Uncertainty
Sampling in Unit Time with Kernel Fisher-Rao Flow
Maurais, Aimee, Marzouk, Youssef
We introduce a new mean-field ODE and corresponding interacting particle systems for sampling from an unnormalized target density or Bayesian posterior. The interacting particle systems are gradient-free, available in closed form, and only require the ability to sample from the reference density and compute the (unnormalized) target-to-reference density ratio. The mean-field ODE is obtained by solving a Poisson equation for a velocity field that transports samples along the geometric mixture of the two densities, which is the path of a particular Fisher-Rao gradient flow. We employ a reproducing kernel Hilbert space ansatz for the velocity field, which makes the Poisson equation tractable and enables us to discretize the resulting mean-field ODE over finite samples, as a simple interacting particle system. The mean-field ODE can be additionally be derived from a discrete-time perspective as the limit of successive linearizations of the Monge-Amp\`ere equations within a framework known as sample-driven optimal transport. We demonstrate empirically that our interacting particle systems can produce high-quality samples from distributions with varying characteristics.
Ensemble Kalman Filtering Meets Gaussian Process SSM for Non-Mean-Field and Online Inference
Lin, Zhidi, Sun, Yiyong, Yin, Feng, Thiéry, Alexandre Hoang
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) are a versatile and principled family of nonlinear dynamical system models. However, existing variational learning and inference methods for GPSSMs often necessitate optimizing a substantial number of variational parameters, leading to inadequate performance and efficiency. To overcome this issue, we propose incorporating the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a well-established model-based filtering technique, into the variational inference framework to approximate the posterior distribution of latent states. This utilization of EnKF can effectively exploit the dependencies between latent states and GP dynamics, while eliminating the need for parameterizing the variational distribution, thereby significantly reducing the number of variational parameters. Moreover, we show that our proposed algorithm allows straightforward evaluation of an approximated evidence lower bound (ELBO) in variational inference via simply summating multiple terms with readily available closed-form solutions. Leveraging automatic differentiation tools, we hence can maximize the ELBO and train the GPSSM efficiently. We also extend the proposed algorithm to accommodate an online setting and provide detailed algorithmic analyses and insights. Extensive evaluation on diverse real and synthetic datasets demonstrates the superiority of our EnKF-aided variational inference algorithms in terms of learning and inference performance compared to existing methods.
{\alpha}-HMM: A Graphical Model for RNA Folding
Zhang, Sixiang, Yang, Aaron J., Cai, Liming
The secondary structure of a ribonucleic acid (RNA) is higher order structure over the primary sequence of the molecule. Nucleotides on the sequence physically come close to each other through hydrogen bonds between bases, forming canonical Watson-Crick pairs (A-U and G-C), and the wobble pair (G-U) as the fundamental components of the structure. The secondary structure is the intermediate, to a great extent the scaffold for higher order interactions between nucleotides to generate RNA tertiary, i.e., 3-dimensional, structure [7, 17]. The latter determines important RNA functions in biological processes, not only as a genetic information carrier but also playing catalytic, scaffolding, structural, and regulatory roles [12, 4]. There has been abundant interest in understanding the detailed process and dynamics of how RNA folds into its structure [3]. Computational prediction of RNA secondary structure directly from its primary sequence is a very desirable step toward the prediction of RNA 3D structure. This is evident by the RNA Puzzles, an annual competition to predict RNA 3D structures, in which most of the used methods by participants are proceeded by a phase for secondary structure prediction [24, 22, 23]. These authors contributed equally to this work.
Asynchronous Local Computations in Distributed Bayesian Learning
Bhar, Kinjal, Bai, He, George, Jemin, Busart, Carl
Due to the expanding scope of machine learning (ML) to the fields of sensor networking, cooperative robotics and many other multi-agent systems, distributed deployment of inference algorithms has received a lot of attention. These algorithms involve collaboratively learning unknown parameters from dispersed data collected by multiple agents. There are two competing aspects in such algorithms, namely, intra-agent computation and inter-agent communication. Traditionally, algorithms are designed to perform both synchronously. However, certain circumstances need frugal use of communication channels as they are either unreliable, time-consuming, or resource-expensive. In this paper, we propose gossip-based asynchronous communication to leverage fast computations and reduce communication overhead simultaneously. We analyze the effects of multiple (local) intra-agent computations by the active agents between successive inter-agent communications. For local computations, Bayesian sampling via unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) MCMC is utilized. The communication is assumed to be over a connected graph (e.g., as in decentralized learning), however, the results can be extended to coordinated communication where there is a central server (e.g., federated learning). We theoretically quantify the convergence rates in the process. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm, we present simulations on a toy problem as well as on real world data sets to train ML models to perform classification tasks. We observe faster initial convergence and improved performance accuracy, especially in the low data range. We achieve on average 78% and over 90% classification accuracy respectively on the Gamma Telescope and mHealth data sets from the UCI ML repository.
Neural Population Decoding and Imbalanced Multi-Omic Datasets For Cancer Subtype Diagnosis
Kent, Charles Theodore, Bagheriye, Leila, Kwisthout, Johan
Abstract: Recent strides in the field of neural computation has seen the adoption of Winner-Take-All (WTA) circuits to facilitate the unification of hierarchical Bayesian inference and spiking neural networks as a neurobiologically plausible model of information processing. However, researchers have not yet reached consensus about how best to translate the stochastic responses from these networks into discrete decisions, a process known as population decoding. Despite being an often underexamined part of SNNs, in this work we show that population decoding has a significanct impact on the classification performance of WTA networks. For this purpose, we apply a WTA network to the problem of cancer subtype diagnosis from multi-omic data, using datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). In doing so we utilise a novel implementation of gene similarity networks, a feature encoding technique based on Kohoen's self-organising map algorithm. We further show that the impact of selecting certain population decoding methods is amplified when facing imbalanced datasets. Multi-omics data integration in cancer diagnosis Alternatively, some research focuses on the timedependent refers to the integration of information from various relationship of spiking neurons, for biological "omics" e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, instance by weighting neuron responses more highly metabolomics, to provide a more comprehensive based on how quickly they fire (Grün & Rotter, 2010; understanding of the molecular landscape of cancer. In order to extract information from SNNs, we neurobiologically inspired method of information examine the spikes generated by a population of processing which aim to solve tasks using plausible neurons in response to a stimulus.
Distributed client selection with multi-objective in federated learning assisted Internet of Vehicles
Federated learning is an emerging distributed machine learning framework in the Internet of Vehicles (IoV). In IoV, millions of vehicles are willing to train the model to share their knowledge. Maintaining an active state means the participants must update their state to the FL server in a fixed interval and participate to next round. However, the cost by maintaining an active state is very large when there are a huge number of participating vehicles. In this paper, we proposed a distributed client selection scheme to reduce the cost of maintaining the active state for all participants. The clients with the highest evaluation are elected among the neighbours. In the evaluator, four variables are considered including sample quantity, throughput available, computational capability and the quality of the local dataset. We adopted fuzzy logic as the evaluator since the closed-form solution over four variables does not exist. Extensive simulation results show our proposal approximates the centralized client selection in terms of accuracy and can significantly reduce the communication overhead.
Do Bayesian Neural Networks Improve Weapon System Predictive Maintenance?
This approach lacks the extra information on individual systems with interval-censored data and time-varying weapon system characteristics. A recent method introduced the covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, Weibull-Cox Bayesian Neural Network tested on several LaplaceNN, on synthetic and real datasets with standard weapon systems, albeit requiring a held-out validation set [7]. classification metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic Moreover, while understanding the population reliability trends (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) Precision-Recall (PR) AUC, via a Weibull distribution is informative, this formulation does and reliability curve visualizations.
On the Model-Misspecification in Reinforcement Learning
The success of reinforcement learning (RL) crucially depends on effective function approximation when dealing with complex ground-truth models. Existing sample-efficient RL algorithms primarily employ three approaches to function approximation: policy-based, value-based, and model-based methods. However, in the face of model misspecification (a disparity between the ground-truth and optimal function approximators), it is shown that policy-based approaches can be robust even when the policy function approximation is under a large locally-bounded misspecification error, with which the function class may exhibit a $\Omega(1)$ approximation error in specific states and actions, but remains small on average within a policy-induced state distribution. Yet it remains an open question whether similar robustness can be achieved with value-based and model-based approaches, especially with general function approximation. To bridge this gap, in this paper we present a unified theoretical framework for addressing model misspecification in RL. We demonstrate that, through meticulous algorithm design and sophisticated analysis, value-based and model-based methods employing general function approximation can achieve robustness under local misspecification error bounds. In particular, they can attain a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}\left(\text{poly}(d H)(\sqrt{K} + K\zeta) \right)$, where $d$ represents the complexity of the function class, $H$ is the episode length, $K$ is the total number of episodes, and $\zeta$ denotes the local bound for misspecification error. Furthermore, we propose an algorithmic framework that can achieve the same order of regret bound without prior knowledge of $\zeta$, thereby enhancing its practical applicability.
Verifying Relational Explanations: A Probabilistic Approach
Magar, Abisha Thapa, Shakya, Anup, Sarkhel, Somdeb, Venugopal, Deepak
Explanations on relational data are hard to verify since the explanation structures are more complex (e.g. graphs). To verify interpretable explanations (e.g. explanations of predictions made in images, text, etc.), typically human subjects are used since it does not necessarily require a lot of expertise. However, to verify the quality of a relational explanation requires expertise and is hard to scale-up. GNNExplainer is arguably one of the most popular explanation methods for Graph Neural Networks. In this paper, we develop an approach where we assess the uncertainty in explanations generated by GNNExplainer. Specifically, we ask the explainer to generate explanations for several counterfactual examples. We generate these examples as symmetric approximations of the relational structure in the original data. From these explanations, we learn a factor graph model to quantify uncertainty in an explanation. Our results on several datasets show that our approach can help verify explanations from GNNExplainer by reliably estimating the uncertainty of a relation specified in the explanation.