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 Uncertainty


Select-and-Sample for Spike-and-Slab Sparse Coding

Neural Information Processing Systems

Probabilistic inference serves as a popular model for neural processing. It is still unclear, however, how approximate probabilistic inference can be accurate and scalable to very high-dimensional continuous latent spaces. Especially as typical posteriors for sensory data can be expected to exhibit complex latent dependencies including multiple modes. Here, we study an approach that can efficiently be scaled while maintaining a richly structured posterior approximation under these conditions. As example model we use spike-and-slab sparse coding for V1 processing, and combine latent subspace selection with Gibbs sampling (selectand-sample).


Operator Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Variational inference is an umbrella term for algorithms which cast Bayesian inference as optimization. Classically, variational inference uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence to define the optimization. Though this divergence has been widely used, the resultant posterior approximation can suffer from undesirable statistical properties. To address this, we reexamine variational inference from its roots as an optimization problem. We use operators, or functions of functions, to design variational objectives.


New Liftable Classes for First-Order Probabilistic Inference Angelika Kimmig The University of British Columbia

Neural Information Processing Systems

Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeable, undistinguished objects as a whole. In this paper, we study the domain recursion inference rule, which, despite its central role in early theoretical results on domain-lifted inference, has later been believed redundant. We show that this rule is more powerful than expected, and in fact significantly extends the range of models for which lifted inference runs in time polynomial in the number of individuals in the domain. This includes an open problem called S4, the symmetric transitivity model, and a first-order logic encoding of the birthday paradox.


DISCO Nets: DISsimilarity COefficient Networks Diane Bouchacourt

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new type of probabilistic model which we call DISsimilarity COefficient Networks (DISCO Nets). DISCO Nets allow us to efficiently sample from a posterior distribution parametrised by a neural network. During training, DISCO Nets are learned by minimising the dissimilarity coefficient between the true distribution and the estimated distribution. This allows us to tailor the training to the loss related to the task at hand. We empirically show that (i) by modeling uncertainty on the output value, DISCO Nets outperform equivalent non-probabilistic predictive networks and (ii) DISCO Nets accurately model the uncertainty of the output, outperforming existing probabilistic models based on deep neural networks.


Showing versus Doing: Teaching by Demonstration

Neural Information Processing Systems

People often learn from others' demonstrations, and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) techniques have realized this capacity in machines. In contrast, teaching by demonstration has been less well studied computationally. Here, we develop a Bayesian model for teaching by demonstration. Stark differences arise when demonstrators are intentionally teaching (i.e.


Stein Variational Gradient Descent: A General Purpose Bayesian Inference Algorithm

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a general purpose variational inference algorithm that forms a natural counterpart of gradient descent for optimization. Our method iteratively transports a set of particles to match the target distribution, by applying a form of functional gradient descent that minimizes the KL divergence. Empirical studies are performed on various real world models and datasets, on which our method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. The derivation of our method is based on a new theoretical result that connects the derivative of KL divergence under smooth transforms with Stein's identity and a recently proposed kernelized Stein discrepancy, which is of independent interest.


A Bayesian method for reducing bias in neural representational similarity analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

In neuroscience, the similarity matrix of neural activity patterns in response to different sensory stimuli or under different cognitive states reflects the structure of neural representational space. Existing methods derive point estimations of neural activity patterns from noisy neural imaging data, and the similarity is calculated from these point estimations. We show that this approach translates structured noise from estimated patterns into spurious bias structure in the resulting similarity matrix, which is especially severe when signal-to-noise ratio is low and experimental conditions cannot be fully randomized in a cognitive task. We propose an alternative Bayesian framework for computing representational similarity in which we treat the covariance structure of neural activity patterns as a hyperparameter in a generative model of the neural data, and directly estimate this covariance structure from imaging data while marginalizing over the unknown activity patterns. Converting the estimated covariance structure into a correlation matrix offers a much less biased estimate of neural representational similarity. Our method can also simultaneously estimate a signal-to-noise map that informs where the learned representational structure is supported more strongly, and the learned covariance matrix can be used as a structured prior to constrain Bayesian estimation of neural activity patterns.


Unifying Count-Based Exploration and Intrinsic Motivation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider an agent's uncertainty about its environment and the problem of generalizing this uncertainty across states. Specifically, we focus on the problem of exploration in non-tabular reinforcement learning. Drawing inspiration from the intrinsic motivation literature, we use density models to measure uncertainty, and propose a novel algorithm for deriving a pseudo-count from an arbitrary density model. This technique enables us to generalize count-based exploration algorithms to the non-tabular case. We apply our ideas to Atari 2600 games, providing sensible pseudo-counts from raw pixels.


Bayesian Optimization with Robust Bayesian Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian optimization is a prominent method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions that is widely applied to tuning the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms. Despite its successes, the prototypical Bayesian optimization approach - using Gaussian process models - does not scale well to either many hyperparameters or many function evaluations. Attacking this lack of scalability and flexibility is thus one of the key challenges of the field. We present a general approach for using flexible parametric models (neural networks) for Bayesian optimization, staying as close to a truly Bayesian treatment as possible. We obtain scalability through stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, whose robustness we improve via a scale adaptation.


Solving Marginal MAP Problems with NP Oracles and Parity Constraints

Neural Information Processing Systems

Arising from many applications at the intersection of decision-making and machine learning, Marginal Maximum A Posteriori (Marginal MAP) problems unify the two main classes of inference, namely maximization (optimization) and marginal inference (counting), and are believed to have higher complexity than both of them. We propose XOR_MMAP, a novel approach to solve the Marginal MAP problem, which represents the intractable counting subproblem with queries to NP oracles, subject to additional parity constraints. XOR_MMAP provides a constant factor approximation to the Marginal MAP problem, by encoding it as a single optimization in a polynomial size of the original problem. We evaluate our approach in several machine learning and decision-making applications, and show that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art Marginal MAP solvers.