigidity arises from the curse of state dimensionality, where the combinatorial explosion of possible states in the high-dimensional noise manifold renders explicit trajectory planning intractable and leads to systematic computational misallocation. To address this, we introduce Chain-of-Trajectories (CoTj), a train-free framework enabling System 2 deliberative planning. Central to CoTj is Diffusion DNA, a low-dimensional signature that quantifies per-stage denoising difficulty and serves as a proxy for the high-dimensional state space, allowing us to reformulate sampling as graph planning on a directed acyclic graph. Through a Predict-Plan-Execute paradigm, CoTj dynamically allocates computational effort to the most challenging generative phases. Experiments across multiple generative models demonstrate that CoTj discovers context-aware trajectories, improving output quality and stability while reducing redundant computation. This work establishes a new foundation for resource-aware, planning-based diffusion modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/UnicomAI/CoTj.