Uncertainty
Multi-Sample Long Range Path Planning under Sensing Uncertainty for Off-Road Autonomous Driving
Schmittle, Matt, Baijal, Rohan, Hou, Brian, Srinivasa, Siddhartha, Boots, Byron
We focus on the problem of long-range dynamic replanning for off-road autonomous vehicles, where a robot plans paths through a previously unobserved environment while continuously receiving noisy local observations. An effective approach for planning under sensing uncertainty is determinization, where one converts a stochastic world into a deterministic one and plans under this simplification. This makes the planning problem tractable, but the cost of following the planned path in the real world may be different than in the determinized world. This causes collisions if the determinized world optimistically ignores obstacles, or causes unnecessarily long routes if the determinized world pessimistically imagines more obstacles. We aim to be robust to uncertainty over potential worlds while still achieving the efficiency benefits of determinization. We evaluate algorithms for dynamic replanning on a large real-world dataset of challenging long-range planning problems from the DARPA RACER program. Our method, Dynamic Replanning via Evaluating and Aggregating Multiple Samples (DREAMS), outperforms other determinization-based approaches in terms of combined traversal time and collision cost. https://sites.google.com/cs.washington.edu/dreams/
A New Random Forest Ensemble of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Decision Trees
Ren, Yingtao, Zhu, Xiaomin, Bai, Kaiyuan, Zhang, Runtong
Classification is essential to the applications in the field of data mining, artificial intelligence, and fault detection. There exists a strong need in developing accurate, suitable, and efficient classification methods and algorithms with broad applicability. Random forest is a general algorithm that is often used for classification under complex conditions. Although it has been widely adopted, its combination with diverse fuzzy theory is still worth exploring. In this paper, we propose the intuitionistic fuzzy random forest (IFRF), a new random forest ensemble of intuitionistic fuzzy decision trees (IFDT). Such trees in forest use intuitionistic fuzzy information gain to select features and consider hesitation in information transmission. The proposed method enjoys the power of the randomness from bootstrapped sampling and feature selection, the flexibility of fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets, and the robustness of multiple classifier systems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the IFRF has competitative and superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art fuzzy and ensemble algorithms. IFDT is more suitable for ensemble learning with outstanding classification accuracy. This study is the first to propose a random forest ensemble based on the intuitionistic fuzzy theory.
Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling for Denoising Diffusion Priors
Janati, Yazid, Durmus, Alain, Moulines, Eric, Olsson, Jimmy
Interest in the use of Denoising Diffusion Models (DDM) as priors for solving inverse Bayesian problems has recently increased significantly. However, sampling from the resulting posterior distribution poses a challenge. To solve this problem, previous works have proposed approximations to bias the drift term of the diffusion. In this work, we take a different approach and utilize the specific structure of the DDM prior to define a set of intermediate and simpler posterior sampling problems, resulting in a lower approximation error compared to previous methods. We empirically demonstrate the reconstruction capability of our method for general linear inverse problems using synthetic examples and various image restoration tasks.
Prior-dependent analysis of posterior sampling reinforcement learning with function approximation
This work advances randomized exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) with function approximation modeled by linear mixture MDPs. We establish the first prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound for RL with function approximation; and refine the Bayesian regret analysis for posterior sampling reinforcement learning (PSRL), presenting an upper bound of ${\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{H^3 T \log T})$, where $d$ represents the dimensionality of the transition kernel, $H$ the planning horizon, and $T$ the total number of interactions. This signifies a methodological enhancement by optimizing the $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\log T})$ factor over the previous benchmark (Osband and Van Roy, 2014) specified to linear mixture MDPs. Our approach, leveraging a value-targeted model learning perspective, introduces a decoupling argument and a variance reduction technique, moving beyond traditional analyses reliant on confidence sets and concentration inequalities to formalize Bayesian regret bounds more effectively.
Machine learning-based system reliability analysis with Gaussian Process Regression
Zhou, Lisang, Luo, Ziqian, Pan, Xueting
Machine learning-based reliability analysis methods have shown great advancements for their computational efficiency and accuracy. Recently, many efficient learning strategies have been proposed to enhance the computational performance. However, few of them explores the theoretical optimal learning strategy. In this article, we propose several theorems that facilitates such exploration. Specifically, cases that considering and neglecting the correlations among the candidate design samples are well elaborated. Moreover, we prove that the well-known U learning function can be reformulated to the optimal learning function for the case neglecting the Kriging correlation. In addition, the theoretical optimal learning strategy for sequential multiple training samples enrichment is also mathematically explored through the Bayesian estimate with the corresponding lost functions. Simulation results show that the optimal learning strategy considering the Kriging correlation works better than that neglecting the Kriging correlation and other state-of-the art learning functions from the literatures in terms of the reduction of number of evaluations of performance function. However, the implementation needs to investigate very large computational resource.
Probabilistic World Modeling with Asymmetric Distance Measure
Representation learning is a fundamental task in machine learning, aiming at uncovering structures from data to facilitate subsequent tasks. However, what is a good representation for planning and reasoning in a stochastic world remains an open problem. In this work, we posit that learning a distance function is essential to allow planning and reasoning in the representation space. We show that a geometric abstraction of the probabilistic world dynamics can be embedded into the representation space through asymmetric contrastive learning. Unlike previous approaches that focus on learning mutual similarity or compatibility measures, we instead learn an asymmetric similarity function that reflects the state reachability and allows multi-way probabilistic inference. Moreover, by conditioning on a common reference state (e.g. the observer's current state), the learned representation space allows us to discover the geometrically salient states that only a handful of paths can lead through. These states can naturally serve as subgoals to break down long-horizon planning tasks. We evaluate our method in gridworld environments with various layouts and demonstrate its effectiveness in discovering the subgoals.
Identifying the Attractors of Gene Regulatory Networks from Expression Data under Uncertainty: An Interpretable Approach
In systems biology, attractor landscape analysis of gene regulatory networks is recognized as a powerful computational tool for studying various cellular states from proliferation and differentiation to senescence and apoptosis. Therefore, accurate identification of attractors plays a critical role in determination of the cell fates. On the other hand, in a real biological circuit, genetic/epigenetic alterations as well as varying environmental factors drastically take effect on the location, characteristics, and even the number of attractors. The central question is: Given a temporal gene expression profile of a real gene regulatory network, how can the attractors be robustly identified in the presence of huge amount of uncertainty? This paper addresses this question using a novel approach based on Zadeh Computing with Words. The proposed scheme could effectively identify the attractors from temporal gene expression data in terms of both fuzzy logic-based and linguistic descriptions which are simply interpretable by human experts. Therefore, this method can be considered as an effective step towards interpretable artificial intelligence. Without loss of generality, genetic toggle switch is considered as the case study. The nonlinear dynamics of this benchmark gene regulatory network is computationally modeled by the notion of uncertain stochastic differential equations. The results of in-silico study demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method.
Energy-Based Models with Applications to Speech and Language Processing
Energy-Based Models (EBMs) are an important class of probabilistic models, also known as random fields and undirected graphical models. EBMs are un-normalized and thus radically different from other popular self-normalized probabilistic models such as hidden Markov models (HMMs), autoregressive models, generative adversarial nets (GANs) and variational auto-encoders (VAEs). Over the past years, EBMs have attracted increasing interest not only from the core machine learning community, but also from application domains such as speech, vision, natural language processing (NLP) and so on, due to significant theoretical and algorithmic progress. The sequential nature of speech and language also presents special challenges and needs a different treatment from processing fix-dimensional data (e.g., images). Therefore, the purpose of this monograph is to present a systematic introduction to energy-based models, including both algorithmic progress and applications in speech and language processing. First, the basics of EBMs are introduced, including classic models, recent models parameterized by neural networks, sampling methods, and various learning methods from the classic learning algorithms to the most advanced ones. Then, the application of EBMs in three different scenarios is presented, i.e., for modeling marginal, conditional and joint distributions, respectively. 1) EBMs for sequential data with applications in language modeling, where the main focus is on the marginal distribution of a sequence itself; 2) EBMs for modeling conditional distributions of target sequences given observation sequences, with applications in speech recognition, sequence labeling and text generation; 3) EBMs for modeling joint distributions of both sequences of observations and targets, and their applications in semi-supervised learning and calibrated natural language understanding.
Speech-driven Personalized Gesture Synthetics: Harnessing Automatic Fuzzy Feature Inference
Zhang, Fan, Wang, Zhaohan, Lyu, Xin, Zhao, Siyuan, Li, Mengjian, Geng, Weidong, Ji, Naye, Du, Hui, Gao, Fuxing, Wu, Hao, Li, Shunman
Speech-driven gesture generation is an emerging field within virtual human creation. However, a significant challenge lies in accurately determining and processing the multitude of input features (such as acoustic, semantic, emotional, personality, and even subtle unknown features). Traditional approaches, reliant on various explicit feature inputs and complex multimodal processing, constrain the expressiveness of resulting gestures and limit their applicability. To address these challenges, we present Persona-Gestor, a novel end-to-end generative model designed to generate highly personalized 3D full-body gestures solely relying on raw speech audio. The model combines a fuzzy feature extractor and a non-autoregressive Adaptive Layer Normalization (AdaLN) transformer diffusion architecture. The fuzzy feature extractor harnesses a fuzzy inference strategy that automatically infers implicit, continuous fuzzy features. These fuzzy features, represented as a unified latent feature, are fed into the AdaLN transformer. The AdaLN transformer introduces a conditional mechanism that applies a uniform function across all tokens, thereby effectively modeling the correlation between the fuzzy features and the gesture sequence. This module ensures a high level of gesture-speech synchronization while preserving naturalness. Finally, we employ the diffusion model to train and infer various gestures. Extensive subjective and objective evaluations on the Trinity, ZEGGS, and BEAT datasets confirm our model's superior performance to the current state-of-the-art approaches. Persona-Gestor improves the system's usability and generalization capabilities, setting a new benchmark in speech-driven gesture synthesis and broadening the horizon for virtual human technology. Supplementary videos and code can be accessed at https://zf223669.github.io/Diffmotion-v2-website/
Neural-Kernel Conditional Mean Embeddings
Shimizu, Eiki, Fukumizu, Kenji, Sejdinovic, Dino
Kernel conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) offer a powerful framework for representing conditional distribution, but they often face scalability and expressiveness challenges. In this work, we propose a new method that effectively combines the strengths of deep learning with CMEs in order to address these challenges. Specifically, our approach leverages the end-to-end neural network (NN) optimization framework using a kernel-based objective. This design circumvents the computationally expensive Gram matrix inversion required by current CME methods. To further enhance performance, we provide efficient strategies to optimize the remaining kernel hyperparameters. In conditional density estimation tasks, our NN-CME hybrid achieves competitive performance and often surpasses existing deep learning-based methods. Lastly, we showcase its remarkable versatility by seamlessly integrating it into reinforcement learning (RL) contexts. Building on Q-learning, our approach naturally leads to a new variant of distributional RL methods, which demonstrates consistent effectiveness across different environments.