This paper describes a family of seasonal and non-seasonal time series models that can be viewed as generalisations of additive and multiplicative exponential smoothing models, to model series that grow faster than linear but slower than exponential. Their development is motivated by fast-growing, volatile time series. In particular, our models have a global trend that can smoothly change from additive to multiplicative, and is combined with a linear local trend. Seasonality when used is multiplicative in our models, and the error is always additive but is heteroscedastic and can grow through a parameter sigma. We leverage state-of-the-art Bayesian fitting techniques to accurately fit these models that are more complex and flexible than standard exponential smoothing models. When applied to the M3 competition data set, our models outperform the best algorithms in the competition as well as other benchmarks, thus achieving to the best of our knowledge the best results of per-series univariate methods on this dataset in the literature. An open-source software package of our method is available.

Estimating the parameters of a probabilistic directed graphical model from incomplete data remains a long-standing challenge. This is because, in the presence of latent variables, both the likelihood function and posterior distribution are intractable without further assumptions about structural dependencies or model classes. While existing learning methods are fundamentally based on likelihood maximization, here we offer a new view of the parameter learning problem through the lens of optimal transport. This perspective licenses a general framework that operates on any directed graphs without making unrealistic assumptions on the posterior over the latent variables or resorting to black-box variational approximations. We develop a theoretical framework and support it with extensive empirical evidence demonstrating the flexibility and versatility of our approach. Across experiments, we show that not only can our method recover the ground-truth parameters but it also performs comparably or better on downstream applications, notably the non-trivial task of discrete representation learning.

Alan Turing proposed in 1950 a framework called an imitation game to decide if a machine could think. Using mathematics developed largely after Turing -- category theory -- we analyze a broader class of universal imitation games (UIGs), which includes static, dynamic, and evolutionary games. In static games, the participants are in a steady state. In dynamic UIGs, "learner" participants are trying to imitate "teacher" participants over the long run. In evolutionary UIGs, the participants are competing against each other in an evolutionary game, and participants can go extinct and be replaced by others with higher fitness. We use the framework of category theory -- in particular, two influential results by Yoneda -- to characterize each type of imitation game. Universal properties in categories are defined by initial and final objects. We characterize dynamic UIGs where participants are learning by inductive inference as initial algebras over well-founded sets, and contrast them with participants learning by conductive inference over the final coalgebra of non-well-founded sets. We briefly discuss the extension of our categorical framework for UIGs to imitation games on quantum computers.

Classic Delphi and Fuzzy Delphi methods are used to test content validity of data collection tools such as questionnaires. Fuzzy Delphi takes the opinion issued by judges from a linguistic perspective reducing ambiguity in opinions by using fuzzy numbers. We propose an extension named 2-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Delphi method to deal with scenarios in which judges show different expertise degrees by using fuzzy multigranular semantics of the linguistic terms and to obtain intermediate and final results expressed by 2-tuple linguistic values. The key idea of our proposal is to validate the full questionnaire by means of the evaluation of its parts, defining the validity of each item as a Decision Making problem. Taking the opinion of experts, we measure the degree of consensus, the degree of consistency, and the linguistic score of each item, in order to detect those items that affect, positively or negatively, the quality of the instrument. Considering the real need to evaluate a b-learning educational experience with a consensual questionnaire, we present a Decision Making model for questionnaire validation that solves it. Additionally, we contribute to this consensus reaching problem by developing an online tool under GPL v3 license. The software visualizes the collective valuations for each iteration and assists to determine which parts of the questionnaire should be modified to reach a consensual solution.

Large monolithic generative models trained on massive amounts of data have become an increasingly dominant approach in AI research. In this paper, we argue that we should instead construct large generative systems by composing smaller generative models together. We show how such a compositional generative approach enables us to learn distributions in a more data-efficient manner, enabling generalization to parts of the data distribution unseen at training time. We further show how this enables us to program and construct new generative models for tasks completely unseen at training. Finally, we show that in many cases, we can discover separate compositional components from data.

Statistical learning theory is the foundation of machine learning, providing theoretical bounds for the risk of models learnt from a (single) training set, assumed to issue from an unknown probability distribution. In actual deployment, however, the data distribution may (and often does) vary, causing domain adaptation/generalization issues. In this paper we lay the foundations for a `credal' theory of learning, using convex sets of probabilities (credal sets) to model the variability in the data-generating distribution. Such credal sets, we argue, may be inferred from a finite sample of training sets. Bounds are derived for the case of finite hypotheses spaces (both assuming realizability or not) as well as infinite model spaces, which directly generalize classical results.

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

Quantifying the causal relationships from purely observational data between variables in a system is a problem that has attracted great attention in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Full knowledge of the causal relations allows predicting the outcome of direct manipulations on the system, which can generally only be known from interventional data obtained by performing experiments such as randomized controlled trials (Eberhardt and Scheines, 2007). Predicting the effect of such manipulations without the need of costly or infeasible experiments is of great practical relevance, specifically in the fields of computational biology (Sachs et al., 2005), medicine (Richens et al., 2020) or AI (Schölkopf, 2022), since a central question concerns how a complex system will react to some treatment or outside influence of the user. Pearl's rules of do-calculus (Pearl, 2000) allow computing the intervention distributions resulting from these external manipulations from the joint distribution of the set of random variables together with a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The DAG represents the qualitative causal relationships among the variables; each node in the graph represents a variable and a directed edge indicates a direct causal effect. Probabilistic models that are based on such DAGs, commonly called causal Bayesian Networks (BNs), provide conventional grounds for probabilistic causal inference, due to their compact representation of the joint distribution and their intuitive graphical description of the causal structure.

In real-world applications, one often encounters ambiguously labeled data, where different annotators assign conflicting class labels. Partial-label learning allows training classifiers in this weakly supervised setting. While state-of-the-art methods already feature good predictive performance, they often suffer from miscalibrated uncertainty estimates. However, having well-calibrated uncertainty estimates is important, especially in safety-critical domains like medicine and autonomous driving. In this article, we propose a novel nearest-neighbor-based partial-label-learning algorithm that leverages Dempster-Shafer theory. Extensive experiments on artificial and real-world datasets show that the proposed method provides a well-calibrated uncertainty estimate and achieves competitive prediction performance. Additionally, we prove that our algorithm is risk-consistent.

Common crowdsourcing systems average estimates of a latent quantity of interest provided by many crowdworkers to produce a group estimate. We develop a new approach -- predict-each-worker -- that leverages self-supervised learning and a novel aggregation scheme. This approach adapts weights assigned to crowdworkers based on estimates they provided for previous quantities. When skills vary across crowdworkers or their estimates correlate, the weighted sum offers a more accurate group estimate than the average. Existing algorithms such as expectation maximization can, at least in principle, produce similarly accurate group estimates. However, their computational requirements become onerous when complex models, such as neural networks, are required to express relationships among crowdworkers. Predict-each-worker accommodates such complexity as well as many other practical challenges. We analyze the efficacy of predict-each-worker through theoretical and computational studies. Among other things, we establish asymptotic optimality as the number of engagements per crowdworker grows.