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 Uncertainty


Connecting the Dots: Is Mode-Connectedness the Key to Feasible Sample-Based Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between weight and function space, uncovering a systematic link between overparameterization and the difficulty of the sampling problem. Through extensive experiments, we establish practical guidelines for sampling and convergence diagnosis. As a result, we present a Bayesian deep ensemble approach as an effective solution with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.


Deep Conditional Generative Learning: Model and Error Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) based deep generative method for learning a conditional distribution, named the Conditional Follmer Flow. Starting from a standard Gaussian distribution, the proposed flow could efficiently transform it into the target conditional distribution at time 1. For effective implementation, we discretize the flow with Euler's method where we estimate the velocity field nonparametrically using a deep neural network. Furthermore, we derive a non-asymptotic convergence rate in the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the learned samples and the target distribution, providing the first comprehensive end-to-end error analysis for conditional distribution learning via ODE flow. Our numerical experiments showcase its effectiveness across a range of scenarios, from standard nonparametric conditional density estimation problems to more intricate challenges involving image data, illustrating its superiority over various existing conditional density estimation methods.


Approximate Control for Continuous-Time POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This stochastic filtering approach is especially appealing for the control of such partially observed dynamical systems. This includes among others, e.g., control problems This work proposes a decision-making framework with noisy sensor measurements, such as grasping for partially observable systems in continuous and navigation in robotics (Kurniawati et al., 2008) or time with discrete state and action cognitive medium access control (Zhao et al., 2005) for spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes communication systems. For finding decision strategies, intractable for large state spaces we employ which use the available observational data to control approximation methods for the filtering and the system at hand, a solid framework can be found the control problem that scale well with an increasing in the area of optimal control (Stengel, 1994).


A Probabilistic Model to explain Self-Supervised Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Self-supervised learning (SSL) learns representations by leveraging an auxiliary unsupervised task, such as classifying semantically related samples, e.g. different data augmentations or modalities. Of the many approaches to SSL, contrastive methods, e.g. SimCLR, CLIP and VicREG, have gained attention for learning representations that achieve downstream performance close to that of supervised learning. However, a theoretical understanding of the mechanism behind these methods eludes. We propose a generative latent variable model for the data and show that several families of discriminative self-supervised algorithms, including contrastive methods, approximately induce its latent structure over representations, providing a unifying theoretical framework. We also justify links to mutual information and the use of a projection head. Fitting our model generatively, as SimVE, improves performance over previous VAE methods on common benchmarks (e.g. FashionMNIST, CIFAR10, CelebA), narrows the gap to discriminative methods on _content_ classification and, as our analysis predicts, outperforms them where _style_ information is required, taking a step toward task-agnostic representations.


Critic-Actor for Average Reward MDPs with Function Approximation: A Finite-Time Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, there has been a lot of research work activity focused on carrying out asymptotic and non-asymptotic convergence analyses for two-timescale actor critic algorithms where the actor updates are performed on a timescale that is slower than that of the critic. In a recent work, the critic-actor algorithm has been presented for the infinite horizon discounted cost setting in the look-up table case where the timescales of the actor and the critic are reversed and asymptotic convergence analysis has been presented. In our work, we present the first critic-actor algorithm with function approximation and in the long-run average reward setting and present the first finite-time (non-asymptotic) analysis of such a scheme. We obtain optimal learning rates and prove that our algorithm achieves a sample complexity of $\mathcal{\tilde{O}}(\epsilon^{-2.08})$ for the mean squared error of the critic to be upper bounded by $\epsilon$ which is better than the one obtained for actor-critic in a similar setting. We also show the results of numerical experiments on three benchmark settings and observe that the critic-actor algorithm competes well with the actor-critic algorithm.


SignSGD with Federated Defense: Harnessing Adversarial Attacks through Gradient Sign Decoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Distributed learning is an effective approach to accelerate model training using multiple workers. However, substantial communication delays emerge between workers and a parameter server due to massive costs associated with communicating gradients. SignSGD with majority voting (signSGD-MV) is a simple yet effective optimizer that reduces communication costs through one-bit quantization, yet the convergence rates considerably decrease as adversarial workers increase. In this paper, we show that the convergence rate is invariant as the number of adversarial workers increases, provided that the number of adversarial workers is smaller than that of benign workers. The key idea showing this counter-intuitive result is our novel signSGD with federated defense (signSGD-FD). Unlike the traditional approaches, signSGD-FD exploits the gradient information sent by adversarial workers with the proper weights, which are obtained through gradient sign decoding. Experimental results demonstrate signSGD-FD achieves superior convergence rates over traditional algorithms in various adversarial attack scenarios.


Towards the new XAI: A Hypothesis-Driven Approach to Decision Support Using Evidence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prior research on AI-assisted human decision-making has explored several different explainable AI (XAI) approaches. A recent paper has proposed a paradigm shift calling for hypothesis-driven XAI through a conceptual framework called evaluative AI that gives people evidence that supports or refutes hypotheses without necessarily giving a decision-aid recommendation. In this paper we describe and evaluate an approach for hypothesis-driven XAI based on the Weight of Evidence (WoE) framework, which generates both positive and negative evidence for a given hypothesis. Through human behavioural experiments, we show that our hypothesis-driven approach increases decision accuracy, reduces reliance compared to a recommendation-driven approach and an AI-explanation-only baseline, but with a small increase in under-reliance compared to the recommendation-driven approach. Further, we show that participants used our hypothesis-driven approach in a materially different way to the two baselines.


Activity Detection for Massive Connectivity in Cell-free Networks with Unknown Large-scale Fading, Channel Statistics, Noise Variance, and Activity Probability: A Bayesian Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Activity detection is an important task in the next generation grant-free multiple access. While there are a number of existing algorithms designed for this purpose, they mostly require precise information about the network, such as large-scale fading coefficients, small-scale fading channel statistics, noise variance at the access points, and user activity probability. Acquiring these information would take a significant overhead and their estimated values might not be accurate. This problem is even more severe in cell-free networks as there are many of these parameters to be acquired. Therefore, this paper sets out to investigate the activity detection problem without the above-mentioned information. In order to handle so many unknown parameters, this paper employs the Bayesian approach, where the unknown variables are endowed with prior distributions which effectively act as regularizations. Together with the likelihood function, a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator and a variational inference algorithm are derived. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods, even without the knowledge of these system parameters, perform better than existing state-of-the-art methods, such as covariance-based and approximate message passing methods.


CreINNs: Credal-Set Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty Estimation in Classification Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty estimation is increasingly attractive for improving the reliability of neural networks. In this work, we present novel credal-set interval neural networks (CreINNs) designed for classification tasks. CreINNs preserve the traditional interval neural network structure, capturing weight uncertainty through deterministic intervals, while forecasting credal sets using the mathematical framework of probability intervals. Experimental validations on an out-of-distribution detection benchmark (CIFAR10 vs SVHN) showcase that CreINNs outperform epistemic uncertainty estimation when compared to variational Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs). Furthermore, CreINNs exhibit a notable reduction in computational complexity compared to variational BNNs and demonstrate smaller model sizes than DEs.


Graph Neural Networks with a Distribution of Parametrized Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditionally, graph neural networks have been trained using a single observed graph. However, the observed graph represents only one possible realization. In many applications, the graph may encounter uncertainties, such as having erroneous or missing edges, as well as edge weights that provide little informative value. To address these challenges and capture additional information previously absent in the observed graph, we introduce latent variables to parameterize and generate multiple graphs. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of the network parameters in an Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework based on the multiple graphs. Specifically, we iteratively determine the distribution of the graphs using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, incorporating the principles of PAC-Bayesian theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate improvements in performance against baseline models on node classification for heterogeneous graphs and graph regression on chemistry datasets.