Local causal discovery is of great practical significance, as there are often situations where the discovery of the global causal structure is unnecessary, and the interest lies solely on a single target variable. Most existing local methods utilize conditional independence relations, providing only a partially directed graph, and assume acyclicity for the ground-truth structure, even though real-world scenarios often involve cycles like feedback mechanisms. In this work, we present a general, unified local causal discovery method with linear non-Gaussian models, whether they are cyclic or acyclic. We extend the application of independent component analysis from the global context to independent subspace analysis, enabling the exact identification of the equivalent local directed structures and causal strengths from the Markov blanket of the target variable. We also propose an alternative regression-based method in the particular acyclic scenarios. Our identifiability results are empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Diabetes, a pervasive and enduring health challenge, imposes significant global implications on health, financial healthcare systems, and societal well-being. This study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of various structural learning algorithms to discern causal pathways amongst potential risk factors influencing diabetes progression. The methodology involves the application of these algorithms to relevant diabetes data, followed by the conversion of their output graphs into Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), enabling predictive analysis and the evaluation of discrepancies in the effect of hypothetical interventions within our context-specific case study. This study highlights the substantial impact of algorithm selection on intervention outcomes. To consolidate insights from diverse algorithms, we employ a model-averaging technique that helps us obtain a unique causal model for diabetes derived from a varied set of structural learning algorithms. We also investigate how each of those individual graphs, as well as the average graph, compare to the structures elicited by a domain expert who categorised graph edges into high confidence, moderate, and low confidence types, leading into three individual graphs corresponding to the three levels of confidence. The resulting causal model and data are made available online, and serve as a valuable resource and a guide for informed decision-making by healthcare practitioners, offering a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between relevant risk factors and the effect of hypothetical interventions. Therefore, this research not only contributes to the academic discussion on diabetes, but also provides practical guidance for healthcare professionals in developing efficient intervention and risk management strategies.

Artificial intelligence has recently experienced remarkable advances, fueled by large models, vast datasets, accelerated hardware, and, last but not least, the transformative power of differentiable programming. This new programming paradigm enables end-to-end differentiation of complex computer programs (including those with control flows and data structures), making gradient-based optimization of program parameters possible. As an emerging paradigm, differentiable programming builds upon several areas of computer science and applied mathematics, including automatic differentiation, graphical models, optimization and statistics. This book presents a comprehensive review of the fundamental concepts useful for differentiable programming. We adopt two main perspectives, that of optimization and that of probability, with clear analogies between the two. Differentiable programming is not merely the differentiation of programs, but also the thoughtful design of programs intended for differentiation. By making programs differentiable, we inherently introduce probability distributions over their execution, providing a means to quantify the uncertainty associated with program outputs.

Estimating the individuals' potential response to varying treatment doses is crucial for decision-making in areas such as precision medicine and management science. Most recent studies predict counterfactual outcomes by learning a covariate representation that is independent of the treatment variable. However, such independence constraints neglect much of the covariate information that is useful for counterfactual prediction, especially when the treatment variables are continuous. To tackle the above issue, in this paper, we first theoretically demonstrate the importance of the balancing and prognostic representations for unbiased estimation of the heterogeneous dose-response curves, that is, the learned representations are constrained to satisfy the conditional independence between the covariates and both of the treatment variables and the potential responses. Based on this, we propose a novel Contrastive balancing Representation learning Network using a partial distance measure, called CRNet, for estimating the heterogeneous dose-response curves without losing the continuity of treatments. Extensive experiments are conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrating that our proposal significantly outperforms previous methods.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are prominent tractable probabilistic models, allowing for a range of exact inferences. This paper focuses on the main algorithm for training PCs, LearnSPN, a gold standard due to its efficiency, performance, and ease of use, in particular for tabular data. We show that LearnSPN is a greedy likelihood maximizer under mild assumptions. While inferences in PCs may use the entire circuit structure for processing queries, LearnSPN applies a hard method for learning them, propagating at each sum node a data point through one and only one of the children/edges as in a hard clustering process. We propose a new learning procedure named SoftLearn, that induces a PC using a soft clustering process. We investigate the effect of this learning-inference compatibility in PCs. Our experiments show that SoftLearn outperforms LearnSPN in many situations, yielding better likelihoods and arguably better samples. We also analyze comparable tractable models to highlight the differences between soft/hard learning and model querying.

Robotic mapping with Bayesian Kernel Inference (BKI) has shown promise in creating semantic maps by effectively leveraging local spatial information. However, existing semantic mapping methods face challenges in constructing reliable maps in unstructured outdoor scenarios due to unreliable semantic predictions. To address this issue, we propose an evidential semantic mapping, which can enhance reliability in perceptually challenging off-road environments. We integrate Evidential Deep Learning into the semantic segmentation network to obtain the uncertainty estimate of semantic prediction. Subsequently, this semantic uncertainty is incorporated into an uncertainty-aware BKI, tailored to prioritize more confident semantic predictions when accumulating semantic information. By adaptively handling semantic uncertainties, the proposed framework constructs robust representations of the surroundings even in previously unseen environments. Comprehensive experiments across various off-road datasets demonstrate that our framework enhances accuracy and robustness, consistently outperforming existing methods in scenes with high perceptual uncertainties.

It is widely accepted that biased data leads to biased and thus potentially unfair models. Therefore, several measures for bias in data and model predictions have been proposed, as well as bias mitigation techniques whose aim is to learn models that are fair by design. Despite the myriad of mitigation techniques developed in the past decade, however, it is still poorly understood under what circumstances which methods work. Recently, Wick et al. showed, with experiments on synthetic data, that there exist situations in which bias mitigation techniques lead to more accurate models when measured on unbiased data. Nevertheless, in the absence of a thorough mathematical analysis, it remains unclear which techniques are effective under what circumstances. We propose to address this problem by establishing relationships between the type of bias and the effectiveness of a mitigation technique, where we categorize the mitigation techniques by the bias measure they optimize. In this paper we illustrate this principle for label and selection bias on the one hand, and demographic parity and ``We're All Equal'' on the other hand. Our theoretical analysis allows to explain the results of Wick et al. and we also show that there are situations where minimizing fairness measures does not result in the fairest possible distribution.

While short-form videos head to reshape the entire social media landscape, experts are exceedingly worried about their depressive impacts on viewers, as evidenced by medical studies. To prevent widespread consequences, platforms are eager to predict these videos' impact on viewers' mental health. Subsequently, they can take intervention measures, such as revising recommendation algorithms and displaying viewer discretion. Nevertheless, applicable predictive methods lack relevance to well-established medical knowledge, which outlines clinically proven external and environmental factors of depression. To account for such medical knowledge, we resort to an emergent methodological discipline, seeded Neural Topic Models (NTMs). However, existing seeded NTMs suffer from the limitations of single-origin topics, unknown topic sources, unclear seed supervision, and suboptimal convergence. To address those challenges, we develop a novel Knowledge-guided Multimodal NTM to predict a short-form video's depressive impact on viewers. Extensive empirical analyses using TikTok and Douyin datasets prove that our method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks. Our method also discovers medically relevant topics from videos that are linked to depressive impact. We contribute to IS with a novel video analytics method that is generalizable to other video classification problems. Practically, our method can help platforms understand videos' mental impacts, thus adjusting recommendations and video topic disclosure.

Bayesian approaches for training deep neural networks (BNNs) have received significant interest and have been effectively utilized in a wide range of applications. There have been several studies on the properties of posterior concentrations of BNNs. However, most of these studies only demonstrate results in BNN models with sparse or heavy-tailed priors. Surprisingly, no theoretical results currently exist for BNNs using Gaussian priors, which are the most commonly used one. The lack of theory arises from the absence of approximation results of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) that are non-sparse and have bounded parameters. In this paper, we present a new approximation theory for non-sparse DNNs with bounded parameters. Additionally, based on the approximation theory, we show that BNNs with non-sparse general priors can achieve near-minimax optimal posterior concentration rates to the true model.

With the advent of the AI Act and other regulations, there is now an urgent need for algorithms that repair unfairness in training data. In this paper, we define fairness in terms of conditional independence between protected attributes ($S$) and features ($X$), given unprotected attributes ($U$). We address the important setting in which torrents of archival data need to be repaired, using only a small proportion of these data, which are $S|U$-labelled (the research data). We use the latter to design optimal transport (OT)-based repair plans on interpolated supports. This allows {\em off-sample}, labelled, archival data to be repaired, subject to stationarity assumptions. It also significantly reduces the size of the supports of the OT plans, with correspondingly large savings in the cost of their design and of their {\em sequential\/} application to the off-sample data. We provide detailed experimental results with simulated and benchmark real data (the Adult data set). Our performance figures demonstrate effective repair -- in the sense of quenching conditional dependence -- of large quantities of off-sample, labelled (archival) data.