The dynamics of simple decisions are well understood and modeled as a class of random walk models [e.g.

Spectral inference provides fast algorithms and provable optimality for latent topic analysis. But for real data these algorithms require additional ad-hoc heuristics, and even then often produce unusable results. We explain this poor performance by casting the problem of topic inference in the framework of Joint Stochastic Matrix Factorization (JSMF) and showing that previous methods violate the theoretical conditions necessary for a good solution to exist. We then propose a novel rectification method that learns high quality topics and their interactions even on small, noisy data. This method achieves results comparable to probabilistic techniques in several domains while maintaining scalability and provable optimality.

Calculation of the log-normalizer is a major computational obstacle in applications of log-linear models with large output spaces. The problem of fast normalizer computation has therefore attracted significant attention in the theoretical and applied machine learning literature. In this paper, we analyze a recently proposed technique known as "self-normalization", which introduces a regularization term in training to penalize log normalizers for deviating from zero. This makes it possible to use unnormalized model scores as approximate probabilities. Empirical evidence suggests that self-normalization is extremely effective, but a theoretical understanding of why it should work, and how generally it can be applied, is largely lacking. We prove upper bounds on the loss in accuracy due to self-normalization, describe classes of input distributions that self-normalize easily, and construct explicit examples of high-variance input distributions. Our theoretical results make predictions about the difficulty of fitting self-normalized models to several classes of distributions, and we conclude with empirical validation of these predictions.

Bayesian nonparametric models, such as Gaussian processes, provide a compelling framework for automatic statistical modelling: these models have a high degree of flexibility, and automatically calibrated complexity. However, automating human expertise remains elusive; for example, Gaussian processes with standard kernels struggle on function extrapolation problems that are trivial for human learners. In this paper, we create function extrapolation problems and acquire human responses, and then design a kernel learning framework to reverse engineer the inductive biases of human learners across a set of behavioral experiments. We use the learned kernels to gain psychological insights and to extrapolate in humanlike ways that go beyond traditional stationary and polynomial kernels. Finally, we investigate Occam's razor in human and Gaussian process based function learning.

Variational algorithms such as tree-reweighted belief propagation can provide deterministic bounds on the partition function, but are often loose and difficult to use in an "any-time" fashion, expending more computation for tighter bounds. On the other hand, Monte Carlo estimators such as importance sampling have excellent any-time behavior, but depend critically on the proposal distribution. We propose a simple Monte Carlo based inference method that augments convex variational bounds by adding importance sampling (IS). We argue that convex variational methods naturally provide good IS proposals that "cover" the target probability, and reinterpret the variational optimization as designing a proposal to minimize an upper bound on the variance of our IS estimator. This both provides an accurate estimator and enables construction of any-time probabilistic bounds that improve quickly and directly on state-of-the-art variational bounds, and provide certificates of accuracy given enough samples relative to the error in the initial bound.

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and runs independent sampling algorithms on each subset. The subset posterior draws are then aggregated via some combining rules to obtain the final approximation. Existing EP-MCMC algorithms are limited by approximation accuracy and difficulty in resampling. In this article, we propose a new EP-MCMC algorithm PART that solves these problems. The new algorithm applies random partition trees to combine the subset posterior draws, which is distribution-free, easy to resample from and can adapt to multiple scales. We provide theoretical justification and extensive experiments illustrating empirical performance.

We consider the problem of finding M best diverse solutions of energy minimization problems for graphical models. Contrary to the sequential method of Batra et al., which greedily finds one solution after another, we infer all M solutions jointly. It was shown recently that such jointly inferred labelings not only have smaller total energy but also qualitatively outperform the sequentially obtained ones. The only obstacle for using this new technique is the complexity of the corresponding inference problem, since it is considerably slower algorithm than the method of Batra et al. In this work we show that the joint inference of M best diverse solutions can be formulated as a submodular energy minimization if the original MAP-inference problem is submodular, hence fast inference techniques can be used. In addition to the theoretical results we provide practical algorithms that outperform the current state-of-the-art and can be used in both submodular and non-submodular case.

This paper presents a methodology for creating streaming, distributed inference algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models. In the proposed framework, processing nodes receive a sequence of data minibatches, compute a variational posterior for each, and make asynchronous streaming updates to a central model. In contrast to previous algorithms, the proposed framework is truly streaming, distributed, asynchronous, learning-rate-free, and truncation-free. The key challenge in developing the framework, arising from the fact that BNP models do not impose an inherent ordering on their components, is finding the correspondence between minibatch and central BNP posterior components before performing each update. To address this, the paper develops a combinatorial optimization problem over component correspondences, and provides an efficient solution technique. The paper concludes with an application of the methodology to the DP mixture model, with experimental results demonstrating its practical scalability and performance.

In this paper, we propose a novel parameter estimator for probabilistic models on discrete space. The proposed estimator is derived from minimization of homogeneous divergence and can be constructed without calculation of the normalization constant, which is frequently infeasible for models in the discrete space. We investigate statistical properties of the proposed estimator such as consistency and asymptotic normality, and reveal a relationship with the information geometry. Some experiments show that the proposed estimator attains comparable performance to the maximum likelihood estimator with drastically lower computational cost.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an on-the-job setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets--named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels.