We study the problem of estimating the score function of an unknown probability distribution $\rho^*$ from $n$ independent and identically distributed observations in $d$ dimensions. Assuming that $\rho^*$ is subgaussian and has a Lipschitz-continuous score function $s^*$, we establish the optimal rate of $\tilde \Theta(n^{-\frac{2}{d+4}})$ for this estimation problem under the loss function $\|\hat s - s^*\|^2_{L^2(\rho^*)}$ that is commonly used in the score matching literature, highlighting the curse of dimensionality where sample complexity for accurate score estimation grows exponentially with the dimension $d$. Leveraging key insights in empirical Bayes theory as well as a new convergence rate of smoothed empirical distribution in Hellinger distance, we show that a regularized score estimator based on a Gaussian kernel attains this rate, shown optimal by a matching minimax lower bound. We also discuss the implication of our theory on the sample complexity of score-based generative models.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) for non-exchangeable data that formulates it as risk-sensitive policy optimization. We develop the Inside-Out SMC^2 algorithm that uses a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimator of the expected information gain and embeds it into a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) framework to perform gradient-based policy optimization. This is in contrast to recent approaches that rely on biased estimators of the expected information gain (EIG) to amortize the cost of experiments by learning a design policy in advance. Numerical validation on a set of dynamical systems showcases the efficacy of our method in comparison to other state-of-the-art strategies.

This paper introduces a novel generative model for discrete distributions based on continuous normalizing flows on the submanifold of factorizing discrete measures. Integration of the flow gradually assigns categories and avoids issues of discretizing the latent continuous model like rounding, sample truncation etc. General non-factorizing discrete distributions capable of representing complex statistical dependencies of structured discrete data, can be approximated by embedding the submanifold into a the meta-simplex of all joint discrete distributions and data-driven averaging. Efficient training of the generative model is demonstrated by matching the flow of geodesics of factorizing discrete distributions. Various experiments underline the approach's broad applicability.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Developmental AI is a bootstrapping approach where embodied AIs start with innate competences and learn by interacting with the world. They develop abilities in small steps along a bio-inspired trajectory. However, developmental AIs have not yet reached the abilities of young children. In contrast, mainstream approaches for creating AIs have led to valuable AI systems and impressive feats. These approaches include deep learning and generative approaches (e.g., large language models) and manually constructed symbolic approaches. Manually constructed AIs are brittle even in circumscribed domains. Generative AIs are helpful on average, but they can make strange mistakes and not notice them. They sometimes lack common sense and social alignment. This position paper lays out prospects, gaps, and challenges for augmenting AI mainstream approaches with developmental AI. The ambition is to create data-rich experientially based foundation models and human-compatible, resilient, and trustworthy AIs. This research aims to produce AIs that learn to communicate, establish common ground, read critically, consider the provenance of information, test hypotheses, and collaborate. A virtuous multidisciplinary research cycle has led to developmental AIs with capabilities for multimodal perception, object recognition, and manipulation. Computational models for hierarchical planning, abstraction discovery, curiosity, and language acquisition exist but need to be adapted to an embodied learning approach. They need to bridge competence gaps involving nonverbal communication, speech, reading, and writing. Aspirationally, developmental AIs would learn, share what they learn, and collaborate to achieve high standards. The approach would make the creation of AIs more democratic, enabling more people to train, test, build on, and replicate AIs.

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning paradigm where the clients possess decentralized training data and the central server handles aggregation and scheduling. Typically, FL algorithms involve clients training their local models using stochastic gradient descent (SGD), which carries drawbacks such as slow convergence and being prone to getting stuck in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose a message passing based Bayesian federated learning (BFL) framework to avoid these drawbacks.Specifically, we formulate the problem of deep neural network (DNN) learning and compression and as a sparse Bayesian inference problem, in which group sparse prior is employed to achieve structured model compression. Then, we propose an efficient BFL algorithm called EMTDAMP, where expectation maximization (EM) and turbo deep approximate message passing (TDAMP) are combined to achieve distributed learning and compression. The central server aggregates local posterior distributions to update global posterior distributions and update hyperparameters based on EM to accelerate convergence. The clients perform TDAMP to achieve efficient approximate message passing over DNN with joint prior distribution. We detail the application of EMTDAMP to Boston housing price prediction and handwriting recognition, and present extensive numerical results to demonstrate the advantages of EMTDAMP.

Releasing statistics using sensitive data can hurt the privacy of individuals contributing to the data (Narayanan and Shmatikov, 2008; Dick et al., 2023). Differential privacy (Dwork et al., 2006) is now a widely accepted solution for performing statistical analysis while protecting sensitive data. In the years since its release, researchers have made considerable progress in the development of differentially private estimators for a range of statistical problems such as mean estimation, median estimation, logistic regression (Asi and Duchi, 2020; Chaudhuri et al., 2011). However, deriving a conclusion from a single point estimate--whether an empirical mean or a classifier prediction-- without any consideration of uncertainty can lead to faulty, inaccurate decision-making (Gelman and Loken, 2013). To have any hope of making private statistical tools broadly applicable, we must build the requisite inferential tools. Constructing confidence intervals around a give point estimate is the most basic inferential task. We therefore develop tools to do so for a broad class of statistics of interest with differential privacy.

The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities and is extensively used in statistics and machine learning, especially in the field of Bayesian nonparametrics. Despite its widespread use, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent random probabilities. We propose a novel stochastic process called the logistic-beta process, whose logistic transformation yields a stochastic process with common beta marginals. Similar to the Gaussian process, the logistic-beta process can model dependence on both discrete and continuous domains, such as space or time, and has a highly flexible dependence structure through correlation kernels. Moreover, its normal variance-mean mixture representation leads to highly effective posterior inference algorithms. The flexibility and computational benefits of logistic-beta processes are demonstrated through nonparametric binary regression simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply the logistic-beta process in modeling dependent Dirichlet processes, and illustrate its application and benefits through Bayesian density regression problems in a toxicology study.

Markov Games (MG) is an important model for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). It was long believed that the "curse of multi-agents" (i.e., the algorithmic performance drops exponentially with the number of agents) is unavoidable until several recent works (Daskalakis et al., 2023; Cui et al., 2023; Wang et al., 2023. While these works did resolve the curse of multi-agents, when the state spaces are prohibitively large and (linear) function approximations are deployed, they either had a slower convergence rate of $O(T^{-1/4})$ or brought a polynomial dependency on the number of actions $A_{\max}$ -- which is avoidable in single-agent cases even when the loss functions can arbitrarily vary with time (Dai et al., 2023). This paper first refines the `AVLPR` framework by Wang et al. (2023), with an insight of *data-dependent* (i.e., stochastic) pessimistic estimation of the sub-optimality gap, allowing a broader choice of plug-in algorithms. When specialized to MGs with independent linear function approximations, we propose novel *action-dependent bonuses* to cover occasionally extreme estimation errors. With the help of state-of-the-art techniques from the single-agent RL literature, we give the first algorithm that tackles the curse of multi-agents, attains the optimal $O(T^{-1/2})$ convergence rate, and avoids $\text{poly}(A_{\max})$ dependency simultaneously.

This paper presents the Relevance Feature and Vector Machine (RFVM), a novel model that addresses the challenges of the fat-data problem when dealing with clinical prospective studies. The fat-data problem refers to the limitations of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms when working with databases in which the number of features is much larger than the number of samples (a common scenario in certain medical fields). To overcome such limitations, the RFVM incorporates different characteristics: (1) A Bayesian formulation which enables the model to infer its parameters without overfitting thanks to the Bayesian model averaging. (2) A joint optimisation that overcomes the limitations arising from the fat-data characteristic by simultaneously including the variables that define the primal space (features) and those that define the dual space (observations). (3) An integrated prunning that removes the irrelevant features and samples during the training iterative optimization. Also, this last point turns out crucial when performing medical prospective studies, enabling researchers to exclude unnecessary medical tests, reducing costs and inconvenience for patients, and identifying the critical patients/subjects that characterize the disorder and, subsequently, optimize the patient recruitment process that leads to a balanced cohort. The model capabilities are tested against state-of-the-art models in several medical datasets with fat-data problems. These experimental works show that RFVM is capable of achieving competitive classification accuracies while providing the most compact subset of data (in both terms of features and samples). Moreover, the selected features (medical tests) seem to be aligned with the existing medical literature.