We propose a new variational inference method based on a proximal framework that uses the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as the proximal term. We make two contributions towards exploiting the geometry and structure of the variational bound. First, we propose a KL proximal-point algorithm and show its equivalence to variational inference with natural gradients (e.g., stochastic variational inference). Second, we use the proximal framework to derive efficient variational algorithms for non-conjugate models. We propose a splitting procedure to separate non-conjugate terms from conjugate ones. We linearize the non-conjugate terms to obtain subproblems that admit a closed-form solution. Overall, our approach converts inference in a non-conjugate model to subproblems that involve inference in well-known conjugate models. We show that our method is applicable to a wide variety of models and can result in computationally efficient algorithms. Applications to real-world datasets show comparable performances to existing methods.

The degree of confidence in one's choice or decision is a critical aspect of perceptual decision making. Attempts to quantify a decision maker's confidence by measuring accuracy in a task have yielded limited success because confidence and accuracy are typically not equal. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework to model confidence in perceptual decision making. We show that this model, based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), is able to predict confidence of a decision maker based only on the data available to the experimenter. We test our model on two experiments on confidence-based decision making involving the well-known random dots motion discrimination task. In both experiments, we show that our model's predictions closely match experimental data. Additionally, our model is also consistent with other phenomena such as the hard-easy effect in perceptual decision making.

Lifted inference rules exploit symmetries for fast reasoning in statistical relational models. Computational complexity of these rules is highly dependent on the choice of the constraint language they operate on and therefore coming up with the right kind of representation is critical to the success of lifted inference. In this paper, we propose a new constraint language, called setineq, which allows subset, equality and inequality constraints, to represent substitutions over the variables in the theory. Our constraint formulation is strictly more expressive than existing representations, yet easy to operate on. We reformulate the three main lifting rules: decomposer, generalized binomial and the recently proposed single occurrence for MAP inference, to work with our constraint representation. Experiments on benchmark MLNs for exact and sampling based inference demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over several other existing techniques.

A market scoring rule (MSR) - a popular tool for designing algorithmic prediction markets - is an incentive-compatible mechanism for the aggregation of probabilistic beliefs from myopic risk-neutral agents. In this paper, we add to a growing body of research aimed at understanding the precise manner in which the price process induced by a MSR incorporates private information from agents who deviate from the assumption of risk-neutrality. We first establish that, for a myopic trading agent with a risk-averse utility function, a MSR satisfying mild regularity conditions elicits the agent's risk-neutral probability conditional on the latest market state rather than her true subjective probability. Hence, we show that a MSR under these conditions effectively behaves like a more traditional method of belief aggregation, namely an opinion pool, for agents' true probabilities.

We show that the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of models derived from Luce's choice axiom (e.g., the Plackett-Luce model) can be expressed as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. This conveys insight into several recently proposed spectral inference algorithms. We take advantage of this perspective and formulate a new spectral algorithm that is significantly more accurate than previous ones for the Plackett-Luce model. With a simple adaptation, this algorithm can be used iteratively, producing a sequence of estimates that converges to the ML estimate. The ML version runs faster than competing approaches on a benchmark of five datasets. Our algorithms are easy to implement, making them relevant for practitioners at large.

Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability. This variability can arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as neural non-stationarity. To better understand the nature of co-variability in neural circuits and their impact on cortical information processing, we introduce a hierarchical dynamics model that is able to capture both slow inter-trial modulations in firing rates as well as neural population dynamics. We derive a Bayesian Laplace propagation algorithm for joint inference of parameters and population states. On neural population recordings from primary visual cortex, we demonstrate that our model provides a better account of the structure of neural firing than stationary dynamics models.

Learning of low dimensional structure in multidimensional data is a canonical problem in machine learning. One common approach is to suppose that the observed data are close to a lower-dimensional smooth manifold. There are a rich variety of manifold learning methods available, which allow mapping of data points to the manifold. However, there is a clear lack of probabilistic methods that allow learning of the manifold along with the generative distribution of the observed data. The best attempt is the Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), but identifiability issues lead to poor performance. We solve these issues by proposing a novel Coulomb repulsive process (Corp) for locations of points on the manifold, inspired by physical models of electrostatic interactions among particles. Combining this process with a GP prior for the mapping function yields a novel electrostatic GP (electroGP) process. Focusing on the simple case of a one-dimensional manifold, we develop efficient inference algorithms, and illustrate substantially improved performance in a variety of experiments including filling in missing frames in video.

Given samples from an unknown discrete distribution p, is it possible to distinguish whether p belongs to some class of distributions C versus p being far from every distribution in C? This fundamental question has received tremendous attention in statistics, focusing primarily on asymptotic analysis, as well as in information theory and theoretical computer science, where the emphasis has been on small sample size and computational complexity. Nevertheless, even for basic properties of discrete distributions such as monotonicity, independence, logconcavity, unimodality, and monotone-hazard rate, the optimal sample complexity is unknown. We provide a general approach via which we obtain sample-optimal and computationally efficient testers for all these distribution families.

We consider the problem of binary classification when the covariates conditioned on the each of the response values follow multivariate Gaussian distributions. We focus on the setting where the covariance matrices for the two conditional distributions are the same. The corresponding generative model classifier, derived via the Bayes rule, also called Linear Discriminant Analysis, has been shown to behave poorly in high-dimensional settings. We present a novel analysis of the classification error of any linear discriminant approach given conditional Gaussian models. This allows us to compare the generative model classifier, other recently proposed discriminative approaches that directly learn the discriminant function, and then finally logistic regression which is another classical discriminative model classifier.

Submodular and supermodular functions have found wide applicability in machine learning, capturing notions such as diversity and regularity, respectively. These notions have deep consequences for optimization, and the problem of (approximately) optimizing submodular functions has received much attention. However, beyond optimization, these notions allow specifying expressive probabilistic models that can be used to quantify predictive uncertainty via marginal inference. Prominent, well-studied special cases include Ising models and determinantal point processes, but the general class of log-submodular and log-supermodular models is much richer and little studied. In this paper, we investigate the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform approximate inference in general log-submodular and log-supermodular models. In particular, we consider a simple Gibbs sampling procedure, and establish two sufficient conditions, the first guaranteeing polynomial-time, and the second fast (O(n log n)) mixing. We also evaluate the efficiency of the Gibbs sampler on three examples of such models, and compare against a recently proposed variational approach.