Uncertainty
Comprehensive Exploration of Synthetic Data Generation: A Survey
Bauer, André, Trapp, Simon, Stenger, Michael, Leppich, Robert, Kounev, Samuel, Leznik, Mark, Chard, Kyle, Foster, Ian
Recent years have witnessed a surge in the popularity of Machine Learning (ML), applied across diverse domains. However, progress is impeded by the scarcity of training data due to expensive acquisition and privacy legislation. Synthetic data emerges as a solution, but the abundance of released models and limited overview literature pose challenges for decision-making. This work surveys 417 Synthetic Data Generation (SDG) models over the last decade, providing a comprehensive overview of model types, functionality, and improvements. Common attributes are identified, leading to a classification and trend analysis. The findings reveal increased model performance and complexity, with neural network-based approaches prevailing, except for privacy-preserving data generation. Computer vision dominates, with GANs as primary generative models, while diffusion models, transformers, and RNNs compete. Implications from our performance evaluation highlight the scarcity of common metrics and datasets, making comparisons challenging. Additionally, the neglect of training and computational costs in literature necessitates attention in future research. This work serves as a guide for SDG model selection and identifies crucial areas for future exploration.
Emergence and Causality in Complex Systems: A Survey on Causal Emergence and Related Quantitative Studies
Yuan, Bing, Jiang, Zhang, Lyu, Aobo, Wu, Jiayun, Wang, Zhipeng, Yang, Mingzhe, Liu, Kaiwei, Mou, Muyun, Cui, Peng
Emergence and causality are two fundamental concepts for understanding complex systems. They are interconnected. On one hand, emergence refers to the phenomenon where macroscopic properties cannot be solely attributed to the cause of individual properties. On the other hand, causality can exhibit emergence, meaning that new causal laws may arise as we increase the level of abstraction. Causal emergence theory aims to bridge these two concepts and even employs measures of causality to quantify emergence. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent advancements in quantitative theories and applications of causal emergence. Two key problems are addressed: quantifying causal emergence and identifying it in data. Addressing the latter requires the use of machine learning techniques, thus establishing a connection between causal emergence and artificial intelligence. We highlighted that the architectures used for identifying causal emergence are shared by causal representation learning, causal model abstraction, and world model-based reinforcement learning. Consequently, progress in any of these areas can benefit the others. Potential applications and future perspectives are also discussed in the final section of the review.
Generative quantum machine learning via denoising diffusion probabilistic models
Zhang, Bingzhi, Xu, Peng, Chen, Xiaohui, Zhuang, Quntao
Deep generative models are key-enabling technology to computer vision, text generation and large language models. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently gained much attention due to their ability to generate diverse and high-quality samples in many computer vision tasks, as well as to incorporate flexible model architectures and relatively simple training scheme. Quantum generative models, empowered by entanglement and superposition, have brought new insight to learning classical and quantum data. Inspired by the classical counterpart, we propose the \emph{quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic model} (QuDDPM) to enable efficiently trainable generative learning of quantum data. QuDDPM adopts sufficient layers of circuits to guarantee expressivity, while introduces multiple intermediate training tasks as interpolation between the target distribution and noise to avoid barren plateau and guarantee efficient training. We provide bounds on the learning error and demonstrate QuDDPM's capability in learning correlated quantum noise model, quantum many-body phases and topological structure of quantum data. The results provide a paradigm for versatile and efficient quantum generative learning.
EMO: Earth Mover Distance Optimization for Auto-Regressive Language Modeling
Ren, Siyu, Wu, Zhiyong, Zhu, Kenny Q.
Neural language models are probabilistic models of human text. They are predominantly trained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which is equivalent to minimizing the forward cross-entropy between the empirical data distribution and the model distribution. However, various degeneration phenomena are still widely observed when decoding from the distributions learned by such models. We establish that the forward cross-entropy is suboptimal as a distance metric for aligning human and model distribution due to its (1) recall-prioritization (2) negative diversity ignorance and (3) train-test mismatch. In this paper, we propose Earth Mover Distance Optimization (EMO) for auto-regressive language modeling. EMO capitalizes on the inherent properties of earth mover distance to address the aforementioned challenges. Due to the high complexity of direct computation, we further introduce a feasible upper bound for EMO to ease end-to-end training. Upon extensive evaluation of language models trained using EMO and MLE. We find that EMO demonstrates a consistently better language modeling performance than MLE across domains. Moreover, EMO demonstrates noteworthy enhancements in downstream performance with minimal fine-tuning on merely 25,000 sentences. This highlights the tremendous potential of EMO as a lightweight calibration method for enhancing large-scale pre-trained language models.
Convergence of Expectation-Maximization Algorithm with Mixed-Integer Optimization
The convergence of expectation-maximization (EM)-based algorithms typically requires continuity of the likelihood function with respect to all the unknown parameters (optimization variables). The requirement is not met when parameters comprise both discrete and continuous variables, making the convergence analysis nontrivial. This paper introduces a set of conditions that ensure the convergence of a specific class of EM algorithms that estimate a mixture of discrete and continuous parameters. Our results offer a new analysis technique for iterative algorithms that solve mixed-integer non-linear optimization problems. As a concrete example, we prove the convergence of the EM-based sparse Bayesian learning algorithm in [1] that estimates the state of a linear dynamical system with jointly sparse inputs and bursty missing observations. Our results establish that the algorithm in [1] converges to the set of stationary points of the maximum likelihood cost with respect to the continuous optimization variables.
AlphaRank: An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Ranking and Selection Problems
Zhou, Ruihan, Hong, L. Jeff, Peng, Yijie
We introduce AlphaRank, an artificial intelligence approach to address the fixed-budget ranking and selection (R&S) problems. We formulate the sequential sampling decision as a Markov decision process and propose a Monte Carlo simulation-based rollout policy that utilizes classic R&S procedures as base policies for efficiently learning the value function of stochastic dynamic programming. We accelerate online sample-allocation by using deep reinforcement learning to pre-train a neural network model offline based on a given prior. We also propose a parallelizable computing framework for large-scale problems, effectively combining "divide and conquer" and "recursion" for enhanced scalability and efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the performance of AlphaRank is significantly improved over the base policies, which could be attributed to AlphaRank's superior capability on the trade-off among mean, variance, and induced correlation overlooked by many existing policies.
Variable selection for Na\"ive Bayes classification
Blanquero, Rafael, Carrizosa, Emilio, Ramírez-Cobo, Pepa, Sillero-Denamiel, M. Remedios
The Na\"ive Bayes has proven to be a tractable and efficient method for classification in multivariate analysis. However, features are usually correlated, a fact that violates the Na\"ive Bayes' assumption of conditional independence, and may deteriorate the method's performance. Moreover, datasets are often characterized by a large number of features, which may complicate the interpretation of the results as well as slow down the method's execution. In this paper we propose a sparse version of the Na\"ive Bayes classifier that is characterized by three properties. First, the sparsity is achieved taking into account the correlation structure of the covariates. Second, different performance measures can be used to guide the selection of features. Third, performance constraints on groups of higher interest can be included. Our proposal leads to a smart search, which yields competitive running times, whereas the flexibility in terms of performance measure for classification is integrated. Our findings show that, when compared against well-referenced feature selection approaches, the proposed sparse Na\"ive Bayes obtains competitive results regarding accuracy, sparsity and running times for balanced datasets. In the case of datasets with unbalanced (or with different importance) classes, a better compromise between classification rates for the different classes is achieved.
RADIN: Souping on a Budget
Menes, Thibaut, Risser-Maroix, Olivier
Model Soups, extending Stochastic Weights Averaging (SWA), combine models fine-tuned with different hyperparameters. Yet, their adoption is hindered by computational challenges due to subset selection issues. In this paper, we propose to speed up model soups by approximating soups performance using averaged ensemble logits performances. Theoretical insights validate the congruence between ensemble logits and weight averaging soups across any mixing ratios. Our Resource ADjusted soups craftINg (RADIN) procedure stands out by allowing flexible evaluation budgets, enabling users to adjust his budget of exploration adapted to his resources while increasing performance at lower budget compared to previous greedy approach (up to 4% on ImageNet).
Algorithmic Robust Forecast Aggregation
Guo, Yongkang, Hartline, Jason D., Huang, Zhihuan, Kong, Yuqing, Shah, Anant, Yu, Fang-Yi
Forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple agents into a more accurate prediction. With forecast aggregation, decision-makers can reduce error, diversify risk and enhance accuracy based on the collective knowledge of agents compared to any single agent, thereby advancing the common good. Forecast aggregation is commonly used in many domains to generate more informed predictions for various variables, such as weather in weather forecasting, the spread of infectious diseases in public health, the outcome of games in sports, fuel prices in energy, and GDP growth in economics. In practice, one crucial challenge of forecast aggregation is that the aggregator may not have full knowledge of the information structure and the agents. Without this prior knowledge, the aggregator cannot employ Bayes rules to combine the forecasts optimally. Traditional prior-free aggregation methods, such as simple averaging, are especially bad on some information structures. For example, in weather forecasting, assume the prior probability of raining tomorrow is 30%, and there are two agents who will receive a conditionally independent binary signal (Low or High). Agents will report their posterior, which is 10% given the Low signal and 50% given the High signal. When both agents report 50%, the simple averaging will also output 50%.
Aesthetic Preference Prediction in Interior Design: Fuzzy Approach
Adilova, Ayana, Shamoi, Pakizar
Interior design is all about creating spaces that look and feel good. However, the subjective nature of aesthetic preferences presents a significant challenge in defining and quantifying what makes an interior design visually appealing. The current paper addresses this gap by introducing a novel methodology for quantifying and predicting aesthetic preferences in interior design. Our study combines fuzzy logic with image processing techniques. We collected a dataset of interior design images from social media platforms, focusing on essential visual attributes such as color harmony, lightness, and complexity. We integrate these features using weighted average to compute a general aesthetic score. Our approach considers individual color preferences in calculating the overall aesthetic preference. We initially gather user ratings for primary colors like red, brown, and others to understand their preferences. Then, we use the pixel count of the top five dominant colors in the image to get the color scheme preference. The color scheme preference and the aesthetic score are then passed as inputs to the fuzzy inference system to calculate an overall preference score. This score represents a comprehensive measure of the user's preference for a particular interior design, considering their color choices and general aesthetic appeal. We used the 2AFC (Two-Alternative Forced Choice) method to validate our methodology, achieving a notable hit rate of 0.7. This study can help designers and professionals better understand and meet people's interior design preferences, especially in a world that relies heavily on digital media.