In statistical mechanics, computing the partition function is generally difficult. An approximation method using a variational autoregressive network (VAN) has been proposed recently. This approach offers the advantage of directly calculating the generation probabilities while obtaining a significantly large number of samples. The present study introduces a novel approximation method that employs samples derived from quantum annealing machines in conjunction with VAN, which are empirically assumed to adhere to the Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution. When applied to the finite-size Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, the proposed method demonstrates enhanced accuracy compared to the traditional VAN approach and other approximate methods, such as the widely utilized naive mean field.

Range-based localization is ubiquitous: global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) power mobile phone-based navigation, and autonomous mobile robots can use range measurements from a variety of modalities including sonar, radar, and even WiFi signals. Many of these localization systems rely on fixed anchors or beacons with known positions acting as transmitters or receivers. In this work, we answer a fundamental question: given a set of positions we would like to localize, how should beacons be placed so as to minimize localization error? Specifically, we present an information theoretic method for optimally selecting an arrangement consisting of a few beacons from a large set of candidate positions. By formulating localization as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, we can cast beacon arrangement as a submodular set function maximization problem. This approach is probabilistically rigorous, simple to implement, and extremely flexible. Furthermore, we prove that the submodular structure of our problem formulation ensures that a greedy algorithm for beacon arrangement has suboptimality guarantees. We compare our method with a number of benchmarks on simulated data and release an open source Python implementation of our algorithm and experiments.

Ibeling et al. (2023). axiomatize increasingly expressive languages of causation and probability, and Mosse et al. (2024) show that reasoning (specifically the satisfiability problem) in each causal language is as difficult, from a computational complexity perspective, as reasoning in its merely probabilistic or "correlational" counterpart. Introducing a summation operator to capture common devices that appear in applications -- such as the $do$-calculus of Pearl (2009) for causal inference, which makes ample use of marginalization -- van der Zander et al. (2023) partially extend these earlier complexity results to causal and probabilistic languages with marginalization. We complete this extension, fully characterizing the complexity of probabilistic and causal reasoning with summation, demonstrating that these again remain equally difficult. Surprisingly, allowing free variables for random variable values results in a system that is undecidable, so long as the ranges of these random variables are unrestricted. We finally axiomatize these languages featuring marginalization (or more generally summation), resolving open questions posed by Ibeling et al. (2023).

We introduce the application of online learning in a Stackelberg game pertaining to a system with two learning agents in a dyadic exchange network, consisting of a supplier and retailer, specifically where the parameters of the demand function are unknown. In this game, the supplier is the first-moving leader, and must determine the optimal wholesale price of the product. Subsequently, the retailer who is the follower, must determine both the optimal procurement amount and selling price of the product. In the perfect information setting, this is known as the classical price-setting Newsvendor problem, and we prove the existence of a unique Stackelberg equilibrium when extending this to a two-player pricing game. In the framework of online learning, the parameters of the reward function for both the follower and leader must be learned, under the assumption that the follower will best respond with optimism under uncertainty. A novel algorithm based on contextual linear bandits with a measurable uncertainty set is used to provide a confidence bound on the parameters of the stochastic demand. Consequently, optimal finite time regret bounds on the Stackelberg regret, along with convergence guarantees to an approximate Stackelberg equilibrium, are provided.

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to acclerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive conditions on the accuracy of the machine learning model to facilitate more efficient hierarchical sampling. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

Enhancing the energy efficiency of buildings significantly relies on monitoring indoor ambient temperature. The potential limitations of conventional temperature measurement techniques, together with the omnipresence of smartphones, have redirected researchers'attention towards the exploration of phone-based ambient temperature estimation methods. However, existing phone-based methods face challenges such as insufficient privacy protection, difficulty in adapting models to various phones, and hurdles in obtaining enough labeled training data. In this study, we propose a distributed phone-based ambient temperature estimation system which enables collaboration among multiple phones to accurately measure the ambient temperature in different areas of an indoor space. This system also provides an efficient, cost-effective approach with a few-shot meta-learning module and an automated label generation module. It shows that with just 5 new training data points, the temperature estimation model can adapt to a new phone and reach a good performance. Moreover, the system uses crowdsourcing to generate accurate labels for all newly collected training data, significantly reducing costs. Additionally, we highlight the potential of incorporating federated learning into our system to enhance privacy protection. We believe this study can advance the practical application of phone-based ambient temperature measurement, facilitating energy-saving efforts in buildings.

Drought is a complex environmental phenomenon that affects millions of people and communities all over the globe and is too elusive to be accurately predicted. This is mostly due to the scalability and variability of the web of environmental parameters that directly/indirectly causes the onset of different categories of drought. Since the dawn of man, efforts have been made to uniquely understand the natural indicators that provide signs of likely environmental events. These indicators/signs in the form of indigenous knowledge system have been used for generations. The intricate complexity of drought has, however, always been a major stumbling block for accurate drought prediction and forecasting systems. Recently, scientists in the field of agriculture and environmental monitoring have been discussing the integration of indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge for a more accurate environmental forecasting system in order to incorporate diverse environmental information for a reliable drought forecast. Hence, in this research, the core objective is the development of a semantics-based data integration middleware that encompasses and integrates heterogeneous data models of local indigenous knowledge and sensor data towards an accurate drought forecasting system for the study areas. The local indigenous knowledge on drought gathered from the domain experts is transformed into rules to be used for performing deductive inference in conjunction with sensors data for determining the onset of drought through an automated inference generation module of the middleware. The semantic middleware incorporates, inter alia, a distributed architecture that consists of a streaming data processing engine based on Apache Kafka for real-time stream processing; a rule-based reasoning module; an ontology module for semantic representation of the knowledge bases.

In our work, we continue to explore the properties of interval-valued fuzzy soft sets, which are obtained by combining interval-valued fuzzy sets and soft sets. We introduce the concept of energy of an interval-valued fuzzy soft set, as well as pessimistic and optimistic energy, enabling us to construct an effective decision-making algorithm. Through examples, the paper demonstrates how the introduced algorithm is successfully applied to problems involving uncertainty. Additionally, we compare the introduced method with other methods dealing with similar or related issues.

Recent innovations from machine learning allow for data unfolding, without binning and including correlations across many dimensions. We describe a set of known, upgraded, and new methods for ML-based unfolding. The performance of these approaches are evaluated on the same two datasets. We find that all techniques are capable of accurately reproducing the particle-level spectra across complex observables. Given that these approaches are conceptually diverse, they offer an exciting toolkit for a new class of measurements that can probe the Standard Model with an unprecedented level of detail and may enable sensitivity to new phenomena.

Based on the principles of information theory, measure theory, and theoretical computer science, we introduce a univariate signal deconvolution method with a wide range of applications to coding theory, particularly in zero-knowledge one-way communication channels, such as in deciphering messages from unknown generating sources about which no prior knowledge is available and to which no return message can be sent. Our multidimensional space reconstruction method from an arbitrary received signal is proven to be agnostic vis-a-vis the encoding-decoding scheme, computation model, programming language, formal theory, the computable (or semi-computable) method of approximation to algorithmic complexity, and any arbitrarily chosen (computable) probability measure of the events. The method derives from the principles of an approach to Artificial General Intelligence capable of building a general-purpose model of models independent of any arbitrarily assumed prior probability distribution. We argue that this optimal and universal method of decoding non-random data has applications to signal processing, causal deconvolution, topological and geometric properties encoding, cryptography, and bio- and technosignature detection.