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Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural autoregressive models are often treated as analogues of regression coefficients, leading to misleading claims of statistical significance. In this paper, we argue that causal relevance in nonlinear time-series models should be evaluated through forecast necessity rather than coefficient magnitude, and we present a practical evaluation procedure for doing so. We present an interpretable evaluation framework based on systematic edge ablation and forecast comparison, which tests whether a candidate causal relationship is required for accurate prediction. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a case study model, we apply this framework to a real-world case study of democratic development, modeled as a multivariate time series of panel data - democracy indicators across 139 countries. We show that relationships with similar causal scores can differ dramatically in their predictive necessity due to redundancy, temporal persistence, and regime-specific effects. Our results demonstrate how forecast-necessity testing supports more reliable causal reasoning in applied AI systems and provides practical guidance for interpreting nonlinear time-series models in high-stakes domains.

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses generally start by posing a structural equation: Y = hstructural(X)+ϵ, (1) where hstructural represents the causal effect of X on Y, and X and ϵ may be endogenous (E[ϵ | X] = 0). Then given an exogenous instrument Z satisfying the exclusion restriction, the common statistical solution given joint observations of W = (X,Y,Z) P is to conduct inference on some continuous linear functional h 7 EP[m(W;h)] of a solution h H to the linear equation implied by exclusion: TPh = rP, (2) where TP: H G maps h 7 argming GEP(h(X) g(Z))2, rP = argminr GEP(Y r(Z))2, and H, G are closed linear subspaces of square-integrable functions of X and of Z, respectively. For example, if these are all square-integrable functions, then (TPh)(Z) = EP[h(X) | Z] is the conditional expectation.

Deep neural networks exhibit periodic loss spikes during unregularized long-term training, a phenomenon known as the "Slingshot Mechanism." Existing work usually attributes this to intrinsic optimization dynamics, but its triggering mechanism remains unclear. This paper proves that this phenomenon is a result of floating-point arithmetic precision limits. As training enters a high-confidence stage, the difference between the correct-class logit and the other logits may exceed the absorption-error threshold. Then during backpropagation, the gradient of the correct class is rounded exactly to zero, while the gradients of the incorrect classes remain nonzero. This breaks the zero-sum constraint of gradients across classes and introduces a systematic drift in the parameter update of the classifier layer. We prove that this drift forms a positive feedback loop with the feature, causing the global classifier mean and the global feature mean to grow exponentially. We call this mechanism Numerical Feature Inflation (NFI). This mechanism explains the rapid norm growth before a Slingshot spike, the subsequent reappearance of gradients, and the resulting loss spike. We further show that NFI is not equivalent to an observed loss spike: in more practical tasks, partial absorption may not produce visible spikes, but it can still break the zero-sum constraint and drive rapid growth of parameter norms. Our results reinterpret Slingshot as a numerical dynamic of finite-precision training, and provide a testable explanation for abnormal parameter growth and logit divergence in late-stage training.

A striking geometric disparity has long persisted in the practice of deep learning. While modern neural network architectures naturally exhibit rich symmetry and equivariance properties, popular optimizers such as Adam and its variants operate inherently coordinate-wise, rendering them unable to respect the equivariance structures of the parameter space. We address this disparity by introducing a symmetry-compatible principle for optimizer design: the gradient update rule should be equivariant under the symmetry group acting on the corresponding weight block. Following this principle, we first provide a unified perspective on bi-orthogonally equivariant updates for general matrix layers, as employed by stochastic spectral descent, Muon, Scion, and polar gradient methods. More importantly, by moving from orthogonal groups to permutation and shared-shift symmetries, we derive symmetry-compatible optimizers for parameter blocks whose symmetries differ from those of general matrix layers: embedding and LM head matrices, SwiGLU MLP projections, and MoE router matrices. These constructions include one-sided spectral, row-norm, hybrid row-norm/spectral, row-aware, column-aware, centered row-norm, and left-spectral updates. They yield an end-to-end layerwise optimizer stack in which each major matrix-valued parameter class is assigned an update whose equivariance matches its symmetry group. We corroborate this principle through pre-training experiments on dense and sparse MoE language models, including Qwen3-0.6B-style, Gemma 3 1B-style, OLMoE-1B-7B-style, and downsized gpt-oss architectures. Across these experiments, symmetry-compatible update rules consistently improve final validation loss, reduce load imbalance in sparse MoE models, and in several cases improve training stability over the corresponding AdamW updates.

Deep learning has shown remarkable effectiveness in high-dimensional approximation problems, particularly in scientific computing, inverse problems, and operator learning (Han et al., 2018; Adcock et al., 2022; Beck et al., 2023). In many such settings, the ReLUs activation σs(t) = max{0,t}s (s N0) is especially relevant because it yields piecewisepolynomial representations that are well suited to smooth targets and derivative-sensitive tasks (Yang and Zhou, 2025; He et al., 2024).

Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) is a powerful technique for solving large-scale Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), particularly those with decomposable structures, such as vehicle routing or unit commitment problems. By relaxing the coupling constraints, LR enables parallel subproblem solving and often yields tighter dual bounds than standard linear programming relaxations, which is crucial for efficient branch-and-bound pruning. While recent empirical work has shown promising results using machine learning to predict these multipliers, a theoretical understanding of such methods remains an open question. In this work, we bridge this gap by analyzing the problem of learning LR through the lens of Data-driven Algorithm Design, i.e., a statistical learning problem over a distribution of problem instances. Our contributions are as follows: first, we derive a generalization bound of $\mathcal{O}(s^{1.5}/\sqrt{N})$ for the learned multipliers, where $s$ is the number of coupling constraints and $N$ is the sample size. Second, we provide a minimax lower-bound of $Ω(s/\sqrt{N})$, proving that a linear dependency is unavoidable. Third, we constructively close this theoretical gap by proving that Stochastic Gradient Ascent (SGA) with averaging achieves the minimax optimal rate $Θ(s/\sqrt{N})$. Finally, we extend our framework to the learning-to-warm-start setting, proving that it achieves a fast, minimax-optimal rate of $Θ(s/N)$ and establishing a theoretical advantage over direct multiplier prediction.

Quadratic regularization has emerged as a potential alternative to the popular entropic regularization in computational optimal transport, offering the theoretical advantage of producing sparse couplings through its hinge density structure. Despite recent progress in one-dimensional settings and general upper bounds, fundamental questions about the localization rate of QOT optimizers around the Monge coupling have remained open. In this work, we establish a general lower bound showing that the support of the QOT optimizer cannot concentrate around the Monge graph faster than order $\varepsilon^{\frac{1}{d+2}}$ in the directed Hausdorff distance, matching the conjectured optimal exponent under standard regularity assumptions in \citet{wiesel2025sparsity}. We also show that the QOT value gap controls the mean-squared deviation $\mathbb E_{π_\varepsilon}\|y-T(x)\|^2$ by the scale of $\varepsilon^{\frac{2}{d+2}}$. As a corollary, in the affine Brenier regime, which includes Gaussian-to-Gaussian transport, we derive a sharp pointwise tube bound of order $\varepsilon^{\frac{1}{d+2}}$ by reducing the problem to self-transport and applying recent self-transport sparsity results. Finally, we validate our theoretical bound with a synthetic experiment in high-dimensional settings.

Selecting a finite dictionary of observables whose span is Koopman-invariant is a central challenge in data-driven Koopman operator approximation. We address this problem by exploiting zero-block structure in Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) matrices. We show that any sub-dictionary whose span is Koopman-invariant induces an exact zero block in the EDMD matrix, even for finite data. We then show that such blocks can be detected by applying PageRank to a row-normalized EDMD matrix constructed from a large initial dictionary. The theory extends to approximately invariant subspaces and yields stronger guarantees for personalized PageRank (PPR) when the seed observables lie inside the target block and reach all observables in that block. Combining EDMD concentration bounds with PageRank perturbation theory gives end-to-end detection guarantees with $O(1/\sqrt{M})$ finite-sample scaling and explicit constants. More generally, without assuming an invariant subspace exists, high PPR mass on a sub-dictionary controls discounted multi-step leakage from the seed observables. Numerical experiments on the Duffing oscillator, Van der Pol oscillator, Lorenz system, and a three-well Ramachandran potential suggest that the method identifies compact, interpretable dictionaries with accurate predictions.

We study the problem of multiclass PAC learning with bandit feedback in the realizable setting. In this framework, there is an unknown data distribution over an instance space $\mathcal{X}$ and a label space $\mathcal{Y}$, as in classical multiclass PAC learning, but the learner does not observe the labels of the i.i.d. training examples. Instead, in each round, it receives an unlabeled instance, predicts its label, and receives bandit feedback indicating only whether the prediction is correct. Despite this restriction, the goal remains the same as in classical PAC learning. We provide a general characterization of the optimal sample complexity of this problem, sharp for every concept class up to logarithmic factors. Our characterization is based on a new combinatorial dimension, termed the bandit $\mathrm{DS}$ dimension, defined via generalized combinatorial structures we call pseudo-boxes. These extend the pseudo-cubes underlying the $\mathrm{DS}$ dimension by allowing a different number of neighbors in each coordinate. In contrast to the $\mathrm{DS}$ dimension, which governs the full-information setting by counting the number of coordinates in the pseudo-cube, the bandit $\mathrm{DS}$ dimension aggregates the number of neighbors across coordinates, leading to a characterization in which the sample complexity scales with the total number of neighbors. We also propose a general learning algorithm achieving the upper bound, based on an algorithmic principle called ListCascade, which connects bandit learning to list learning and may be of independent interest.