Uncertainty
Fully Bayesian inference for neural models with negative-binomial spiking
Characterizing the information carried by neural populations in the brain requires accurate statistical models of neural spike responses. The negative-binomial distribution provides a convenient model for over-dispersed spike counts, that is, responses with greater-than-Poisson variability. Here we describe a powerful data-augmentation framework for fully Bayesian inference in neural models with negative-binomial spiking. Our approach relies on a recently described latentvariable representation of the negative-binomial distribution, which equates it to a Polya-gamma mixture of normals. This framework provides a tractable, conditionally Gaussian representation of the posterior that can be used to design efficient EM and Gibbs sampling based algorithms for inference in regression and dynamic factor models. We apply the model to neural data from primate retina and show that it substantially outperforms Poisson regression on held-out data, and reveals latent structure underlying spike count correlations in simultaneously recorded spike trains.
Probabilistic Low-Rank Subspace Clustering
In this paper, we consider the problem of clustering data points into lowdimensional subspaces in the presence of outliers. We pose the problem using a density estimation formulation with an associated generative model. Based on this probability model, we first develop an iterative expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and then derive its global solution. In addition, we develop two Bayesian methods based on variational Bayesian (VB) approximation, which are capable of automatic dimensionality selection. While the first method is based on an alternating optimization scheme for all unknowns, the second method makes use of recent results in VB matrix factorization leading to fast and effective estimation. Both methods are extended to handle sparse outliers for robustness and can handle missing values. Experimental results suggest that proposed methods are very effective in subspace clustering and identifying outliers.
A Neural Autoregressive Topic Model
We describe a new model for learning meaningful representations of text documents from an unlabeled collection of documents. This model is inspired by the recently proposed Replicated Softmax, an undirected graphical model of word counts that was shown to learn a better generative model and more meaningful document representations. Specifically, we take inspiration from the conditional mean-field recursive equations of the Replicated Softmax in order to define a neural network architecture that estimates the probability of observing a new word in a given document given the previously observed words. This paradigm also allows us to replace the expensive softmax distribution over words with a hierarchical distribution over paths in a binary tree of words. The end result is a model whose training complexity scales logarithmically with the vocabulary size instead of linearly as in the Replicated Softmax. Our experiments show that our model is competitive both as a generative model of documents and as a document representation learning algorithm.
Collaborative Gaussian Processes for Preference Learning
We present a new model based on Gaussian processes (GPs) for learning pairwise preferences expressed by multiple users. Inference is simplified by using a preference kernel for GPs which allows us to combine supervised GP learning of user preferences with unsupervised dimensionality reduction for multi-user systems. The model not only exploits collaborative information from the shared structure in user behavior, but may also incorporate user features if they are available. Approximate inference is implemented using a combination of expectation propagation and variational Bayes. Finally, we present an efficient active learning strategy for querying preferences. The proposed technique performs favorably on real-world data against state-of-the-art multi-user preference learning algorithms.
A nonparametric variable clustering model
Factor analysis models effectively summarise the covariance structure of high dimensional data, but the solutions are typically hard to interpret. This motivates attempting to find a disjoint partition, i.e. a simple clustering, of observed variables into highly correlated subsets. We introduce a Bayesian non-parametric approach to this problem, and demonstrate advantages over heuristic methods proposed to date. Our Dirichlet process variable clustering (DPVC) model can discover blockdiagonal covariance structures in data. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and gene expression analysis problems.
Latent Coincidence Analysis: A Hidden Variable Model for Distance Metric Learning
We describe a latent variable model for supervised dimensionality reduction and distance metric learning. The model discovers linear projections of high dimensional data that shrink the distance between similarly labeled inputs and expand the distance between differently labeled ones. The model's continuous latent variables locate pairs of examples in a latent space of lower dimensionality. The model differs significantly from classical factor analysis in that the posterior distribution over these latent variables is not always multivariate Gaussian. Nevertheless we show that inference is completely tractable and derive an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation. We also compare the model to other approaches in distance metric learning. The model's main advantage is its simplicity: at each iteration of the EM algorithm, the distance metric is re-estimated by solving an unconstrained least-squares problem. Experiments show that these simple updates are highly effective.
Value Pursuit Iteration
Value Pursuit Iteration (VPI) is an approximate value iteration algorithm that finds a close to optimal policy for reinforcement learning problems with large state spaces. VPI has two main features: First, it is a nonparametric algorithm that finds a good sparse approximation of the optimal value function given a dictionary of features. The algorithm is almost insensitive to the number of irrelevant features. Second, after each iteration of VPI, the algorithm adds a set of functions based on the currently learned value function to the dictionary. This increases the representation power of the dictionary in a way that is directly relevant to the goal of having a good approximation of the optimal value function. We theoretically study VPI and provide a finite-sample error upper bound for it.
A Nonparametric Conjugate Prior Distribution for the Maximizing Argument of a Noisy Function
We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step procedure of first, doing inference over the function space and second, finding the extrema of these functions. Here we skip the representation step and directly model the distribution over extrema. To this end, we devise a non-parametric conjugate prior based on a kernel regressor.
Random Utility Theory for Social Choice
A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.
Bayesian models for Large-scale Hierarchical Classification
A challenging problem in hierarchical classification is to leverage the hierarchical relations among classes for improving classification performance. An even greater challenge is to do so in a manner that is computationally feasible for large scale problems. This paper proposes a set of Bayesian methods to model hierarchical dependencies among class labels using multivariate logistic regression. Specifically, the parent-child relationships are modeled by placing a hierarchical prior over the children nodes centered around the parameters of their parents; thereby encouraging classes nearby in the hierarchy to share similar model parameters. We present variational algorithms for tractable posterior inference in these models, and provide a parallel implementation that can comfortably handle largescale problems with hundreds of thousands of dimensions and tens of thousands of classes. We run a comparative evaluation on multiple large-scale benchmark datasets that highlights the scalability of our approach and shows improved performance over the other state-of-the-art hierarchical methods.