In practical machine learning, the environments encountered during the model development and deployment phases often differ, especially when a model is used by many users in diverse settings. Learning models that maintain reliable performance across plausible deployment environments is known as distributionally robust (DR) learning. In this work, we study the problem of distributionally robust feature selection (DRFS), with a particular focus on sparse sensing applications motivated by industrial needs. In practical multi-sensor systems, a shared subset of sensors is typically selected prior to deployment based on performance evaluations using many available sensors. At deployment, individual users may further adapt or fine-tune models to their specific environments. When deployment environments differ from those anticipated during development, this strategy can result in systems lacking sensors required for optimal performance. To address this issue, we propose safe-DRFS, a novel approach that extends safe screening from conventional sparse modeling settings to a DR setting under covariate shift. Our method identifies a feature subset that encompasses all subsets that may become optimal across a specified range of input distribution shifts, with finite-sample theoretical guarantees of no false feature elimination.

In this work, we present a new deterministic partition-based global optimization algorithm, HALO (Hybrid Adaptive Lipschitzian Optimization), which uses estimates of the local Lipschitz constants associated with different sub-regions of the objective function's domain to compute lower bounds and guide the search toward global minimizers. These estimates are obtained by adaptively balancing the global and local information collected from the algorithm, based on absolute slopes. HALO is hyperparameter-free, eliminating the need for manual tuning, and it highlights the most important variables to help interpret the optimization problem. We also introduce a coupling strategy with local optimization algorithms, both gradient-based and derivative-free, to accelerate convergence. We compare HALO with popular global optimization algorithms on hundreds of test functions. The numerical results are very promising and demonstrate that HALO can expand our arsenal of efficient procedures of efficient procedures for challenging real-world black-box optimization problems. The Python code of HALO is publicly available on GitHub. https://github.com/dannyzx/HALO

The interception of agile aerial targets using autonomous drones is a challenging and increasingly relevant problem in robotics and security. The increasing presence of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in unauthorized, restricted airspaces poses significant safety and security risks and has spurred interest in developing effective interception strategies [1] In particular, scenarios such as airspace protection, infrastructure security, and event safety require the ability to capture or neutralize unauthorized drones with high precision and minimal collateral risk. Deploying interceptor drones equipped with nets is apromising approach, but it demandsadvanced control capabilities to match or exceed the agility of evasive targets. Traditional interception methods often rely on accurate models, preplanned strategies, or predictable target behaviour [2]. However, modern quadrotor drones can perform highly dynamic manoeuvres, and will actively evade capture, rendering their trajectories unpredictable and challenging the effectiveness of classical methods [3].

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings, including healthcare, finance, and mobile sensing, the calibration data required for CP are distributed across multiple clients, each with its own local data distribution. In this federated setting, data can often be partitioned into, potentially overlapping, groups, which may reflect client-specific strata or cross-cutting attributes such as demographic or semantic categories. We propose group-conditional federated conformal prediction (GC-FCP), a novel protocol that provides group-conditional coverage guarantees. GC-FCP constructs mergeable, group-stratified coresets from local calibration scores, enabling clients to communicate compact weighted summaries that support efficient aggregation and calibration at the server. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the performance of GC-FCP compared to centralized calibration baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as decision-support tools in data-constrained scientific workflows, where correctness and validity are critical. However, evaluation practices often emphasize stability or reproducibility across repeated runs. While these properties are desirable, stability alone does not guar- antee agreement with statistical ground truth when such references are available. We introduce a controlled behavioral evaluation framework that explicitly sep- arates four dimensions of LLM decision-making: stability, correctness, prompt sensitivity, and output validity under fixed statistical inputs. We evaluate multi- ple LLMs using a statistical gene prioritization task derived from differential ex- pression analysis across prompt regimes involving strict and relaxed significance thresholds, borderline ranking scenarios, and minor wording variations. Our ex- periments show that LLMs can exhibit near-perfect run-to-run stability while sys- tematically diverging from statistical ground truth, over-selecting under relaxed thresholds, responding sharply to minor prompt wording changes, or producing syntactically plausible gene identifiers absent from the input table. Although sta- bility reflects robustness across repeated runs, it does not guarantee agreement with statistical ground truth in structured scientific decision tasks. These findings highlight the importance of explicit ground-truth validation and output validity checks when deploying LLMs in automated or semi-automated scientific work- flows.

We consider computationally-efficient estimation of population parameters when observations are subject to missing data. In particular, we consider estimation under the realizable contamination model of missing data in which an $ε$ fraction of the observations are subject to an arbitrary (and unknown) missing not at random (MNAR) mechanism. When the true data is Gaussian, we provide evidence towards statistical-computational gaps in several problems. For mean estimation in $\ell_2$ norm, we show that in order to obtain error at most $ρ$, for any constant contamination $ε\in (0, 1)$, (roughly) $n \gtrsim d e^{1/ρ^2}$ samples are necessary and that there is a computationally-inefficient algorithm which achieves this error. On the other hand, we show that any computationally-efficient method within certain popular families of algorithms requires a much larger sample complexity of (roughly) $n \gtrsim d^{1/ρ^2}$ and that there exists a polynomial time algorithm based on sum-of-squares which (nearly) achieves this lower bound. For covariance estimation in relative operator norm, we show that a parallel development holds. Finally, we turn to linear regression with missing observations and show that such a gap does not persist. Indeed, in this setting we show that minimizing a simple, strongly convex empirical risk nearly achieves the information-theoretic lower bound in polynomial time.

The global Lipschitz smoothness condition underlies most convergence and complexity analyses via two key consequences: the descent lemma and the gradient Lipschitz continuity. How to study the performance of optimization algorithms in the absence of Lipschitz smoothness remains an active area. The relative smoothness framework from Bauschke-Bolte-Teboulle (2017) and Lu-Freund-Nesterov (2018) provides an extended descent lemma, ensuring convergence of Bregman-based proximal gradient methods and their vanilla stochastic counterparts. However, many widely used techniques (e.g., momentum schemes, random reshuffling, and variance reduction) additionally require the Lipschitz-type bound for gradient deviations, leaving their analysis under relative smoothness an open area. To resolve this issue, we introduce the dual kernel conditioning (DKC) regularity condition to regulate the local relative curvature of the kernel functions. Combined with the relative smoothness, DKC provides a dual Lipschitz continuity for gradients: even though the gradient mapping is not Lipschitz in the primal space, it preserves Lipschitz continuity in the dual space induced by a mirror map. We verify that DKC is widely satisfied by popular kernels and is closed under affine composition and conic combination. With these novel tools, we establish the first complexity bounds as well as the iterate convergence of random reshuffling mirror descent for constrained nonconvex relative smooth problems.

Classical Monte Carlo methods for pricing catastrophe insurance tail risk converge at order reciprocal root N, requiring large simulation budgets to resolve upper-tail percentiles of the loss distribution. This sample-sparsity problem can lead to AI models trained on impoverished tail data, producing poorly calibrated risk estimates where insolvency risk is greatest. Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE), following Montanaro, achieves convergence approaching order reciprocal N in oracle queries - a quadratic speedup that, at scale, would enable high-resolution tail estimation within practical budgets. We validate this advantage empirically using a Qiskit Aer simulator with genuine Grover amplification. A complete pipeline encodes fitted lognormal catastrophe distributions into quantum oracles via amplitude encoding, producing small readout probabilities that enable safe Grover amplification with up to k=16 iterations. Seven experiments on synthetic and real (NOAA Storm Events, 58,028 records) data yield three main findings: an oracle-model advantage, that strong classical baselines win when analytical access is available, and that discretisation, not estimation, is the current bottleneck.

We study mean estimation for a Gaussian distribution with identity covariance in $\mathbb{R}^d$ under a missing data scheme termed realizable $ε$-contamination model. In this model an adversary can choose a function $r(x)$ between 0 and $ε$ and each sample $x$ goes missing with probability $r(x)$. Recent work Ma et al., 2024 proposed this model as an intermediate-strength setting between Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) -- where missingness is independent of the data -- and Missing Not At Random (MNAR) -- where missingness may depend arbitrarily on the sample values and can lead to non-identifiability issues. That work established information-theoretic upper and lower bounds for mean estimation in the realizable contamination model. Their proposed estimators incur runtime exponential in the dimension, leaving open the possibility of computationally efficient algorithms in high dimensions. In this work, we establish an information-computation gap in the Statistical Query model (and, as a corollary, for Low-Degree Polynomials and PTF tests), showing that algorithms must either use substantially more samples than information-theoretically necessary or incur exponential runtime. We complement our SQ lower bound with an algorithm whose sample-time tradeoff nearly matches our lower bound. Together, these results qualitatively characterize the complexity of Gaussian mean estimation under $ε$-realizable contamination.

We present a theoretical framework that reinterprets Population Annealing (PA) through the lens of the discrete-time Schrödinger Bridge (SB) problem. We demonstrate that the heuristic reweighting step in PA is derived by analytically solving the Schrödinger system without iterative computation via instantaneous projection. In addition, we identify the thermodynamic work as the optimal control potential that solves the global variational problem on path space. This perspective unifies non-equilibrium thermodynamics with the geometric framework of optimal transport, interpreting the Jarzynski equality as a consistency condition within the Donsker-Varadhan variational principle, and elucidates the thermodynamic optimality of PA.