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'Highly likely' Iran downed Ukrainian jetliner: U.S. officials

The Japan Times

WASHINGTON – U.S. officials said Thursday it was "highly likely" that an Iranian anti-aircraft missile downed a Ukrainian jetliner late Tuesday, killing all 176 people on board. They suggested it could well have been a mistake. The crash came just a few hours after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops amid a confrontation with Washington over the U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general last week. Two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, said they had no certain knowledge of Iranian intent. But they said the airliner could have been mistaken for a threat.


Iran's Long Night Is Capped by an Earthquake

NYT > Middle East

It had already been an eventful day in Iran: The country had just launched missiles at United States forces based in Iraq and an airliner carrying at least 176 people crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday, killing everyone on board. Then just before dawn, a 4.5-magnitude earthquake struck southern Iran at a depth of about six miles, the United States Geological Survey reported, in the same region as the troubled Bushehr nuclear power plant. It struck just as Iranian leaders were trumpeting their strike on two Iraqi bases housing United States forces, in retaliation for last week's American drone strike that killed Maj. No casualties were immediately reported, but rescue teams were working at the site, Jahangir Dehqani, managing director of the Bushehr crisis management agency, told the state-run IRNA news agency. The quake was reported about 30 miles from the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear plant.


Trump pulls back from war with Iran

The Japan Times

In a televised address to the nation from the White House, Trump emphasized there were "no Americans harmed" in the ballistic missile salvo aimed at two bases on Wednesday. While he promised to immediately impose "punishing" new economic sanctions on Tehran, Trump welcomed signs the Islamic republic "appears to be standing down" in the tit-for-tat confrontation. The comments cooled what threatened to become an uncontrolled boiling over of tensions after Trump ordered the killing last Friday of a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani. The president, facing both an impeachment trial in Congress and a tough re-election in November, defended his targeting of a man seen by many as Iran's second-most-influential official. Soleimani, a national hero at home, was "the world's top terrorist" and "should have been terminated long ago," Trump said.


De-escalation with Iran a shared goal of feuding U.S. lawmakers

The Japan Times

WASHINGTON – U.S. lawmakers across the political spectrum called for de-escalation of tensions with Iran Wednesday following back-and-forth airstrikes, but clear divisions remained over President Donald Trump's military strategy with Tehran. Republicans praised the commander in chief for signaling he had no immediate plans to respond militarily hours after Iran's missile strikes on Iraqi bases housing American troops. Iran's riposte followed the death of a top-ranked Iranian commander from a U.S. drone attack. Many Democrats seethed over Trump's unilateral order to kill the Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani, without congressional consent. But they took heart in both sides appearing to choose de-escalation rather than a war posture.


Airlines avoid Iran and Iraq airspace

The Japan Times

PARIS – Several international airlines said Wednesday they would avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace after Tehran fired ballistic missiles at bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq. Lufthansa and its Austrian Airlines unit nonetheless decided to maintain flights to the Iranian capital, Tehran, this week, a statement said. Iran launched more than 20 missiles at bases housing U.S. troops in the early hours, officials in Washington and Tehran said. Iran's supreme leader called the attacks a "slap in the face" after a U.S. drone strike killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad international airport last week. In Germany, Lufthansa said it had halted overflights of Iran and Iraq until further notice.


Libya Rebels Capture Key Coastal City in Threat to U.N.-Backed Government

NYT > Middle East

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has become the Tripoli government's last major patron, providing armed drones, armored vehicles and, in the past week, Turkish troops. Turkish officials say their troops will act mostly in an advisory role and avoid front-line combat. But there are indications, from American officials and from videos posted on the internet, that Ankara has deployed Syrian irregulars to Libya, drawn from units that fought the Kurds in northeastern Syria last year. The increasingly prominent foreign role drew an angry rebuke from the United Nations envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salamé, who told reporters on Monday that "probably thousands" of foreign mercenaries had arrived in Libya to participate in the fight. The battle has displaced 300,000 people and caused over 2,200 deaths.


Outgunned Iran takes on U.S. with 'asymmetric' strategy of missiles, drones and militia allies

The Japan Times

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – Iran's launching of more than a dozen missiles at American-led forces in Iraq on Wednesday came after years of preparing for a confrontation with its superpower foe, whose forces are vastly larger and more advanced. The Persian Gulf country has more than 500,000 active-duty personnel, including 125,000 members of its elite Revolutionary Guard, according to a report last year by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But international sanctions and restrictions on arms imports have made it hard for Iran to develop or buy more sophisticated weaponry. To compensate for the imbalance, Iran has developed "asymmetric" responses -- ballistic missiles, deadly drones and a web of militia allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, among other things -- with the aim of being able to inflict pain while avoiding the traditional battlefield. "From a conventional military perspective, they would get absolutely hammered," said a British former military commander who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.


Michael Pregent: Iran fears US war – May have deliberately missed hitting Americans in missile attacks

FOX News

Iranians fired 15 ballistic missiles at U.S.-based forces in Iraq; Benjamin Hall reports from Amman, Jordan. Iranian missile attacks on two joint U.S.-Iraqi military bases Wednesday morning didn't kill or injure any Americans, according to initial reports – and that appears to have been a deliberate move by Iran to avoid a retaliatory strike by U.S. forces. Iran had to strike back at the U.S. in some way after an American drone attack ordered by President Trump killed Iranian terrorist Gen. Qassem Soleimani and other terrorists Friday morning in Iraq. But the leaders of the Iranian regime are smart enough to know that if they had killed Americans in their retaliatory attack, Trump would have responded with deadly force. This could have sparked a rapidly escalating series of strikes and counterstrikes as each side hit back at the other and could have eventually led to a costly war that would have hurt Iran far more than the U.S. Iran called on the U.S. not to retaliate after the Islamic Republic launched as many as 15 ballistic missiles at the bases where U.S. troops were stationed – a clear indication that Iran wants to avoid further military conflict with the far more powerful American forces.


The risk of an Iran cyberattack is up after missile strike on Iraqi military bases with US troops

USATODAY - Tech Top Stories

Americans should be on heightened alert for cyberattacks after Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at two military bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed late Tuesday, security researchers say. Iran could target private businesses and government infrastructure to avenge last week's killing of its top military commander as tensions between Tehran and Washington reach one of their highest points since the 1979 Iranian revolution. "I am not predicting it will happen, but if it happens, I won't be surprised," said Steven Bellovin, a computer science professor at Columbia University School of Engineering. A cyber conflict has been silently raging for years. In retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad last week, Iran could target the power and electricity you use, the smart devices you carry or your bank account, security experts say.


Abe to cancel weekend trip to Middle East, report says, as tensions soar after Iran attacks

The Japan Times

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will cancel plans to visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman this weekend, TV Asahi reported on Wednesday, after Iran struck back at the United States for the killing of a top Iranian general. Kyodo News reported separately that Abe convened a National Security Council (NSC) meeting, likely to discuss Iran's attack on U.S. forces based in Iraq. Iranian state TV said it was in revenge for the U.S. killing of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, whose death last week in an American drone strike near Baghdad prompted angry calls to avenge his slaying.