Uncertainty
Generation of Granular-Balls for Clustering Based on the Principle of Justifiable Granularity
Jia, Zihang, Zhang, Zhen, Pedrycz, Witold
Efficient and robust data clustering remains a challenging task in the field of data analysis. Recent efforts have explored the integration of granular-ball (GB) computing with clustering algorithms to address this challenge, yielding promising results. However, existing methods for generating GBs often rely on single indicators to measure GB quality and employ threshold-based or greedy strategies, potentially leading to GBs that do not accurately capture the underlying data distribution. To address these limitations, this article introduces a novel GB generation method. The originality of this method lies in leveraging the principle of justifiable granularity to measure the quality of a GB for clustering tasks. To be precise, we define the coverage and specificity of a GB and introduce a comprehensive measure for assessing GB quality. Utilizing this quality measure, the method incorporates a binary tree pruning-based strategy and an anomaly detection method to determine the best combination of sub-GBs for each GB and identify abnormal GBs, respectively. Compared to previous GB generation methods, the new method maximizes the overall quality of generated GBs while ensuring alignment with the data distribution, thereby enhancing the rationality of the generated GBs. Experimental results obtained from both synthetic and publicly available datasets underscore the effectiveness of the proposed GB generation method, showcasing improvements in clustering accuracy and normalized mutual information.
Adversarial Consistency and the Uniqueness of the Adversarial Bayes Classifier
Minimizing an adversarial surrogate risk is a common technique for learning robust classifiers. Prior work showed that convex surrogate losses are not statistically consistent in the adversarial context-- or in other words, a minimizing sequence of the adversarial surrogate risk will not necessarily minimize the adversarial classification error. We connect the consistency of adversarial surrogate losses to properties of minimizers to the adversarial classification risk, known as adversarial Bayes classifiers. Specifically, under reasonable distributional assumptions, a convex surrogate loss is statistically consistent for adversarial learning iff the adversarial Bayes classifier satisfies a certain notion of uniqueness.
vMFER: Von Mises-Fisher Experience Resampling Based on Uncertainty of Gradient Directions for Policy Improvement
Zhu, Yiwen, Liu, Jinyi, Wei, Wenya, Fu, Qianyi, Hu, Yujing, Fang, Zhou, An, Bo, Hao, Jianye, Lv, Tangjie, Fan, Changjie
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a widely employed technique in decision-making problems, encompassing two fundamental operations -- policy evaluation and policy improvement. Enhancing learning efficiency remains a key challenge in RL, with many efforts focused on using ensemble critics to boost policy evaluation efficiency. However, when using multiple critics, the actor in the policy improvement process can obtain different gradients. Previous studies have combined these gradients without considering their disagreements. Therefore, optimizing the policy improvement process is crucial to enhance learning efficiency. This study focuses on investigating the impact of gradient disagreements caused by ensemble critics on policy improvement. We introduce the concept of uncertainty of gradient directions as a means to measure the disagreement among gradients utilized in the policy improvement process. Through measuring the disagreement among gradients, we find that transitions with lower uncertainty of gradient directions are more reliable in the policy improvement process. Building on this analysis, we propose a method called von Mises-Fisher Experience Resampling (vMFER), which optimizes the policy improvement process by resampling transitions and assigning higher confidence to transitions with lower uncertainty of gradient directions. Our experiments demonstrate that vMFER significantly outperforms the benchmark and is particularly well-suited for ensemble structures in RL.
Weakly-supervised causal discovery based on fuzzy knowledge and complex data complementarity
Li, Wenrui, Zhang, Wei, Zhang, Qinghao, Zhang, Xuegong, Wang, Xiaowo
Causal discovery based on observational data is important for deciphering the causal mechanism behind complex systems. However, the effectiveness of existing causal discovery methods is limited due to inferior prior knowledge, domain inconsistencies, and the challenges of high-dimensional datasets with small sample sizes. To address this gap, we propose a novel weakly-supervised fuzzy knowledge and data co-driven causal discovery method named KEEL. KEEL adopts a fuzzy causal knowledge schema to encapsulate diverse types of fuzzy knowledge, and forms corresponding weakened constraints. This schema not only lessens the dependency on expertise but also allows various types of limited and error-prone fuzzy knowledge to guide causal discovery. It can enhance the generalization and robustness of causal discovery, especially in high-dimensional and small-sample scenarios. In addition, we integrate the extended linear causal model (ELCM) into KEEL for dealing with the multi-distribution and incomplete data. Extensive experiments with different datasets demonstrate the superiority of KEEL over several state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, robustness and computational efficiency. For causal discovery in real protein signal transduction processes, KEEL outperforms the benchmark method with limited data. In summary, KEEL is effective to tackle the causal discovery tasks with higher accuracy while alleviating the requirement for extensive domain expertise.
Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects
Sojitra, Ravi B., Syrgkanis, Vasilis
We consider Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) with One Sided Noncompliance that arise in applications such as digital recommendations and adaptive medical trials. These are settings where decision makers encourage individuals to take treatments over time, but adapt encouragements based on previous encouragements, treatments, states, and outcomes. Importantly, individuals may not comply with encouragements based on unobserved confounders. For settings with binary treatments and encouragements, we provide nonparametric identification, estimation, and inference for Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs), which are expected values of multiple time period treatment contrasts for the respective complier subpopulations. Under standard assumptions in the Instrumental Variable and DTR literature, we show that one can identify Dynamic LATEs that correspond to treating at single time steps. Under an additional cross-period effect-compliance independence assumption, which is satisfied in Staggered Adoption settings and a generalization of them, which we define as Staggered Compliance settings, we identify Dynamic LATEs for treating in multiple time periods.
Accelerating the Evolution of Personalized Automated Lane Change through Lesson Learning
Hu, Jia, Lei, Mingyue, Li, Duo, Li, Zhenning, Jaehyun, null, So, null, Wang, Haoran
Personalization is crucial for the widespread adoption of advanced driver assistance system. To match up with each user's preference, the online evolution capability is a must. However, conventional evolution methods learn from naturalistic driving data, which requires a lot computing power and cannot be applied online. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a lesson learning approach: learning from driver's takeover interventions. By leveraging online takeover data, the driving zone is generated to ensure perceived safety using Gaussian discriminant analysis. Real-time corrections to trajectory planning rewards are enacted through apprenticeship learning. Guided by the objective of optimizing rewards within the constraints of the driving zone, this approach employs model predictive control for trajectory planning. This lesson learning framework is highlighted for its faster evolution capability, adeptness at experience accumulating, assurance of perceived safety, and computational efficiency. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed system consistently achieves a successful customization without further takeover interventions. Accumulated experience yields a 24% enhancement in evolution efficiency. The average number of learning iterations is only 13.8. The average computation time is 0.08 seconds.
A Framework for Strategic Discovery of Credible Neural Network Surrogate Models under Uncertainty
Singh, Pratyush Kumar, Farrell-Maupin, Kathryn A., Faghihi, Danial
The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. This study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for the ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.
SPIN: Simultaneous Perception, Interaction and Navigation
Uppal, Shagun, Agarwal, Ananye, Xiong, Haoyu, Shaw, Kenneth, Pathak, Deepak
While there has been remarkable progress recently in the fields of manipulation and locomotion, mobile manipulation remains a long-standing challenge. Compared to locomotion or static manipulation, a mobile system must make a diverse range of long-horizon tasks feasible in unstructured and dynamic environments. While the applications are broad and interesting, there are a plethora of challenges in developing these systems such as coordination between the base and arm, reliance on onboard perception for perceiving and interacting with the environment, and most importantly, simultaneously integrating all these parts together. Prior works approach the problem using disentangled modular skills for mobility and manipulation that are trivially tied together. This causes several limitations such as compounding errors, delays in decision-making, and no whole-body coordination. In this work, we present a reactive mobile manipulation framework that uses an active visual system to consciously perceive and react to its environment. Similar to how humans leverage whole-body and hand-eye coordination, we develop a mobile manipulator that exploits its ability to move and see, more specifically -- to move in order to see and to see in order to move. This allows it to not only move around and interact with its environment but also, choose "when" to perceive "what" using an active visual system. We observe that such an agent learns to navigate around complex cluttered scenarios while displaying agile whole-body coordination using only ego-vision without needing to create environment maps. Results visualizations and videos at https://spin-robot.github.io/
Dynamic Backtracking in GFlowNets: Enhancing Decision Steps with Reward-Dependent Adjustment Mechanisms
Guo, Shuai, Chu, Jielei, Zhu, Lei, Li, Zhaoyu, Li, Tianrui
Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets or GFNs) are probabilistic models predicated on Markov flows, and they employ specific amortization algorithms to learn stochastic policies that generate compositional substances including biomolecules, chemical materials, etc. With a strong ability to generate high-performance biochemical molecules, GFNs accelerate the discovery of scientific substances, effectively overcoming the time-consuming, labor-intensive, and costly shortcomings of conventional material discovery methods. However, previous studies rarely focus on accumulating exploratory experience by adjusting generative structures, which leads to disorientation in complex sampling spaces. Efforts to address this issue, such as LS-GFN, are limited to local greedy searches and lack broader global adjustments. This paper introduces a novel variant of GFNs, the Dynamic Backtracking GFN (DB-GFN), which improves the adaptability of decision-making steps through a reward-based dynamic backtracking mechanism. DB-GFN allows backtracking during the network construction process according to the current state's reward value, thereby correcting disadvantageous decisions and exploring alternative pathways during the exploration process. When applied to generative tasks involving biochemical molecules and genetic material sequences, DB-GFN outperforms GFN models such as LS-GFN and GTB, as well as traditional reinforcement learning methods, in sample quality, sample exploration quantity, and training convergence speed. Additionally, owing to its orthogonal nature, DB-GFN shows great potential in future improvements of GFNs, and it can be integrated with other strategies to achieve higher search performance.
Playing Games with your PET: Extending the Partial Exploration Tool to Stochastic Games
Meggendorfer, Tobias, Weininger, Maximilian
We present version 2.0 of the Partial Exploration Tool (PET), a tool for verification of probabilistic systems. We extend the previous version by adding support for stochastic games, based on a recent unified framework for sound value iteration algorithms. Thereby, PET2 is the first tool implementing a sound and efficient approach for solving stochastic games with objectives of the type reachability/safety and mean payoff. We complement this approach by developing and implementing a partial-exploration based variant for all three objectives. Our experimental evaluation shows that PET2 offers the most efficient partial-exploration based algorithm and is the most viable tool on SGs, even outperforming unsound tools.