We show how to estimate a model's test error from unlabeled data, on distributions very different from the training distribution, while assuming only that certain conditional independencies are preserved between train and test. We do not need to assume that the optimal predictor is the same between train and test, or that the true distribution lies in any parametric family. We can also efficiently compute gradients of the estimated error and hence perform unsupervised discriminative learning. Our technical tool is the method of moments, which allows us to exploit conditional independencies in the absence of a fully-specified model. Our framework encompasses a large family of losses including the log and exponential loss, and extends to structured output settings such as conditional random fields.

We introduce the Forget-me-not Process, an efficient, non-parametric metaalgorithm for online probabilistic sequence prediction for piecewise stationary, repeating sources. Our method works by taking a Bayesian approach to partitioning a stream of data into postulated task-specific segments, while simultaneously building a model for each task. We provide regret guarantees with respect to piecewise stationary data sources under the logarithmic loss, and validate the method empirically across a range of sequence prediction and task identification problems.

Commonly used in many applications, robust PCA represents an algorithmic attempt to reduce the sensitivity of classical PCA to outliers. The basic idea is to learn a decomposition of some data matrix of interest into low rank and sparse components, the latter representing unwanted outliers. Although the resulting problem is typically NP-hard, convex relaxations provide a computationally-expedient alternative with theoretical support. However, in practical regimes performance guarantees break down and a variety of non-convex alternatives, including Bayesian-inspired models, have been proposed to boost estimation quality. Unfortunately though, without additional a priori knowledge none of these methods can significantly expand the critical operational range such that exact principal subspace recovery is possible. Into this mix we propose a novel pseudo-Bayesian algorithm that explicitly compensates for design weaknesses in many existing non-convex approaches leading to state-of-the-art performance with a sound analytical foundation.

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates. As opposed to many other methods in survival analysis, our framework does not impose unnecessary constraints in the hazard rate or in the survival function. Furthermore, our model handles left, right and interval censoring mechanisms common in survival analysis. We propose a MCMC algorithm to perform inference and an approximation scheme based on random Fourier features to make computations faster. We report experimental results on synthetic and real data, showing that our model performs better than competing models such as Cox proportional hazards, ANOVA-DDP and random survival forests.

We investigate a subclass of exponential family graphical models of which the sufficient statistics are defined by arbitrary additive forms.

We consider log-supermodular models on binary variables, which are probabilistic models with negative log-densities which are submodular. These models provide probabilistic interpretations of common combinatorial optimization tasks such as image segmentation. In this paper, we focus primarily on parameter estimation in the models from known upper-bounds on the intractable log-partition function. We show that the bound based on separable optimization on the base polytope of the submodular function is always inferior to a bound based on "perturb-and-MAP" ideas. Then, to learn parameters, given that our approximation of the log-partition function is an expectation (over our own randomization), we use a stochastic subgradient technique to maximize a lower-bound on the log-likelihood. This can also be extended to conditional maximum likelihood. We illustrate our new results in a set of experiments in binary image denoising, where we highlight the flexibility of a probabilistic model to learn with missing data.

Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.

We present a method for learning treewidth-bounded Bayesian networks from data sets containing thousands of variables. Bounding the treewidth of a Bayesian network greatly reduces the complexity of inferences. Yet, being a global property of the graph, it considerably increases the difficulty of the learning process. Our novel algorithm accomplishes this task, scaling both to large domains and to large treewidths. Our novel approach consistently outperforms the state of the art on experiments with up to thousands of variables.

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the posterior embedding estimator, which is faster and has comparable performance to the squared regularization in kernel Bayes' rule. This regularization coincides with a former thresholding approach used in kernel POMDPs whose consistency remains to be established. Our theoretical work solves this open problem and provides consistency analysis in regression settings. Based on our optimizational formulation, we propose a flexible Bayesian posterior regularization framework which for the first time enables us to put regularization at the distribution level. We apply this method to nonparametric state-space filtering tasks with extremely nonlinear dynamics and show performance gains over all other baselines.

In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each iteration, so that the optimization process takes the form of a sequence of finite models of increasing complexity. As a side benefit, this can be used to easily and efficiently identify an appropriate number of hidden units during the optimization. The resulting model can also be used as an initialization for typical state-of-the-art RBM training algorithms such as contrastive divergence, leading to models with consistently higher test likelihood than random initialization.