Estimating the structure of a Bayesian network, in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), from observational data is a statistically and computationally hard problem with essential applications in areas such as causal discovery. Bayesian approaches are a promising direction for solving this task, as they allow for uncertainty quantification and deal with well-known identifiability issues. From a probabilistic inference perspective, the main challenges are (i) representing distributions over graphs that satisfy the DAG constraint and (ii) estimating a posterior over the underlying combinatorial space. We propose an approach that addresses these challenges by formulating a joint distribution on an augmented space of DAGs and permutations. We carry out posterior estimation via variational inference, where we exploit continuous relaxations of discrete distributions. We show that our approach can outperform competitive Bayesian and non-Bayesian benchmarks on a range of synthetic and real datasets.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, effective training of SMoE has proven to be challenging due to the representation collapse issue, which causes parameter redundancy and limited representation potentials. In this work, we propose a competition mechanism to address this fundamental challenge of representation collapse. By routing inputs only to experts with the highest neural response, we show that, under mild assumptions, competition enjoys the same convergence rate as the optimal estimator. We further propose CompeteSMoE, an effective and efficient algorithm to train large language models by deploying a simple router that predicts the competition outcomes. Consequently, CompeteSMoE enjoys strong performance gains from the competition routing policy while having low computation overheads. Our extensive empirical evaluations on two transformer architectures and a wide range of tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies.

Following the success of Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) for Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), new techniques such as Sequence Likelihood Calibration (SLiC) and Direct Policy Optimization (DPO) have been proposed that are offline in nature and use rewards in an indirect manner. These techniques, in particular DPO, have recently become the tools of choice for LLM alignment due to their scalability and performance. However, they leave behind important features of the PPO approach. Methods such as SLiC or RRHF make use of the Reward Model (RM) only for ranking/preference, losing fine-grained information and ignoring the parametric form of the RM (eg., Bradley-Terry, Plackett-Luce), while methods such as DPO do not use even a separate reward model. In this work, we propose a novel approach, named BRAIn, that re-introduces the RM as part of a distribution matching approach.BRAIn considers the LLM distribution conditioned on the assumption of output goodness and applies Bayes theorem to derive an intractable posterior distribution where the RM is explicitly represented. BRAIn then distills this posterior into an amortized inference network through self-normalized importance sampling, leading to a scalable offline algorithm that significantly outperforms prior art in summarization and AntropicHH tasks. BRAIn also has interesting connections to PPO and DPO for specific RM choices.

Supervised fairness-aware machine learning under distribution shifts is an emerging field that addresses the challenge of maintaining equitable and unbiased predictions when faced with changes in data distributions from source to target domains. In real-world applications, machine learning models are often trained on a specific dataset but deployed in environments where the data distribution may shift over time due to various factors. This shift can lead to unfair predictions, disproportionately affecting certain groups characterized by sensitive attributes, such as race and gender. In this survey, we provide a summary of various types of distribution shifts and comprehensively investigate existing methods based on these shifts, highlighting six commonly used approaches in the literature. Additionally, this survey lists publicly available datasets and evaluation metrics for empirical studies. We further explore the interconnection with related research fields, discuss the significant challenges, and identify potential directions for future studies.

In the last 5 years, the availability of large audio datasets in African countries has opened unlimited opportunities to build machine intelligence (MI) technologies that are closer to the people and speak, learn, understand, and do businesses in local languages, including for those who cannot read and write. Unfortunately, these audio datasets are not fully exploited by current MI tools, leaving several Africans out of MI business opportunities. Additionally, many state-of-the-art MI models are not culture-aware, and the ethics of their adoption indexes are questionable. The lack thereof is a major drawback in many applications in Africa. This paper summarizes recent developments in machine intelligence in Africa from a multi-layer multiscale and culture-aware ethics perspective, showcasing MI use cases in 54 African countries through 400 articles on MI research, industry, government actions, as well as uses in art, music, the informal economy, and small businesses in Africa. The survey also opens discussions on the reliability of MI rankings and indexes in the African continent as well as algorithmic definitions of unclear terms used in MI.

In-Context Learning (ICL) empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the capacity to learn in context, achieving downstream generalization without gradient updates but with a few in-context examples. Despite the encouraging empirical success, the underlying mechanism of ICL remains unclear, and existing research offers various viewpoints of understanding. These studies propose intuition-driven and ad-hoc technical solutions for interpreting ICL, illustrating an ambiguous road map. In this paper, we leverage a data generation perspective to reinterpret recent efforts and demonstrate the potential broader usage of popular technical solutions, approaching a systematic angle. For a conceptual definition, we rigorously adopt the terms of skill learning and skill recognition. The difference between them is skill learning can learn new data generation functions from in-context data. We also provide a comprehensive study on the merits and weaknesses of different solutions, and highlight the uniformity among them given the perspective of data generation, establishing a technical foundation for future research to incorporate the strengths of different lines of research.

We propose a novel approach based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) to control nonlinear dynamical systems. DDPMs are the state-of-art of generative models that have achieved success in a wide variety of sampling tasks. In our framework, we pose the feedback control problem as a generative task of drawing samples from a target set under control system constraints. The forward process of DDPMs constructs trajectories originating from a target set by adding noise. We learn to control a dynamical system in reverse such that the terminal state belongs to the target set. For control-affine systems without drift, we prove that the control system can exactly track the trajectory of the forward process in reverse, whenever the the Lie bracket based condition for controllability holds. We numerically study our approach on various nonlinear systems and verify our theoretical results. We also conduct numerical experiments for cases beyond our theoretical results on a physics-engine.

In longitudinal observational studies with a time-to-event outcome, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios within the study cohort. The g-formula is a particularly useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula approach, we developed a more adaptable Bayesian g-formula estimator. This estimator facilitates both longitudinal predictive and causal inference. It incorporates Bayesian additive regression trees in the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to mitigate bias due to model misspecification. Specifically, we introduce a more general class of g-formulas for discrete survival data. These formulas can incorporate the longitudinal balancing scores, which serve as an effective method for dimension reduction and are vital when dealing with an expanding array of time-varying confounders. The minimum sufficient formulation of these longitudinal balancing scores is linked to the nature of treatment regimes, whether static or dynamic. For each type of treatment regime, we provide posterior sampling algorithms, which are grounded in the Bayesian additive regression trees framework. We have conducted simulation studies to illustrate the empirical performance of our proposed Bayesian g-formula estimators, and to compare them with existing parametric estimators. We further demonstrate the practical utility of our methods in real-world scenarios using data from the Yale New Haven Health System's electronic health records.

Considering a graph with unknown weights, can we find the shortest path for a pair of nodes if we know the minimal Steiner trees associated with some subset of nodes? That is, with respect to a fixed latent decision-making system (e.g., a weighted graph), we seek to solve one optimization problem (e.g., the shortest path problem) by leveraging information associated with another optimization problem (e.g., the minimal Steiner tree problem). In this paper, we study such a prototype problem called \textit{query-decision regression with task shifts}, focusing on the shortest path problem and the minimum Steiner tree problem. We provide theoretical insights regarding the design of realizable hypothesis spaces for building scoring models, and present two principled learning frameworks. Our experimental studies show that such problems can be solved to a decent extent with statistical significance.

Recent diffusion models provide a promising zero-shot solution to noisy linear inverse problems without retraining for specific inverse problems. In this paper, we propose the first unified interpretation for existing zero-shot methods from the perspective of approximating the conditional posterior mean for the reverse diffusion process of conditional sampling. We reveal that recent methods are equivalent to making isotropic Gaussian approximations to intractable posterior distributions over clean images given diffused noisy images, with the only difference in the handcrafted design of isotropic posterior covariances. Inspired by this finding, we propose a general plug-and-play posterior covariance optimization based on maximum likelihood estimation to improve recent methods. To achieve optimal posterior covariance without retraining, we provide general solutions based on two approaches specifically designed to leverage pre-trained models with and without reverse covariances. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly enhance the overall performance or robustness to hyperparameters of recent methods. Code is available at https://github.com/xypeng9903/k-diffusion-inverse-problems