Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) models are extensively used in signal processing and machine learning for promoting sparsity through hierarchical priors. The hyperparameters in SBL models are crucial for the model's performance, but they are often difficult to estimate due to the non-convexity and the high-dimensionality of the associated objective function. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for hyperparameter estimation in SBL models, encompassing well-known algorithms such as the expectation-maximization (EM), MacKay, and convex bounding (CB) algorithms. These algorithms are cohesively interpreted within an alternating minimization and linearization (AML) paradigm, distinguished by their unique linearized surrogate functions. Additionally, a novel algorithm within the AML framework is introduced, showing enhanced efficiency, especially under low signal noise ratios. This is further improved by a new alternating minimization and quadratic approximation (AMQ) paradigm, which includes a proximal regularization term. The paper substantiates these advancements with thorough convergence analysis and numerical experiments, demonstrating the algorithm's effectiveness in various noise conditions and signal-to-noise ratios.

We provide optimal lower bounds for two well-known parameter estimation (also known as statistical estimation) tasks in high dimensions with approximate differential privacy. First, we prove that for any $\alpha \le O(1)$, estimating the covariance of a Gaussian up to spectral error $\alpha$ requires $\tilde{\Omega}\left(\frac{d^{3/2}}{\alpha \varepsilon} + \frac{d}{\alpha^2}\right)$ samples, which is tight up to logarithmic factors. This result improves over previous work which established this for $\alpha \le O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{d}}\right)$, and is also simpler than previous work. Next, we prove that estimating the mean of a heavy-tailed distribution with bounded $k$th moments requires $\tilde{\Omega}\left(\frac{d}{\alpha^{k/(k-1)} \varepsilon} + \frac{d}{\alpha^2}\right)$ samples. Previous work for this problem was only able to establish this lower bound against pure differential privacy, or in the special case of $k = 2$. Our techniques follow the method of fingerprinting and are generally quite simple. Our lower bound for heavy-tailed estimation is based on a black-box reduction from privately estimating identity-covariance Gaussians. Our lower bound for covariance estimation utilizes a Bayesian approach to show that, under an Inverse Wishart prior distribution for the covariance matrix, no private estimator can be accurate even in expectation, without sufficiently many samples.

We present Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE), a novel Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) method based on conditional quantile regression. NQE autoregressively learns individual one dimensional quantiles for each posterior dimension, conditioned on the data and previous posterior dimensions. Posterior samples are obtained by interpolating the predicted quantiles using monotonic cubic Hermite spline, with specific treatment for the tail behavior and multi-modal distributions. We introduce an alternative definition for the Bayesian credible region using the local Cumulative Density Function (CDF), offering substantially faster evaluation than the traditional Highest Posterior Density Region (HPDR). In case of limited simulation budget and/or known model misspecification, a post-processing broadening step can be integrated into NQE to ensure the unbiasedness of the posterior estimation with negligible additional computational cost. We demonstrate that the proposed NQE method achieves state-of-the-art performance on a variety of benchmark problems.

Factor Analysis based on multivariate $t$ distribution ($t$fa) is a useful robust tool for extracting common factors on heavy-tailed or contaminated data. However, $t$fa is only applicable to vector data. When $t$fa is applied to matrix data, it is common to first vectorize the matrix observations. This introduces two challenges for $t$fa: (i) the inherent matrix structure of the data is broken, and (ii) robustness may be lost, as vectorized matrix data typically results in a high data dimension, which could easily lead to the breakdown of $t$fa. To address these issues, starting from the intrinsic matrix structure of matrix data, a novel robust factor analysis model, namely bilinear factor analysis built on the matrix-variate $t$ distribution ($t$bfa), is proposed in this paper. The novelty is that it is capable to simultaneously extract common factors for both row and column variables of interest on heavy-tailed or contaminated matrix data. Two efficient algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of $t$bfa are developed. Closed-form expression for the Fisher information matrix to calculate the accuracy of parameter estimates are derived. Empirical studies are conducted to understand the proposed $t$bfa model and compare with related competitors. The results demonstrate the superiority and practicality of $t$bfa. Importantly, $t$bfa exhibits a significantly higher breakdown point than $t$fa, making it more suitable for matrix data.

We introduce a novel sampler called the energy based diffusion generator for generating samples from arbitrary target distributions. The sampling model employs a structure similar to a variational autoencoder, utilizing a decoder to transform latent variables from a simple distribution into random variables approximating the target distribution, and we design an encoder based on the diffusion model. Leveraging the powerful modeling capacity of the diffusion model for complex distributions, we can obtain an accurate variational estimate of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the distributions of the generated samples and the target. Moreover, we propose a decoder based on generalized Hamiltonian dynamics to further enhance sampling performance. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method across various complex distribution functions, showcasing its superiority compared to existing methods.

Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a "mark") -- but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as "the probability of item $A$ being observed before item $B$," conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a foundational model in machine learning and causal inference. Their graphical structure can handle high-dimensional problems, divide them into a sparse collection of smaller ones, underlies Judea Pearl's causality, and determines their explainability and interpretability. Despite their popularity, there are almost no resources in the literature on how to compute Shannon's entropy and the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for BNs under their most common distributional assumptions. In this paper, we provide computationally efficient algorithms for both by leveraging BNs' graphical structure, and we illustrate them with a complete set of numerical examples. In the process, we show it is possible to reduce the computational complexity of KL from cubic to quadratic for Gaussian BNs.

Gradient-enhanced Kriging (GE-Kriging) is a well-established surrogate modelling technique for approximating expensive computational models. However, it tends to get impractical for high-dimensional problems due to the size of the inherent correlation matrix and the associated high-dimensional hyper-parameter tuning problem. To address these issues, a new method, called sliced GE-Kriging (SGE-Kriging), is developed in this paper for reducing both the size of the correlation matrix and the number of hyper-parameters. We first split the training sample set into multiple slices, and invoke Bayes' theorem to approximate the full likelihood function via a sliced likelihood function, in which multiple small correlation matrices are utilized to describe the correlation of the sample set rather than one large one. Then, we replace the original high-dimensional hyper-parameter tuning problem with a low-dimensional counterpart by learning the relationship between the hyper-parameters and the derivative-based global sensitivity indices. The performance of SGE-Kriging is finally validated by means of numerical experiments with several benchmarks and a high-dimensional aerodynamic modeling problem. The results show that the SGE-Kriging model features an accuracy and robustness that is comparable to the standard one but comes at much less training costs. The benefits are most evident for high-dimensional problems with tens of variables.

To further reduce the computational effort in evaluating the approximate posterior, stochastic methods such as We introduce ensembles of stochastic neural networks to Monte Carlo dropout [47] and DropConnect [51] inference approximate the Bayesian posterior, combining stochastic have also been used extensively [13, 14, 40]. They benefit methods such as dropout with deep ensembles. The stochastic from computationally cheaper inference by virtue of sampling ensembles are formulated as families of distributions and stochastically from a single model. Formulated as a trained to approximate the Bayesian posterior with variational variational approximation to the posterior, dropout samples inference. We implement stochastic ensembles based from a family of parameter distributions where parameters on Monte Carlo dropout, DropConnect and a novel nonparametric can be randomly set to zero. Although this particular family version of dropout and evaluate them on a toy of distributions might seem unnatural [11], it turns out problem and CIFAR image classification. For both tasks, that the stochastic property can help to find more robust regions we test the quality of the posteriors directly against Hamiltonian of the parameter space, a fact well-known from a long Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that history of using dropout as a regularization method.

We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a fixed sample size. Our approach combines four tools in the following order: (a) nonnegative supermartingales or reverse submartingales, (b) the method of mixtures, (c) the Donsker-Varadhan formula (or other convex duality principles), and (d) Ville's inequality. Our main result is a PAC-Bayes theorem which holds for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes. We show how this result implies time-uniform versions of well-known classical PAC-Bayes bounds, such as those of Seeger, McAllester, Maurer, and Catoni, in addition to many recent bounds. We also present several novel bounds. Our framework also enables us to relax traditional assumptions; in particular, we consider nonstationary loss functions and non-i.i.d. data. In sum, we unify the derivation of past bounds and ease the search for future bounds: one may simply check if our supermartingale or submartingale conditions are met and, if so, be guaranteed a (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes bound.