Infrastructure deterioration poses significant challenges for asset management, yet existing approaches rely on population-averaged models that overlook equipment-specific heterogeneity. We present a novel framework that combines Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling with causal discovery to identify operational patterns that drive heterogeneous deterioration rates in pump equipment. Our approach first estimates pump-specific random effects $u_i$ using GPU-accelerated No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS), achieving 3--5$\times$ speedup over CPU implementations. We then employ DirectLiNGAM to discover causal relationships between 22 engineered time-series features and deterioration rates, stratified by positive ($u_i > 0$, faster deterioration) versus negative ($u_i \leq 0$, slower deterioration) random effects. Analyzing 112 pumps with 92,861 observations over 650 days, we uncover striking heterogeneity: the negative group exhibits causal effects 400$\times$ larger than the positive group, with standard deviation (std) showing a strong positive causal effect ($+1.515$) on deterioration rates in low-risk equipment. We validate linearity assumptions through NonlinearLiNGAM comparison and demonstrate practical scalability through GPU acceleration. Our findings enable targeted maintenance strategies by revealing that different operational regimes require fundamentally distinct management approaches, advancing predictive maintenance from population-averaged to heterogeneity-aware decision making.

The Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension is the fundamental combinatorial parameter of distribution-free binary classification. Introduced by Vapnik and Chervonenkis in their work on uniform convergence [VC71], and closely connected to the Sauer-Shelah lemma [Sau72, She72], it characterizes classical PAC learnability [Val84, BEHW89, EHKV89]. In particular, finite VC dimension is equivalent to distribution-free learnability. This paper asks whether that finite-versus-infinite VC dichotomy is still visible after replacing a concept class by its contradiction graphs. For a binary class H {0,1}X, the order-m contradiction graph Gm(H) has as vertices the H-realizable labeled samples of length m, with an edge between two samples if they assign opposite labels to some common domain point. Throughout, samples are ordered sequences, and repetitions of domain points are allowed, subject to consistent labeling. We use the contradiction-graph framework introduced by Alon et al. in their graph-theoretic characterization of private learnability [AMSY24]. They ask whether two binary classes can have isomorphic contradiction graphs at every level while one has finite VC dimension and the other has infinite VC dimension.

Effective medication management in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is challenging due to heterogeneous disease progression, variable patient response, and medication side effects. While AI models can forecast levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) as a measure of medication needs, standard uncertainty quantification often fails to communicate the reliability of these predictions, treating high and low confidence clinical decisions identically. We introduce CASCADE (Calibrated Adaptive Scaling via Conformal And Distributional Estimation), a novel conformal prediction framework that propagates epistemic uncertainty from a screening classifier to adapt downstream predictions. Unlike standard conformal methods that rely on auxiliary residual regression, we leverage epistemic uncertainty from a primary classification task (identifying whether a medication change is needed) to dynamically scale the prediction intervals of a secondary regression task (predicting how much change). By mapping Venn-Abers multi-probabilistic uncertainty directly to non-conformity scores, our framework achieves continuous risk adaptation. We demonstrate that this ``cascade effect'' produces highly efficient intervals for confident patients (38.9% narrower than standard conformal baselines) while automatically expanding intervals to ensure robust coverage for uncertain cases, bridging the gap between discrete clinical decision-making and continuous dose forecasting in PD.

We address out-of-distribution (OOD) detection across the full spectrum of distribution shifts -- global domain changes, semantic divergence, texture differences, and covariate corruptions -- through a multi-encoder fusion of per-encoder representation-space diffusion models (RDMs). We statistically identify each encoder's sensitivity to specific shift types from ID data alone and introduce EncMin2L -- an encoder-agnostic two-level $\min(\cdot)$-gate that combines and calibrates per-encoder diffusion-based likelihood detectors without OOD labels, outperforming monolithic multi-encoder baselines at $2.3\times$ lower parameter cost. Two ID-data diagnostics: $η^2$ (class-conditional F-test) and $Δμ$ (log-likelihood shift under synthetic corruptions) -- quantify encoder specialization, while a Tippett minimum $p$-value combination aggregates per-encoder scores into a single, calibration-stable OOD signal. EncMin2L achieves $\geq 0.94$ AUROC across all four shift types simultaneously, outperforming the state-of-the-art representation-space diffusion OOD detectors across overlapping benchmarks.

While deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, their underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, and they are often regarded as black boxes. This gap between empirical performance and theoretical understanding poses a challenge analogous to the pre-axiomatic stage of classical geometry. In this work, we introduce the Pursuit of Subspaces (PoS) hypothesis, an axiomatic framework that formulates neural network behavior through a set of geometric postulates. These axioms, together with their derived consequences, provide a unified perspective on representation, computation, and generalization in both shallow and deep architectures. We show that this framework yields geometric explanations for fundamental questions in deep learning, including representation structure, architectural mechanisms, and generalization behavior, offering a principled step toward a coherent theoretical foundation.

Transfer learning is an essential technique for many machine learning/AI models of complex structures such as large language models and generative AI. The essence of transfer learning is to leverage knowledge from resolved source tasks for a new target task, especially when the sample size $m$ of the training data for the latter is low. In this work, we rigorously analyze the potential benefit of transfer learning in terms of sample efficiency. Specifically, taking an optimal transport viewpoint of transfer learning, we find that when the data dimension $d$ is higher than $3$, the sample complexity for transfer learning is $O(m^{-(α+1)/d})$, with $α$ indicating the smoothness of the data distribution, as opposed to the $O(m^{-p/d})$ sample complexity for direct learning with $p$ indicating the smoothness of the optimal target model. Our finding theoretically supports a better sample efficiency for transfer learning, when the target task is optimizing over a family of not-so-smooth models (i.e., highly complex networks with the possible use of non-smooth activation functions). Using image classification as an example, we numerically demonstrate the sample efficiency for transfer learning, that is, in the data hungry regime, the model performance can be significantly improved by transfer learning.

A related situation arises when an auxiliary process is introduced to aid training but modelling its dynamics at generation time is unnecessary or difficult, as in Billera et al. [2025b] and Kim et al. [2025]. In each of these works, the projection result and its associated loss are derived on a case-by-case basis, and all theorems are restricted to marginalization over a discrete component of the extended state space. We introduce a general framework that removes these restrictions: given a time-inhomogeneous Feller process (Yt)0 t 1 on an arbitrary state space Y and a map Φ: Y X, one may learn a linear parametrisation of the generator of a Feller process on X whose one-time marginals coincide with those of (Φ(Yt))0 t 1. For Y = X Z and Φthe projection onto the first coordinate, this subsumes these prior works as special cases, allowing for a general class of latent processes (Zt)0 t 1 in a nearly arbitrary state space Z, using the formalism of generator matching to allow for continuous, discrete, or manifold-valued processes. In particular, the learnt process at t = 1 samples from the distribution of Φ(Y1), which is the desired data distribution. We give sufficient conditions for a loss function to be valid in this general setting, recovering the results of the works cited above as corollaries. This result has broad applicability, enabling the construction of a wide array of new flow matching schemes by allowing for a more general class of latent spaces. As a concrete new application, we outline a non-projection Φ: Y X with manifold-valued latents for protein structure generation that separates chain-level rigid-body motion from internal flexibility ( 4), where the particular chain-level versus residue-level or internal state is latent, and the model only sees the world state, which we plan to implement in future work. 2 EARLIERWORK Several recent generative models train with the aid of a latent stochastic process that is marginalised out at generation time.

Smooth functions on graphs have wide applications in manifold and semi-supervised learning. In this paper, we study a bandit problem where the payoffs of arms are smooth on a graph. This framework is suitable for solving online learning problems that involve graphs, such as content-based recommendation. In this problem, each recommended item is a node and its expected rating is similar to its neighbors. The goal is to recommend items that have high expected ratings. We aim for the algorithms where the cumulative regret would not scale poorly with the number of nodes. In particular, we introduce the notion of an effective dimension, which is small in real-world graphs, and propose two algorithms for solving our problem that scale linearly in this dimension. Our experiments on real-world content recommendation problem show that a good estimator of user preferences for thousands of items can be learned from just tens nodes evaluations.

Modern matrix completion problems often involve heterogeneous data whose rows simultaneously belong to many meta-categories, such as demographic and age groups in recommendation systems, or region and recording session labels in neural electrophysiological experiments. Standard low-rank estimators impose a single global latent geometry, which can recover average structure but may smooth away subgroup-specific variation, especially when observations are unevenly distributed across groups. We introduce Group-Aware Matrix Estimation (GAME), a convex estimator for overlapping subgroup-wise low-rank matrix estimation. GAME regularizes category-specific submatrices through overlapping nuclear-norm penalties, allowing related groups to borrow information while preserving local latent structure in a shared coordinate system. We provide finite-sample guarantees for both reconstruction error and subgroup-specific subspace recovery, showing how performance depends on sampling density, subgroup rank, and overlap structure. Experiments on synthetic, recommendation, ecological, and neuroscience datasets show that GAME is most beneficial in structured missingness regimes, where subgroup-aware regularization improves both reconstruction accuracy and latent subspace fidelity. Across these benchmarks, GAME is competitive or best among global low-rank, side-information, and modern imputation baselines, with the largest gains when subgroups exhibit distinct low-rank structure.

Scalarization is widely used in multi-objective optimization owing to its simplicity and scalability. In many applications, the goal is to generate solutions that represent diverse user preferences, ideally with uniform coverage of the Pareto front (PF). However, uniformly sampling scalarization weights usually induces non-uniform coverage of the PF. We explain this mismatch through a geometric analysis of the scalarization path. As the scalarization weight varies, the corresponding solutions trace the PF with a generally non-uniform traversal speed. This speed induces an arc-length cumulative distribution function (CDF); inverting this CDF map yields a principled rule for selecting weights that produce uniform PF coverage. Building on this insight, we propose SURF (Sampling Uniformly along the PaReto Front). For structured problems, including bi-objective bandits, we derive closed-form expressions for this CDF map and the resulting PF-aware weight sampling rule. For general problems, SURF alternates between CDF reconstruction and weight sampling. Theoretically, we show that under provable conditions, SURF converges linearly to an unavoidable finite-sampling floor. Empirically, experiments on bandits, multi-objective-gymnasium, and multi-objective LLM alignment demonstrate that SURF efficiently achieves more uniform PF coverage than baselines.