Bayesian Optimization is a widely used method for optimizing expensive black-box functions, relying on probabilistic surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes. The quality of the surrogate model is crucial for good optimization performance, especially in the few-shot setting where only a small number of batches of points can be evaluated. In this setting, the initialization plays a critical role in shaping the surrogate's predictive quality and guiding subsequent optimization. Despite this, practitioners typically rely on (quasi-)random designs to cover the input space. However, such approaches neglect two key factors: (a) space-filling designs may not be desirable to reduce predictive uncertainty, and (b) efficient hyperparameter learning during initialization is essential for high-quality prediction, which may conflict with space-filling designs. To address these limitations, we propose Hyperparameter-Informed Predictive Exploration (HIPE), a novel acquisition strategy that balances predictive uncertainty reduction with hyperparameter learning using information-theoretic principles. We derive a closed-form expression for HIPE in the Gaussian Process setting and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments in active learning and few-shot BO. Our results show that HIPE outperforms standard initialization strategies in terms of predictive accuracy, hyperparameter identification, and subsequent optimization performance, particularly in large-batch, few-shot settings relevant to many real-world Bayesian Optimization applications.

We introduce RFMPose, a novel generative framework for category-level 6D object pose estimation that learns deterministic pose trajectories through Riemannian Flow Matching (RFM). Existing discriminative approaches struggle with multihypothesis predictions (e.g., symmetry ambiguities) and often require specialized network architectures. RFMPose advances this paradigm through three key innovations: (1) Ensuring geometric consistency via geodesic interpolation on Riemannian manifolds combined with bi-invariant metric constraints; (2) Alleviating symmetryinduced ambiguities through Riemannian Optimal Transport for probability mass redistribution without ad-hoc design; (3) Enabling end-to-end likelihood estimation through Hutchinson trace approximation, thereby eliminating auxiliary model dependencies. Extensive experiments on the Omni6DPose demonstrate state-ofthe-art performance of the proposed method, with significant improvements of +4.1 in IoU25 and +2.4 in 5 2cm metrics compared to prior generative approaches. Furthermore, the proposed RFM framework exhibits robust sim-to-real transfer capabilities and facilitates pose tracking extensions with minimal architectural adaptation.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers a cost-effective solution for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), but it often produces overconfident predictions in datascarce few-shot settings. To address this issue, several classical statistical learning approaches have been repurposed for scalable uncertainty-aware LoRA fine-tuning. However, these approaches neglect how input characteristics affect the predictive uncertainty estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Contextual Low-Rank Adaptation (C-LoRA) as a novel uncertainty-aware and parameter efficient finetuning approach, by developing new lightweight LoRA modules contextualized to each input data sample to dynamically adapt uncertainty estimates. Incorporating data-driven contexts into the parameter posteriors, C-LoRA mitigates overfitting, achieves well-calibrated uncertainties, and yields robust predictions.

Expected information gain (EIG) is a crucial quantity in Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), quantifying how useful an experiment is by the amount we expect the posterior to differ from the prior. However, evaluating the EIG can be computationally expensive since it generally requires estimating the posterior normalizing constant. In this work, we leverage two idiosyncrasies of BOED to improve efficiency of EIG estimation via sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). First, in BOED we simulate the data and thus know the true underlying parameters. Second, we ultimately care about the EIG, not the individual normalizing constants. Often we observe that the Monte Carlo variance of standard SMC estimators for the normalizing constant of a single dataset are significantly lower than the variance of the normalizing constants across datasets; the latter thus contributes the majority of the variance for EIG estimates. This suggests the potential to slightly increase variance while drastically decreasing computation time by reducing the SMC population size, which leads us to an EIG-specific SMC estimator that starts with only a single sample from the posterior and tempers backwards towards the prior. Using this single-sample estimator, which we call reverse-annealed SMC (RA-SMC), we show that it is possible to estimate EIG with orders of magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations in three models: a four-dimensional spring-mass, a six-dimensional Johnson-Cook model and a four-dimensional source-finding problem.

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, Pendulum, Hopper, Ant, and Humanoid, demonstrating PairEpEsts' advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the distribution of event marks is highly imbalanced in many real-world applications, with some marks being frequent but others rare. The imbalance poses a significant challenge to the performance of the next event prediction, especially for events of rare marks. To address this issue, we propose a thresholding method, which learns thresholds to tune the mark probability normalized by the mark's prior probability to optimize mark prediction, rather than predicting the mark directly based on the mark probability as in existing studies. In conjunction with this method, we predict the mark first and then the time. In particular, we develop a novel neural MTPP model to support effective time sampling and estimation of mark probability without computationally expensive numerical improper integration. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our solution against various baselines for the next event mark and time prediction.

We propose Joint Moment Estimation (JME), a method for continually and privately estimating both the first and second moments of a data stream with reduced noise compared to naive approaches. JME supports the matrix mechanism and exploits a joint sensitivity analysis to identify a privacy regime in which the second-moment estimation incurs no additional privacy cost, thereby improving accuracy while maintaining privacy. We demonstrate JME's effectiveness in two applications: estimating the running mean and covariance matrix for Gaussian density estimation and model training with DP-Adam.

In human-AI interaction, effective communication relies on aligning the AI agent's model with the human user's mental model, a process known as model reconciliation. However, existing model reconciliation approaches predominantly assume deterministic models, overlooking the fact that human knowledge is often uncertain or probabilistic. To bridge this gap, we present a probabilistic model reconciliation framework that resolves inconsistencies in MPE outcome probabilities between an agent's and a user's models. Our approach is built on probabilistic logic programming (PLP) using ProbLog, where explanations are generated as cost-optimal model updates that reconcile these probabilistic differences. We develop two search algorithms - a generic baseline and an optimized version. The latter is guided by theoretical insights and further extended with greedy and weighted variants to enhance scalability and efficiency. Our approach is validated through a user study on explanation types and computational experiments showing that the optimized version consistently outperforms the generic baseline.

Inverse problems, where the goal is to recover an unknown signal from noisy or incomplete measurements, are central to applications in medical imaging, remote sensing, and computational biology. Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful priors for solving such problems. However, existing methods either rely on projection-based techniques that enforce measurement consistency through heuristic updates, or they approximate the likelihood p(y | x), often resulting in artifacts and instability under complex or high-noise conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a novel framework called coupled data and measurement space diffusion posterior sampling (C-DPS), which eliminates the need for constraint tuning or likelihood approximation. C-DPS introduces a forward stochastic process in the measurement space {yt}, evolving in parallel with the data-space diffusion {xt}, which enables the derivation of a closed-form posterior p(xt 1 | xt,yt 1). This coupling allows for accurate and recursive sampling based on a well-defined posterior distribution. Empirical results demonstrate that C-DPS consistently outperforms existing baselines, both qualitatively and quantitatively, across multiple inverse problem benchmarks.

Task planning under uncertainty is essential for home-service robots operating in the real world. Tasks involve ambiguous human instructions, hidden or unknown object locations, and open-vocabulary object types, leading to significant open-ended uncertainty and a boundlessly large planning space. To address these challenges, we propose Tru-POMDP, a planner that combines structured belief generation using Large Language Models (LLMs) with principled POMDP planning. Tru-POMDP introduces a hierarchical Tree of Hypotheses (TOH), which systematically queries an LLM to construct high-quality particle beliefs over possible world states and human goals. We further formulate an open-ended POMDP model that enables rigorous Bayesian belief tracking and efficient belief-space planning over these LLM-generated hypotheses. Experiments on complex object rearrangement tasks across diverse kitchen environments show that Tru-POMDP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based and LLM-tree-search hybrid planners, achieving higher success rates with significantly better plans, stronger robustness to ambiguity and occlusion, and greater planning efficiency.1