Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) trained for next-word prediction have demonstrated remarkable proficiency at producing coherent text. But are they equally adept at forming coherent probability judgments? We use probabilistic identities and repeated judgments to assess the coherence of probability judgments made by LLMs. Our results show that the judgments produced by these models are often incoherent, displaying human-like systematic deviations from the rules of probability theory. Moreover, when prompted to judge the same event, the mean-variance relationship of probability judgments produced by LLMs shows an inverted-U-shaped like that seen in humans. We propose that these deviations from rationality can be explained by linking autoregressive LLMs to implicit Bayesian inference and drawing parallels with the Bayesian Sampler model of human probability judgments.

Extracting meaningful information from high-dimensional data poses a formidable modeling challenge, particularly when the data is obscured by noise or represented through different modalities. In this research, we propose a novel non-parametric modeling approach, leveraging the Gaussian Process (GP), to characterize high-dimensional data by mapping it to a latent low-dimensional manifold. This model, named the Latent Discriminative Generative Decoder (LDGD), utilizes both the data (or its features) and associated labels (such as category or stimulus) in the manifold discovery process. To infer the latent variables, we derive a Bayesian solution, allowing LDGD to effectively capture inherent uncertainties in the data while enhancing the model's predictive accuracy and robustness. We demonstrate the application of LDGD on both synthetic and benchmark datasets. Not only does LDGD infer the manifold accurately, but its prediction accuracy in anticipating labels surpasses state-of-the-art approaches. We have introduced inducing points to reduce the computational complexity of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for large datasets. This enhancement facilitates batch training, allowing for more efficient processing and scalability in handling extensive data collections. Additionally, we illustrate that LDGD achieves higher accuracy in predicting labels and operates effectively with a limited training dataset, underscoring its efficiency and effectiveness in scenarios where data availability is constrained. These attributes set the stage for the development of non-parametric modeling approaches in the analysis of high-dimensional data; especially in fields where data are both high-dimensional and complex.

This paper proposes a model learning Semi-parametric relationships in an Expert Bayesian Network (SEBN) with linear parameter and structure constraints. We use Gaussian Processes and a Horseshoe prior to introduce minimal nonlinear components. To prioritize modifying the expert graph over adding new edges, we optimize differential Horseshoe scales. In real-world datasets with unknown truth, we generate diverse graphs to accommodate user input, addressing identifiability issues and enhancing interpretability. Evaluation on synthetic and UCI Liver Disorders datasets, using metrics like structural Hamming Distance and test likelihood, demonstrates our models outperform state-of-the-art semi-parametric Bayesian Network model.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Heterogeneous Bayesian decentralized data fusion captures the set of problems in which two robots must combine two probability density functions over non-equal, but overlapping sets of random variables. In the context of multi-robot dynamic systems, this enables robots to take a "divide and conquer" approach to reason and share data over complementary tasks instead of over the full joint state space. For example, in a target tracking application, this allows robots to track different subsets of targets and share data on only common targets. This paper presents a framework by which robots can each use a local factor graph to represent relevant partitions of a complex global joint probability distribution, thus allowing them to avoid reasoning over the entirety of a more complex model and saving communication as well as computation costs. From a theoretical point of view, this paper makes contributions by casting the heterogeneous decentralized fusion problem in terms of a factor graph, analyzing the challenges that arise due to dynamic filtering, and then developing a new conservative filtering algorithm that ensures statistical correctness. From a practical point of view, we show how this framework can be used to represent different multi-robot applications and then test it with simulations and hardware experiments to validate and demonstrate its statistical conservativeness, applicability, and robustness to real-world challenges.

Rule-based models, e.g., decision trees, are widely used in scenarios demanding high model interpretability for their transparent inner structures and good model expressivity. However, rule-based models are hard to optimize, especially on large data sets, due to their discrete parameters and structures. Ensemble methods and fuzzy/soft rules are commonly used to improve performance, but they sacrifice the model interpretability. To obtain both good scalability and interpretability, we propose a new classifier, named Rule-based Representation Learner (RRL), that automatically learns interpretable non-fuzzy rules for data representation and classification. To train the non-differentiable RRL effectively, we project it to a continuous space and propose a novel training method, called Gradient Grafting, that can directly optimize the discrete model using gradient descent. A novel design of logical activation functions is also devised to increase the scalability of RRL and enable it to discretize the continuous features end-to-end. Exhaustive experiments on ten small and four large data sets show that RRL outperforms the competitive interpretable approaches and can be easily adjusted to obtain a trade-off between classification accuracy and model complexity for different scenarios. Our code is available at: https://github.com/12wang3/rrl.

Machine learning typically presupposes classical probability theory which implies that aggregation is built upon expectation. There are now multiple reasons to motivate looking at richer alternatives to classical probability theory as a mathematical foundation for machine learning. We systematically examine a powerful and rich class of alternative aggregation functionals, known variously as spectral risk measures, Choquet integrals or Lorentz norms. We present a range of characterization results, and demonstrate what makes this spectral family so special. In doing so we arrive at a natural stratification of all coherent risk measures in terms of the upper probabilities that they induce by exploiting results from the theory of rearrangement invariant Banach spaces. We empirically demonstrate how this new approach to uncertainty helps tackling practical machine learning problems.

The paper presents an approach to the modelling of epistemic uncertainty in Conjunction Data Messages (CDM) and the classification of conjunction events according to the confidence in the probability of collision. The approach proposed in this paper is based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DSt) of evidence and starts from the assumption that the observed CDMs are drawn from a family of unknown distributions. The Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality is used to construct robust bounds on such a family of unknown distributions starting from a time series of CDMs. A DSt structure is then derived from the probability boxes constructed with DKW inequality. The DSt structure encapsulates the uncertainty in the CDMs at every point along the time series and allows the computation of the belief and plausibility in the realisation of a given probability of collision. The methodology proposed in this paper is tested on a number of real events and compared against existing practices in the European and French Space Agencies. We will show that the classification system proposed in this paper is more conservative than the approach taken by the European Space Agency but provides an added quantification of uncertainty in the probability of collision.

Slicing distribution selection has been used as an effective technique to improve the performance of parameter estimators based on minimizing sliced Wasserstein distance in applications. Previous works either utilize expensive optimization to select the slicing distribution or use slicing distributions that require expensive sampling methods. In this work, we propose an optimization-free slicing distribution that provides a fast sampling for the Monte Carlo estimation of expectation. In particular, we introduce the random-path projecting direction (RPD) which is constructed by leveraging the normalized difference between two random vectors following the two input measures. From the RPD, we derive the random-path slicing distribution (RPSD) and two variants of sliced Wasserstein, i.e., the Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (RPSW) and the Importance Weighted Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (IWRPSW). We then discuss the topological, statistical, and computational properties of RPSW and IWRPSW. Finally, we showcase the favorable performance of RPSW and IWRPSW in gradient flow and the training of denoising diffusion generative models on images.

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is commonly used in the optimization literature due to its fast convergence. In contrast to distributed optimization, distributed sampling allows for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference tasks. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. For our theoretical results, we use convex optimization tools to establish a fundamental inequality on the generated local sample iterates. This inequality enables us to show convergence of the distribution associated with these iterates to the underlying target distribution in Wasserstein distance. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.