Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to identify linear relationships, while others are applicable for non-linearities. Algorithms further vary in their sensitivity to noise and their ability to infer causal information from coupled vs. non-coupled time series. Therefore, different algorithms often generate different causal relationships for the same input. To achieve a more robust causal inference result, this publication proposes a novel data-driven two-phase multi-split causal ensemble model to combine the strengths of different causality base algorithms. In comparison to existing approaches, the proposed ensemble method reduces the influence of noise through a data partitioning scheme in the first phase. To achieve this, the data are initially divided into several partitions and the base algorithms are applied to each partition. Subsequently, Gaussian mixture models are used to identify the causal relationships derived from the different partitions that are likely to be valid. In the second phase, the identified relationships from each base algorithm are then merged based on three combination rules. The proposed ensemble approach is evaluated using multiple metrics, among them a newly developed evaluation index for causal ensemble approaches. We perform experiments using three synthetic datasets with different volumes and complexity, which are specifically designed to test causality detection methods under different circumstances while knowing the ground truth causal relationships. In these experiments, our causality ensemble outperforms each of its base algorithms. In practical applications, the use of the proposed method could hence lead to more robust and reliable causality results.

Zhang et al. (ICML 2021, PLMR 139, pp. 12447-1245) introduced probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) as a probabilistic model to unify probabilistic circuits (PCs) and determinantal point processes (DPPs). At a first glance, PGCs store a distribution in a very different way, they compute the probability generating polynomial instead of the probability mass function and it seems that this is the main reason why PGCs are more powerful than PCs or DPPs. However, PGCs also allow for negative weights, whereas classical PCs assume that all weights are nonnegative. One of the main insights of our paper is that the negative weights are responsible for the power of PGCs and not the different representation. PGCs are PCs in disguise, in particular, we show how to transform any PGC into a PC with negative weights with only polynomial blowup. PGCs were defined by Zhang et al. only for binary random variables. As our second main result, we show that there is a good reason for this: we prove that PGCs for categorial variables with larger image size do not support tractable marginalization unless NP = P. On the other hand, we show that we can model categorial variables with larger image size as PC with negative weights computing set-multilinear polynomials. These allow for tractable marginalization. In this sense, PCs with negative weights strictly subsume PGCs.

Ensuring Conditional Independence (CI) constraints is pivotal for the development of fair and trustworthy machine learning models. In this paper, we introduce \sys, a framework that harnesses optimal transport theory for data repair under CI constraints. Optimal transport theory provides a rigorous framework for measuring the discrepancy between probability distributions, thereby ensuring control over data utility. We formulate the data repair problem concerning CIs as a Quadratically Constrained Linear Program (QCLP) and propose an alternating method for its solution. However, this approach faces scalability issues due to the computational cost associated with computing optimal transport distances, such as the Wasserstein distance. To overcome these scalability challenges, we reframe our problem as a regularized optimization problem, enabling us to develop an iterative algorithm inspired by Sinkhorn's matrix scaling algorithm, which efficiently addresses high-dimensional and large-scale data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed methods, showcasing their practical utility in real-world data cleaning and preprocessing tasks. Furthermore, we provide comparisons with traditional approaches, highlighting the superiority of our techniques in terms of preserving data utility while ensuring adherence to the desired CI constraints.

It is crucial for robots to be aware of the presence of constraints in order to acquire safe policies. However, explicitly specifying all constraints in an environment can be a challenging task. State-of-the-art constraint inference algorithms learn constraints from demonstrations, but tend to be computationally expensive and prone to instability issues. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian method that infers constraints based on preferences over demonstrations. The main advantages of our proposed approach are that it 1) infers constraints without calculating a new policy at each iteration, 2) uses a simple and more realistic ranking of groups of demonstrations, without requiring pairwise comparisons over all demonstrations, and 3) adapts to cases where there are varying levels of constraint violation. Our empirical results demonstrate that our proposed Bayesian approach infers constraints of varying severity, more accurately than state-of-the-art constraint inference methods.

We consider the problem of jointly learning row-wise and column-wise dependencies of matrix-variate observations, which are modelled separately by two precision matrices. Due to the complicated structure of Kronecker-product precision matrices in the commonly used matrix-variate Gaussian graphical models, a sparser Kronecker-sum structure was proposed recently based on the Cartesian product of graphs. However, existing methods for estimating Kronecker-sum structured precision matrices do not scale well to large scale datasets. In this paper, we introduce DNNLasso, a diagonally non-negative graphical lasso model for estimating the Kronecker-sum structured precision matrix, which outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin in both accuracy and computational time. Our code is available at https://github.com/YangjingZhang/DNNLasso.

This book aims to provide a working introduction to the emerging fusion of modern statistical inference - aka machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) - and causal inference methods. The book is aimed at upper level undergraduates and master's-level students as well as doctoral students focusing on applied empirical research. A sufficient background for the core material is one semester of introductory econometrics and one semester of machine learning. We hope the book is also useful to empirical researchers looking to apply modern methods in their work. The book provides an overview of key ideas in both predictive inference and causal inference and shows how predictive tools are key ingredients to answering many causal questions.

Regression methods are fundamental for scientific and technological applications. However, fitted models can be highly unreliable outside of their training domain, and hence the quantification of their uncertainty is crucial in many of their applications. Based on the solution of a constrained optimization problem, we propose "prediction rigidities" as a method to obtain uncertainties of arbitrary pre-trained regressors. We establish a strong connection between our framework and Bayesian inference, and we develop a last-layer approximation that allows the new method to be applied to neural networks. This extension affords cheap uncertainties without any modification to the neural network itself or its training procedure. We show the effectiveness of our method on a wide range of regression tasks, ranging from simple toy models to applications in chemistry and meteorology.

We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for particle gradient descent (PGD)~(Kuntz et al., 2023), a recently introduced algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of large latent variable models obtained by discretizing a gradient flow of the free energy. We begin by showing that, for models satisfying a condition generalizing both the log-Sobolev and the Polyak--{\L}ojasiewicz inequalities (LSI and P{\L}I, respectively), the flow converges exponentially fast to the set of minimizers of the free energy. We achieve this by extending a result well-known in the optimal transport literature (that the LSI implies the Talagrand inequality) and its counterpart in the optimization literature (that the P{\L}I implies the so-called quadratic growth condition), and applying it to our new setting. We also generalize the Bakry--\'Emery Theorem and show that the LSI/P{\L}I generalization holds for models with strongly concave log-likelihoods. For such models, we further control PGD's discretization error, obtaining non-asymptotic error bounds. While we are motivated by the study of PGD, we believe that the inequalities and results we extend may be of independent interest.

Deep Gaussian processes have recently been proposed as natural objects to fit, similarly to deep neural networks, possibly complex features present in modern data samples, such as compositional structures. Adopting a Bayesian nonparametric approach, it is natural to use deep Gaussian processes as prior distributions, and use the corresponding posterior distributions for statistical inference. We introduce the deep Horseshoe Gaussian process Deep-HGP, a new simple prior based on deep Gaussian processes with a squared-exponential kernel, that in particular enables data-driven choices of the key lengthscale parameters. For nonparametric regression with random design, we show that the associated tempered posterior distribution recovers the unknown true regression curve optimally in terms of quadratic loss, up to a logarithmic factor, in an adaptive way. The convergence rates are simultaneously adaptive to both the smoothness of the regression function and to its structure in terms of compositions. The dependence of the rates in terms of dimension are explicit, allowing in particular for input spaces of dimension increasing with the number of observations.

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring highdimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural simulation-based inference algorithm which simultaneously offers simulation efficiency and fast empirical posterior testability, which is unique among modern algorithms. Our approach is simulation efficient by simultaneously estimating low-dimensional marginal posteriors instead of the joint posterior and by proposing simulations targeted to an observation of interest via a prior suitably truncated by an indicator function. Furthermore, by estimating a locally amortized posterior our algorithm enables efficient empirical tests of the robustness of the inference results. Since scientists cannot access the ground truth, these tests are necessary for trusting inference in real-world applications. We perform experiments on a marginalized version of the simulation-based inference benchmark and two complex and narrow posteriors, highlighting the simulator efficiency of our algorithm as well as the quality of the estimated marginal posteriors.