Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI methods have made use of neural networks (NN) to provide approximate, yet expressive constructs for the unavailable likelihood function and the posterior distribution. However, they do not generally achieve an optimal trade-off between accuracy and computational demand. In this work, we propose an alternative that provides both approximations to the likelihood and the posterior distribution, using structured mixtures of probability distributions. Our approach produces accurate posterior inference when compared to state-of-the-art NN-based SBI methods, while exhibiting a much smaller computational footprint. We illustrate our results on several benchmark models from the SBI literature.

Distributing labeling tasks among hundreds or thousands of annotators is an increasingly important method for annotating large datasets. We present a method for estimating the underlying value (e.g. the class) of each image from (noisy) annotations provided by multiple annotators. Our method is based on a model of the image formation and annotation process. Each image has different characteristics that are represented in an abstract Euclidean space. Each annotator is modeled as a multidimensional entity with variables representing competence, expertise and bias. This allows the model to discover and represent groups of annotators that have different sets of skills and knowledge, as well as groups of images that differ qualitatively. We find that our model predicts ground truth labels on both synthetic and real data more accurately than state of the art methods. Experiments also show that our model, starting from a set of binary labels, may discover rich information, such as different "schools of thought" amongst the annotators, and can group together images belonging to separate categories.

Gaussian graphical models with sparsity in the inverse covariance matrix are of significant interest in many modern applications. For the problem of recovering the graphical structure, information criteria provide useful optimization objectives for algorithms searching through sets of graphs or for selection of tuning parameters of other methods such as the graphical lasso, which is a likelihood penalization technique. In this paper we establish the consistency of an extended Bayesian information criterion for Gaussian graphical models in a scenario where both the number of variables p and the sample size n grow. Compared to earlier work on the regression case, our treatment allows for growth in the number of non-zero parameters in the true model, which is necessary in order to cover connected graphs. We demonstrate the performance of this criterion on simulated data when used in conjunction with the graphical lasso, and verify that the criterion indeed performs better than either cross-validation or the ordinary Bayesian information criterion when p and the number of non-zero parameters q both scale with n.

Renewal processes are generalizations of the Poisson process on the real line whose intervals are drawn i.i.d.

There are many settings in which we wish to fit a model of the behavior of individuals but where our data consist only of aggregate information (counts or low-dimensional contingency tables). This paper introduces Collective Graphical Models--a framework for modeling and probabilistic inference that operates directly on the sufficient statistics of the individual model. We derive a highlyefficient Gibbs sampling algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the sufficient statistics conditioned on noisy aggregate observations, prove its correctness, and demonstrate its effectiveness experimentally.

State-of-the-art statistical methods in neuroscience have enabled us to fit mathematical models to experimental data and subsequently to infer the dynamics of hidden parameters underlying the observable phenomena. Here, we develop a Bayesian method for inferring the time-varying mean and variance of the synaptic input, along with the dynamics of each ion channel from a single voltage trace of a neuron. An estimation problem may be formulated on the basis of the state-space model with prior distributions that penalize large fluctuations in these parameters. After optimizing the hyperparameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood, the state-space model provides the time-varying parameters of the input signals and the ion channel states. The proposed method is tested not only on the simulated data from the Hodgkin Huxley type models but also on experimental data obtained from a cortical slice in vitro.

We show that the λ-return target used in the TD(λ) family of algorithms is the maximum likelihood estimator for a specific model of how the variance of an n-step return estimate increases with n.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision-making problems represented as an influence diagram. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity, which allows us to solve problems with limited information.

We present a joint image segmentation and labeling model (JSL) which, given a bag of figure-ground segment hypotheses extracted at multiple image locations and scales, constructs a joint probability distribution over both the compatible image interpretations (tilings or image segmentations) composed from those segments, and over their labeling into categories. The process of drawing samples from the joint distribution can be interpreted as first sampling tilings, modeled as maximal cliques, from a graph connecting spatially non-overlapping segments in the bag [1], followed by sampling labels for those segments, conditioned on the choice of a particular tiling. We learn the segmentation and labeling parameters jointly, based on Maximum Likelihood with a novel Incremental Saddle Point estimation procedure. The partition function over tilings and labelings is increasingly more accurately approximated by including incorrect configurations that a not-yet-competent model rates probable during learning. We show that the proposed methodology matches the current state of the art in the Stanford dataset [2], as well as in VOC2010, where 41.7% accuracy on the test set is achieved.