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 Uncertainty


Learning Interpretable Rules for Scalable Data Representation and Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rule-based models, e.g., decision trees, are widely used in scenarios demanding high model interpretability for their transparent inner structures and good model expressivity. However, rule-based models are hard to optimize, especially on large data sets, due to their discrete parameters and structures. Ensemble methods and fuzzy/soft rules are commonly used to improve performance, but they sacrifice the model interpretability. To obtain both good scalability and interpretability, we propose a new classifier, named Rule-based Representation Learner (RRL), that automatically learns interpretable non-fuzzy rules for data representation and classification. To train the non-differentiable RRL effectively, we project it to a continuous space and propose a novel training method, called Gradient Grafting, that can directly optimize the discrete model using gradient descent. A novel design of logical activation functions is also devised to increase the scalability of RRL and enable it to discretize the continuous features end-to-end. Exhaustive experiments on ten small and four large data sets show that RRL outperforms the competitive interpretable approaches and can be easily adjusted to obtain a trade-off between classification accuracy and model complexity for different scenarios. Our code is available at: https://github.com/12wang3/rrl.


Risk Measures and Upper Probabilities: Coherence and Stratification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning typically presupposes classical probability theory which implies that aggregation is built upon expectation. There are now multiple reasons to motivate looking at richer alternatives to classical probability theory as a mathematical foundation for machine learning. We systematically examine a powerful and rich class of alternative aggregation functionals, known variously as spectral risk measures, Choquet integrals or Lorentz norms. We present a range of characterization results, and demonstrate what makes this spectral family so special. In doing so we arrive at a natural stratification of all coherent risk measures in terms of the upper probabilities that they induce by exploiting results from the theory of rearrangement invariant Banach spaces. We empirically demonstrate how this new approach to uncertainty helps tackling practical machine learning problems.


Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainty in Conjunction Analysis with Dempster-Shafer Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The paper presents an approach to the modelling of epistemic uncertainty in Conjunction Data Messages (CDM) and the classification of conjunction events according to the confidence in the probability of collision. The approach proposed in this paper is based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DSt) of evidence and starts from the assumption that the observed CDMs are drawn from a family of unknown distributions. The Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality is used to construct robust bounds on such a family of unknown distributions starting from a time series of CDMs. A DSt structure is then derived from the probability boxes constructed with DKW inequality. The DSt structure encapsulates the uncertainty in the CDMs at every point along the time series and allows the computation of the belief and plausibility in the realisation of a given probability of collision. The methodology proposed in this paper is tested on a number of real events and compared against existing practices in the European and French Space Agencies. We will show that the classification system proposed in this paper is more conservative than the approach taken by the European Space Agency but provides an added quantification of uncertainty in the probability of collision.


Sliced Wasserstein with Random-Path Projecting Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Slicing distribution selection has been used as an effective technique to improve the performance of parameter estimators based on minimizing sliced Wasserstein distance in applications. Previous works either utilize expensive optimization to select the slicing distribution or use slicing distributions that require expensive sampling methods. In this work, we propose an optimization-free slicing distribution that provides a fast sampling for the Monte Carlo estimation of expectation. In particular, we introduce the random-path projecting direction (RPD) which is constructed by leveraging the normalized difference between two random vectors following the two input measures. From the RPD, we derive the random-path slicing distribution (RPSD) and two variants of sliced Wasserstein, i.e., the Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (RPSW) and the Importance Weighted Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (IWRPSW). We then discuss the topological, statistical, and computational properties of RPSW and IWRPSW. Finally, we showcase the favorable performance of RPSW and IWRPSW in gradient flow and the training of denoising diffusion generative models on images.


Distributed Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is commonly used in the optimization literature due to its fast convergence. In contrast to distributed optimization, distributed sampling allows for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference tasks. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. For our theoretical results, we use convex optimization tools to establish a fundamental inequality on the generated local sample iterates. This inequality enables us to show convergence of the distribution associated with these iterates to the underlying target distribution in Wasserstein distance. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.


Ensemble-Based Annealed Importance Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sampling from a multimodal distribution is a fundamental and challenging problem in computational science and statistics. Among various approaches proposed for this task, one popular method is Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS). In this paper, we propose an ensemble-based version of AIS by combining it with population-based Monte Carlo methods to improve its efficiency. By keeping track of an ensemble instead of a single particle along some continuation path between the starting distribution and the target distribution, we take advantage of the interaction within the ensemble to encourage the exploration of undiscovered modes. Specifically, our main idea is to utilize either the snooker algorithm or the genetic algorithm used in Evolutionary Monte Carlo. We discuss how the proposed algorithm can be implemented and derive a partial differential equation governing the evolution of the ensemble under the continuous time and mean-field limit. We also test the efficiency of the proposed algorithm on various continuous and discrete distributions.


Deep Learning for Gamma-Ray Bursts: A data driven event framework for X/Gamma-Ray analysis in space telescopes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The HERMES (High Energy Rapid Modular Ensemble of Satellites) Pathfinder mission serves as an in-orbit demonstration of a constellation of nanosatellites whose primary scientific purpose is to discover intense high-energy transients, such as gamma-ray bursts, across a broad energy range (few keV to few MeV) with unparalleled temporal precision and exact localisation. By 2024, the first constellation of six nanosatellites is expected to be launched. To fully exploit satellite data and allow faint astronomical events to emerge, a precise estimation of satellite background count rates is required to determine whether the event is statistically valid or not. The dynamics of the background are related to the satellite's orbital information, which varies in the order of minutes, potentially hiding long transient events. This work introduces two main contributions I have brought ahead; first a novel background estimator is presented that could potentially be fitted to any type of X/Gamma-ray satellite space telescope, capable of capturing long-term dynamics and accurate enough to detect faint transients. This estimator is built using a Neural Network and tested on data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope's Gamma Burst Monitor (GBM). As a second objective, it is employed a trigger algorithm, called FOCuS (Functional Online CUSUM), to extract events from the background using the background estimator. The resulting framework, DeepGRB, can identify astronomical events that are both present and absent from the Fermi-GBM catalog. The analysis of the discovered events reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the framework.


Diffusion-based graph generative methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Being the most cutting-edge generative methods, diffusion methods have shown great advances in wide generation tasks. Among them, graph generation attracts significant research attention for its broad application in real life. In our survey, we systematically and comprehensively review on diffusion-based graph generative methods. We first make a review on three mainstream paradigms of diffusion methods, which are denoising diffusion probabilistic models, score-based genrative models, and stochastic differential equations. Then we further categorize and introduce the latest applications of diffusion models on graphs. In the end, we point out some limitations of current studies and future directions of future explorations. The summary of existing methods metioned in this survey is in https://github.com/zhejiangzhuque/Diffusion-based-Graph-Generative-Methods.


Estimation of partially known Gaussian graphical models with score-based structural priors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel algorithm for the support estimation of partially known Gaussian graphical models that incorporates prior information about the underlying graph. In contrast to classical approaches that provide a point estimate based on a maximum likelihood or a maximum a posteriori criterion using (simple) priors on the precision matrix, we consider a prior on the graph and rely on annealed Langevin diffusion to generate samples from the posterior distribution. Since the Langevin sampler requires access to the score function of the underlying graph prior, we use graph neural networks to effectively estimate the score from a graph dataset (either available beforehand or generated from a known distribution). Numerical experiments demonstrate the benefits of our approach.


Towards Commonsense Knowledge based Fuzzy Systems for Supporting Size-Related Fine-Grained Object Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning has become the dominating approach for object detection. To achieve accurate fine-grained detection, one needs to employ a large enough model and a vast amount of data annotations. In this paper, we propose a commonsense knowledge inference module (CKIM) which leverages commonsense knowledge to assist a lightweight deep neural network base coarse-grained object detector to achieve accurate fine-grained detection. Specifically, we focus on a scenario where a single image contains objects of similar categories but varying sizes, and we establish a size-related commonsense knowledge inference module (CKIM) that maps the coarse-grained labels produced by the DL detector to size-related fine-grained labels. Considering that rule-based systems are one of the popular methods of knowledge representation and reasoning, our experiments explored two types of rule-based CKIMs, implemented using crisp-rule and fuzzy-rule approaches, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that compared with baseline methods, our approach achieves accurate fine-grained detection with a reduced amount of annotated data and smaller model size. Our code is available at: https://github.com/ZJLAB-AMMI/CKIM.