In this paper, we tackle the task of generating Prediction Intervals (PIs) in high-risk scenarios by proposing enhancements for learning Interval Type-2 (IT2) Fuzzy Logic Systems (FLSs) to address their learning challenges. In this context, we first provide extra design flexibility to the Karnik-Mendel (KM) and Nie-Tan (NT) center of sets calculation methods to increase their flexibility for generating PIs. These enhancements increase the flexibility of KM in the defuzzification stage while the NT in the fuzzification stage. To address the large-scale learning challenge, we transform the IT2-FLS's constraint learning problem into an unconstrained form via parameterization tricks, enabling the direct application of deep learning optimizers. To address the curse of dimensionality issue, we expand the High-Dimensional Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (HTSK) method proposed for type-1 FLS to IT2-FLSs, resulting in the HTSK2 approach. Additionally, we introduce a framework to learn the enhanced IT2-FLS with a dual focus, aiming for high precision and PI generation. Through exhaustive statistical results, we reveal that HTSK2 effectively addresses the dimensionality challenge, while the enhanced KM and NT methods improved learning and enhanced uncertainty quantification performances of IT2-FLSs.

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing approaches suffer from synchronisation overhead in this setting. In this paper, we exploit the formulation of data assimilation as a Bayesian inference problem and apply a message-passing algorithm to solve the spatial inference problem. Since message passing is inherently based on local computations, this approach lends itself to parallel and distributed computation. In combination with a GPU-accelerated implementation, we can scale the algorithm to very large grid sizes while retaining good accuracy and compute and memory requirements.

The practical utility of agent-based models in decision-making relies on their capacity to accurately replicate populations while seamlessly integrating real-world data streams. Yet, the incorporation of such data poses significant challenges due to privacy concerns. To address this issue, we introduce a paradigm for private agent-based modeling wherein the simulation, calibration, and analysis of agent-based models can be achieved without centralizing the agents attributes or interactions. The key insight is to leverage techniques from secure multi-party computation to design protocols for decentralized computation in agent-based models. This ensures the confidentiality of the simulated agents without compromising on simulation accuracy. We showcase our protocols on a case study with an epidemiological simulation comprising over 150,000 agents. We believe this is a critical step towards deploying agent-based models to real-world applications.

General Type-2 (GT2) Fuzzy Logic Systems (FLSs) are perfect candidates to quantify uncertainty, which is crucial for informed decisions in high-risk tasks, as they are powerful tools in representing uncertainty. In this paper, we travel back in time to provide a new look at GT2-FLSs by adopting Zadeh's (Z) GT2 Fuzzy Set (FS) definition, intending to learn GT2-FLSs that are capable of achieving reliable High-Quality Prediction Intervals (HQ-PI) alongside precision. By integrating Z-GT2-FS with the \(\alpha\)-plane representation, we show that the design flexibility of GT2-FLS is increased as it takes away the dependency of the secondary membership function from the primary membership function. After detailing the construction of Z-GT2-FLSs, we provide solutions to challenges while learning from high-dimensional data: the curse of dimensionality, and integrating Deep Learning (DL) optimizers. We develop a DL framework for learning dual-focused Z-GT2-FLSs with high performances. Our study includes statistical analyses, highlighting that the Z-GT2-FLS not only exhibits high-precision performance but also produces HQ-PIs in comparison to its GT2 and IT2 fuzzy counterparts which have more learnable parameters. The results show that the Z-GT2-FLS has a huge potential in uncertainty quantification.

Type-1 and Interval Type-2 (IT2) Fuzzy Logic Systems (FLS) excel in handling uncertainty alongside their parsimonious rule-based structure. Yet, in learning large-scale data challenges arise, such as the curse of dimensionality and training complexity of FLSs. The complexity is due mainly to the constraints to be satisfied as the learnable parameters define FSs and the complexity of the center of the sets calculation method, especially of IT2-FLSs. This paper explicitly focuses on the learning problem of FLSs and presents a computationally efficient learning method embedded within the realm of Deep Learning (DL). The proposed method tackles the learning challenges of FLSs by presenting computationally efficient implementations of FLSs, thereby minimizing training time while leveraging mini-batched DL optimizers and automatic differentiation provided within the DL frameworks. We illustrate the efficiency of the DL framework for FLSs on benchmark datasets.

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which incorporates both model-based and value-based incarnations. In particular, LOOP features a novel construction of confidence sets and a low-switching policy updating scheme, which are tailored to the average-reward and function approximation setting. Moreover, for AMDPs, we propose a novel complexity measure -- average-reward generalized eluder coefficient (AGEC) -- which captures the challenge of exploration in AMDPs with general function approximation. Such a complexity measure encompasses almost all previously known tractable AMDP models, such as linear AMDPs and linear mixture AMDPs, and also includes newly identified cases such as kernel AMDPs and AMDPs with Bellman eluder dimensions. Using AGEC, we prove that LOOP achieves a sublinear $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathrm{poly}(d, \mathrm{sp}(V^*)) \sqrt{T\beta} )$ regret, where $d$ and $\beta$ correspond to AGEC and log-covering number of the hypothesis class respectively, $\mathrm{sp}(V^*)$ is the span of the optimal state bias function, $T$ denotes the number of steps, and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} (\cdot) $ omits logarithmic factors. When specialized to concrete AMDP models, our regret bounds are comparable to those established by the existing algorithms designed specifically for these special cases. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive theoretical framework capable of handling nearly all AMDPs.

One of the main challenges in surrogate modeling is the limited availability of data due to resource constraints associated with computationally expensive simulations. Multi-fidelity methods provide a solution by chaining models in a hierarchy with increasing fidelity, associated with lower error, but increasing cost. In this paper, we compare different multi-fidelity methods employed in constructing Gaussian process surrogates for regression. Non-linear autoregressive methods in the existing literature are primarily confined to two-fidelity models, and we extend these methods to handle more than two levels of fidelity. Additionally, we propose enhancements for an existing method incorporating delay terms by introducing a structured kernel. We demonstrate the performance of these methods across various academic and real-world scenarios. Our findings reveal that multi-fidelity methods generally have a smaller prediction error for the same computational cost as compared to the single-fidelity method, although their effectiveness varies across different scenarios.

Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is very popular for solving low-dimensional expensive optimization problems. Extending Bayesian optimization to high dimension is a meaningful but challenging task. One of the major challenges is that it is difficult to find good infill solutions as the acquisition functions are also high-dimensional. In this work, we propose the expected coordinate improvement (ECI) criterion for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization. The proposed ECI criterion measures the potential improvement we can get by moving the current best solution along one coordinate. The proposed approach selects the coordinate with the highest ECI value to refine in each iteration and covers all the coordinates gradually by iterating over the coordinates. The greatest advantage of the proposed ECI-BO (expected coordinate improvement based Bayesian optimization) algorithm over the standard BO algorithm is that the infill selection problem of the proposed algorithm is always a one-dimensional problem thus can be easily solved. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm can achieve significantly better results than the standard BO algorithm and competitive results when compared with five state-of-the-art high-dimensional BOs. This work provides a simple but efficient approach for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization.

Language models (LMs) trained on vast quantities of text data can acquire sophisticated skills such as generating summaries, answering questions or generating code. However, they also manifest behaviors that violate human preferences, e.g., they can generate offensive content, falsehoods or perpetuate social biases. In this thesis, I explore several approaches to aligning LMs with human preferences. First, I argue that aligning LMs can be seen as Bayesian inference: conditioning a prior (base, pretrained LM) on evidence about human preferences (Chapter 2). Conditioning on human preferences can be implemented in numerous ways. In Chapter 3, I investigate the relation between two approaches to finetuning pretrained LMs using feedback given by a scoring function: reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and distribution matching. I show that RLHF can be seen as a special case of distribution matching but distributional matching is strictly more general. In chapter 4, I show how to extend the distribution matching to conditional language models. Finally, in chapter 5 I explore a different root: conditioning an LM on human preferences already during pretraining. I show that involving human feedback from the very start tends to be more effective than using it only during supervised finetuning. Overall, these results highlight the room for alignment techniques different from and complementary to RLHF.

We study the problem of learning directed acyclic graphs from continuous observational data, generated according to a linear Gaussian structural equation model. State-of-the-art structure learning methods for this setting have at least one of the following shortcomings: i) they cannot provide optimality guarantees and can suffer from learning sub-optimal models; ii) they rely on the stringent assumption that the noise is homoscedastic, and hence the underlying model is fully identifiable. We overcome these shortcomings and develop a computationally efficient mixed-integer programming framework for learning medium-sized problems that accounts for arbitrary heteroscedastic noise. We present an early stopping criterion under which we can terminate the branch-and-bound procedure to achieve an asymptotically optimal solution and establish the consistency of this approximate solution. In addition, we show via numerical experiments that our method outperforms three state-of-the-art algorithms and is robust to noise heteroscedasticity, whereas the performance of the competing methods deteriorates under strong violations of the identifiability assumption. The software implementation of our method is available as the Python package \emph{micodag}.