Technology
Improving day-ahead Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting by Leveraging Spatio-Temporal Context
Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate day-ahead time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.
Further Details
A.1 Dataset Details The 20 micro-variations of the 5 macro-variations of the scene were created with the rule of swapping at least two furniture pieces and perturbing the positions of a subset of the other furniture pieces. The occurrences of various furniture objects in these 100 micro-variations are illustrated in Figure 1. Several furniture objects such as'Beanbag' and'Chair' occur more frequently with multiple instances in a some scenes while others such as'Table 03' occur less frequently. We also analyze the object categories of all objects in the original 6 'FRL-apartment' space recreations. We map each of the 92 objects to a semantic category and list the counts per semantic category in a histogram in Figure 1. Since these spaces have a large kitchen area, there is a larger ratio of kitchen objects such as'Kitchen utensil' and'Bowl'. Top down views of the 5 'macro variations' of the scenes are shown in Figure 1. These variations are 5 semantically plausible configurations of furniture in the space generated by a 3D artist. Each surface is annotated with a bounding box, enabling procedural placement of objects on the surfaces. For each of these 5 variations, we generate 20 additional variations, giving 105 scene layouts. Objects are procedurally added on furniture and surfaces using the annotated supporting surface and containment volume information provided by ReplicaCAD.
Honesty Is the Best Policy: Defining and Mitigating AIDeception
Deceptive agents are a challenge for the safety, trustworthiness, and cooperation of AI systems. We focus on the problem that agents might deceive in order to achieve their goals (for instance, in our experiments with language models, the goal of being evaluated as truthful). There are a number of existing definitions of deception in the literature on game theory and symbolic AI, but there is no overarching theory of deception for learning agents in games. We introduce a formal definition of deception in structural causal games, grounded in the philosophy literature, and applicable to real-world machine learning systems. Several examples and results illustrate that our formal definition aligns with the philosophical and commonsense meaning of deception. Our main technical result is to provide graphical criteria for deception. We show, experimentally, that these results can be used to mitigate deception in reinforcement learning agents and language models.
Algorithm
The algorithm to generate AugMax images from clean images (i.e., to solve Eq. (4)) is summarized in Algorithm 1, where we employ an accelerated adversarial attack method [28] to reduce complexity. The basic idea behind the acceleration is to early-stop gradient ascend when misclassification has already occurred in kiterations. For all our experiments, we use k = 1, n= 5and α= 0.1. Output: AugMax image x 1 Randomly initialize m [0,1]and p Rb. 2 w σ(p) // σ()is softmax function. Output: Learned parameter θfor f(). 1 Randomly initialize θ. 2 for t 1 to T do 3 Sample images and corresponding labels {(xi,yi)}Bi=1 from D. 4 for i 1 to Bdo 5 Generate AugMax image x i from xi following Algorithm 1. 6 end 7 θ θ ρ θ 1B PB i=1{ 1 The algorithm to train a robust classifier with AugMax images (i.e., to solve Eq. (5)) is summarized in Algorithm 2. For AdvMix and AdvMax, we use the worst-of-k method [71] to do adversarial attack on the augmentation hyperparameters such as rotation angles and translation pixel numbers, where k is set to 5. Specifically, for AdvMix, we first randomly select augmentation operations types and mixing parameters as done in AugMix.