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 Uncertainty


Neural Population Decoding and Imbalanced Multi-Omic Datasets For Cancer Subtype Diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract: Recent strides in the field of neural computation has seen the adoption of Winner-Take-All (WTA) circuits to facilitate the unification of hierarchical Bayesian inference and spiking neural networks as a neurobiologically plausible model of information processing. However, researchers have not yet reached consensus about how best to translate the stochastic responses from these networks into discrete decisions, a process known as population decoding. Despite being an often underexamined part of SNNs, in this work we show that population decoding has a significanct impact on the classification performance of WTA networks. For this purpose, we apply a WTA network to the problem of cancer subtype diagnosis from multi-omic data, using datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). In doing so we utilise a novel implementation of gene similarity networks, a feature encoding technique based on Kohoen's self-organising map algorithm. We further show that the impact of selecting certain population decoding methods is amplified when facing imbalanced datasets. Multi-omics data integration in cancer diagnosis Alternatively, some research focuses on the timedependent refers to the integration of information from various relationship of spiking neurons, for biological "omics" e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, instance by weighting neuron responses more highly metabolomics, to provide a more comprehensive based on how quickly they fire (Grün & Rotter, 2010; understanding of the molecular landscape of cancer. In order to extract information from SNNs, we neurobiologically inspired method of information examine the spikes generated by a population of processing which aim to solve tasks using plausible neurons in response to a stimulus.


Distributed client selection with multi-objective in federated learning assisted Internet of Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning is an emerging distributed machine learning framework in the Internet of Vehicles (IoV). In IoV, millions of vehicles are willing to train the model to share their knowledge. Maintaining an active state means the participants must update their state to the FL server in a fixed interval and participate to next round. However, the cost by maintaining an active state is very large when there are a huge number of participating vehicles. In this paper, we proposed a distributed client selection scheme to reduce the cost of maintaining the active state for all participants. The clients with the highest evaluation are elected among the neighbours. In the evaluator, four variables are considered including sample quantity, throughput available, computational capability and the quality of the local dataset. We adopted fuzzy logic as the evaluator since the closed-form solution over four variables does not exist. Extensive simulation results show our proposal approximates the centralized client selection in terms of accuracy and can significantly reduce the communication overhead.


Do Bayesian Neural Networks Improve Weapon System Predictive Maintenance?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This approach lacks the extra information on individual systems with interval-censored data and time-varying weapon system characteristics. A recent method introduced the covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, Weibull-Cox Bayesian Neural Network tested on several LaplaceNN, on synthetic and real datasets with standard weapon systems, albeit requiring a held-out validation set [7]. classification metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic Moreover, while understanding the population reliability trends (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) Precision-Recall (PR) AUC, via a Weibull distribution is informative, this formulation does and reliability curve visualizations.


On the Model-Misspecification in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The success of reinforcement learning (RL) crucially depends on effective function approximation when dealing with complex ground-truth models. Existing sample-efficient RL algorithms primarily employ three approaches to function approximation: policy-based, value-based, and model-based methods. However, in the face of model misspecification (a disparity between the ground-truth and optimal function approximators), it is shown that policy-based approaches can be robust even when the policy function approximation is under a large locally-bounded misspecification error, with which the function class may exhibit a $\Omega(1)$ approximation error in specific states and actions, but remains small on average within a policy-induced state distribution. Yet it remains an open question whether similar robustness can be achieved with value-based and model-based approaches, especially with general function approximation. To bridge this gap, in this paper we present a unified theoretical framework for addressing model misspecification in RL. We demonstrate that, through meticulous algorithm design and sophisticated analysis, value-based and model-based methods employing general function approximation can achieve robustness under local misspecification error bounds. In particular, they can attain a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}\left(\text{poly}(d H)(\sqrt{K} + K\zeta) \right)$, where $d$ represents the complexity of the function class, $H$ is the episode length, $K$ is the total number of episodes, and $\zeta$ denotes the local bound for misspecification error. Furthermore, we propose an algorithmic framework that can achieve the same order of regret bound without prior knowledge of $\zeta$, thereby enhancing its practical applicability.


Verifying Relational Explanations: A Probabilistic Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explanations on relational data are hard to verify since the explanation structures are more complex (e.g. graphs). To verify interpretable explanations (e.g. explanations of predictions made in images, text, etc.), typically human subjects are used since it does not necessarily require a lot of expertise. However, to verify the quality of a relational explanation requires expertise and is hard to scale-up. GNNExplainer is arguably one of the most popular explanation methods for Graph Neural Networks. In this paper, we develop an approach where we assess the uncertainty in explanations generated by GNNExplainer. Specifically, we ask the explainer to generate explanations for several counterfactual examples. We generate these examples as symmetric approximations of the relational structure in the original data. From these explanations, we learn a factor graph model to quantify uncertainty in an explanation. Our results on several datasets show that our approach can help verify explanations from GNNExplainer by reliably estimating the uncertainty of a relation specified in the explanation.


RL$^3$: Boosting Meta Reinforcement Learning via RL inside RL$^2$

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meta reinforcement learning (meta-RL) methods such as RL$^2$ have emerged as promising approaches for learning data-efficient RL algorithms tailored to a given task distribution. However, these RL algorithms struggle with long-horizon tasks and out-of-distribution tasks since they rely on recurrent neural networks to process the sequence of experiences instead of summarizing them into general RL components such as value functions. Moreover, even transformers have a practical limit to the length of histories they can efficiently reason about before training and inference costs become prohibitive. In contrast, traditional RL algorithms are data-inefficient since they do not leverage domain knowledge, but they do converge to an optimal policy as more data becomes available. In this paper, we propose RL$^3$, a principled hybrid approach that combines traditional RL and meta-RL by incorporating task-specific action-values learned through traditional RL as an input to the meta-RL neural network. We show that RL$^3$ earns greater cumulative reward on long-horizon and out-of-distribution tasks compared to RL$^2$, while maintaining the efficiency of the latter in the short term. Experiments are conducted on both custom and benchmark discrete domains from the meta-RL literature that exhibit a range of short-term, long-term, and complex dependencies.


Bayesian Heuristics for Robust Spatial Perception

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatial perception is a key task in several machine intelligence applications such as robotics and computer vision. In general, it involves the nonlinear estimation of hidden variables that represent the system's state. However, in the presence of measurement outliers, the standard nonlinear least squared formulation results in poor estimates. Several methods have been considered in the literature to improve the reliability of the estimation process. Most methods are based on heuristics since guaranteed global robust estimation is not generally practical due to high computational costs. Recently general purpose robust estimation heuristics have been proposed that leverage existing non-minimal solvers available for the outlier-free formulations without the need for an initial guess. In this work, we propose three Bayesian heuristics that have similar structures. We evaluate these heuristics in practical scenarios to demonstrate their merits in different applications including 3D point cloud registration, mesh registration and pose graph optimization. The general computational advantages our proposals offer make them attractive candidates for spatial perception tasks.


Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large-scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub-surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have seen numerous successes over several engineering applications, estimations on quantities of interest (QoI) - such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system - suffer from a two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameter values to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameter choices will lead to some amount of uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since DFN simulators rely on stochastic processes to place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e. different seeds) of the same random process leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. We make several design choices to handle an observed heteroskedasticity in DFN simulators, where the aleatoric uncertainty changes for different inputs, since the quality makes several standard statistical methods inadmissible. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables affect uncertainty the most for DFN simulators, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.


Training Diffusion Models with Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models are a class of flexible generative models trained with an approximation to the log-likelihood objective. However, most use cases of diffusion models are not concerned with likelihoods, but instead with downstream objectives such as human-perceived image quality or drug effectiveness. In this paper, we investigate reinforcement learning methods for directly optimizing diffusion models for such objectives. We describe how posing denoising as a multi-step decisionmaking problem enables a class of policy gradient algorithms, which we refer to as denoising diffusion policy optimization (DDPO), that are more effective than alternative reward-weighted likelihood approaches. Empirically, DDPO can adapt text-to-image diffusion models to objectives that are difficult to express via prompting, such as image compressibility, and those derived from human feedback, such as aesthetic quality. Finally, we show that DDPO can improve prompt-image alignment using feedback from a vision-language model without the need for additional data collection or human annotation. The project's website can be found at Diffusion probabilistic models (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2015) have recently emerged as the de facto standard for generative modeling in continuous domains. The key idea behind diffusion models is to iteratively transform a simple prior distribution into a target distribution by applying a sequential denoising process. This procedure is conventionally motivated as a maximum likelihood estimation problem, with the objective derived as a variational lower bound on the log-likelihood of the training data. However, most use cases of diffusion models are not directly concerned with likelihoods, but instead with downstream objective such as human-perceived image quality or drug effectiveness.


Migrating Birds Optimization-Based Feature Selection for Text Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research introduces a novel approach, MBO-NB, that leverages Migrating Birds Optimization (MBO) coupled with Naive Bayes as an internal classifier to address feature selection challenges in text classification having large number of features. Focusing on computational efficiency, we preprocess raw data using the Information Gain algorithm, strategically reducing the feature count from an average of 62221 to 2089. Our experiments demonstrate MBO-NB's superior effectiveness in feature reduction compared to other existing techniques, emphasizing an increased classification accuracy. The successful integration of Naive Bayes within MBO presents a well-rounded solution. In individual comparisons with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), MBO-NB consistently outperforms by an average of 6.9% across four setups. This research offers valuable insights into enhancing feature selection methods, providing a scalable and effective solution for text classification