We show at a physics level of rigor that Bayesian inference with a fully connected neural network and a shaped nonlinearity of the form $\phi(t) = t + \psi t^3/L$ is (perturbatively) solvable in the regime where the number of training datapoints $P$ , the input dimension $N_0$, the network layer widths $N$, and the network depth $L$ are simultaneously large. Our results hold with weak assumptions on the data; the main constraint is that $P < N_0$. We provide techniques to compute the model evidence and posterior to arbitrary order in $1/N$ and at arbitrary temperature. We report the following results from the first-order computation: 1. When the width $N$ is much larger than the depth $L$ and training set size $P$, neural network Bayesian inference coincides with Bayesian inference using a kernel. The value of $\psi$ determines the curvature of a sphere, hyperbola, or plane into which the training data is implicitly embedded under the feature map. 2. When $LP/N$ is a small constant, neural network Bayesian inference departs from the kernel regime. At zero temperature, neural network Bayesian inference is equivalent to Bayesian inference using a data-dependent kernel, and $LP/N$ serves as an effective depth that controls the extent of feature learning. 3. In the restricted case of deep linear networks ($\psi=0$) and noisy data, we show a simple data model for which evidence and generalization error are optimal at zero temperature. As $LP/N$ increases, both evidence and generalization further improve, demonstrating the benefit of depth in benign overfitting.

In this work, we investigate stochastic approximation (SA) with Markovian data and nonlinear updates under constant stepsize $\alpha>0$. Existing work has primarily focused on either i.i.d. data or linear update rules. We take a new perspective and carefully examine the simultaneous presence of Markovian dependency of data and nonlinear update rules, delineating how the interplay between these two structures leads to complications that are not captured by prior techniques. By leveraging the smoothness and recurrence properties of the SA updates, we develop a fine-grained analysis of the correlation between the SA iterates $\theta_k$ and Markovian data $x_k$. This enables us to overcome the obstacles in existing analysis and establish for the first time the weak convergence of the joint process $(x_k, \theta_k)_{k\geq0}$. Furthermore, we present a precise characterization of the asymptotic bias of the SA iterates, given by $\mathbb{E}[\theta_\infty]-\theta^\ast=\alpha(b_\text{m}+b_\text{n}+b_\text{c})+O(\alpha^{3/2})$. Here, $b_\text{m}$ is associated with the Markovian noise, $b_\text{n}$ is tied to the nonlinearity, and notably, $b_\text{c}$ represents a multiplicative interaction between the Markovian noise and nonlinearity, which is absent in previous works. As a by-product of our analysis, we derive finite-time bounds on higher moment $\mathbb{E}[\|\theta_k-\theta^\ast\|^{2p}]$ and present non-asymptotic geometric convergence rates for the iterates, along with a Central Limit Theorem.

The purpose of class distribution estimation (also known as quantification) is to determine the values of the prior class probabilities in a test dataset without class label observations. A variety of methods to achieve this have been proposed in the literature, most of them based on the assumption that the distributions of the training and test data are related through prior probability shift (also known as label shift). Among these methods, Friedman's method has recently been found to perform relatively well both for binary and multi-class quantification. We discuss the properties of Friedman's method and another approach mentioned by Friedman (called DeBias method in the literature) in the context of a general framework for designing linear equation systems for class distribution estimation.

Machine learning (ML) provides algorithms to create computer programs based on data without explicitly programming them. In business process management (BPM), ML applications are used to analyse and improve processes efficiently. Three frequent examples of using ML are providing decision support through predictions, discovering accurate process models, and improving resource allocation. This paper organises the body of knowledge on ML in BPM. We extract BPM tasks from different literature streams, summarise them under the phases of a process`s lifecycle, explain how ML helps perform these tasks and identify technical commonalities in ML implementations across tasks. This study is the first exhaustive review of how ML has been used in BPM. We hope that it can open the door for a new era of cumulative research by helping researchers to identify relevant preliminary work and then combine and further develop existing approaches in a focused fashion. Our paper helps managers and consultants to find ML applications that are relevant in the current project phase of a BPM initiative, like redesigning a business process. We also offer - as a synthesis of our review - a research agenda that spreads ten avenues for future research, including applying novel ML concepts like federated learning, addressing less regarded BPM lifecycle phases like process identification, and delivering ML applications with a focus on end-users.

Retrosynthesis is a fundamental but challenging task in organic chemistry, with broad applications in fields such as drug design and synthesis. Given a target molecule, the goal of retrosynthesis is to find out a series of reactions which could be assembled into a synthetic route which starts from purchasable molecules and ends at the target molecule. The uncertainty of reactions used in retrosynthetic planning, which is caused by hallucinations of backward models, has recently been noticed. In this paper we propose a succinct probabilistic model to describe such uncertainty. Based on the model, we propose a new retrosynthesis planning algorithm called retro-prob to maximize the successful synthesis probability of target molecules, which acquires high efficiency by utilizing the chain rule of derivatives. Experiments on the Paroutes benchmark show that retro-prob outperforms previous algorithms, retro* and retro-fallback, both in speed and in the quality of synthesis plans.

Diffusion models have made rapid progress in generating high-quality samples across various domains. However, a theoretical understanding of the Lipschitz continuity and second momentum properties of the diffusion process is still lacking. In this paper, we bridge this gap by providing a detailed examination of these smoothness properties for the case where the target data distribution is a mixture of Gaussians, which serves as a universal approximator for smooth densities such as image data. We prove that if the target distribution is a $k$-mixture of Gaussians, the density of the entire diffusion process will also be a $k$-mixture of Gaussians. We then derive tight upper bounds on the Lipschitz constant and second momentum that are independent of the number of mixture components $k$. Finally, we apply our analysis to various diffusion solvers, both SDE and ODE based, to establish concrete error guarantees in terms of the total variation distance and KL divergence between the target and learned distributions. Our results provide deeper theoretical insights into the dynamics of the diffusion process under common data distributions.

This paper introduces the front-propagation algorithm, a novel eXplainable AI (XAI) technique designed to elucidate the decision-making logic of deep neural networks. Unlike other popular explainability algorithms such as Integrated Gradients or Shapley Values, the proposed algorithm is able to extract an accurate and consistent linear function explanation of the network in a single forward pass of the trained model. This nuance sets apart the time complexity of the front-propagation as it could be running real-time and in parallel with deployed models. We packaged this algorithm in a software called $\texttt{front-prop}$ and we demonstrate its efficacy in providing accurate linear functions with three different neural network architectures trained on publicly available benchmark datasets.

Causal discovery amounts to unearthing causal relationships amongst features in data. It is a crucial companion to causal inference, necessary to build scientific knowledge without resorting to expensive or impossible randomised control trials. In this paper, we explore how reasoning with symbolic representations can support causal discovery. Specifically, we deploy assumption-based argumentation (ABA), a well-established and powerful knowledge representation formalism, in combination with causality theories, to learn graphs which reflect causal dependencies in the data. We prove that our method exhibits desirable properties, notably that, under natural conditions, it can retrieve ground-truth causal graphs. We also conduct experiments with an implementation of our method in answer set programming (ASP) on four datasets from standard benchmarks in causal discovery, showing that our method compares well against established baselines.

To generate data from trained diffusion models, most inference algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM, and other variants, rely on discretizing the reverse SDEs or their equivalent ODEs. In this paper, we view such approaches as decomposing the entire denoising diffusion process into several segments, each corresponding to a reverse transition kernel (RTK) sampling subproblem. Specifically, DDPM uses a Gaussian approximation for the RTK, resulting in low per-subproblem complexity but requiring a large number of segments (i.e., subproblems), which is conjectured to be inefficient. To address this, we develop a general RTK framework that enables a more balanced subproblem decomposition, resulting in $\tilde O(1)$ subproblems, each with strongly log-concave targets. We then propose leveraging two fast sampling algorithms, the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) and Underdamped Langevin Dynamics (ULD), for solving these strongly log-concave subproblems. This gives rise to the RTK-MALA and RTK-ULD algorithms for diffusion inference. In theory, we further develop the convergence guarantees for RTK-MALA and RTK-ULD in total variation (TV) distance: RTK-ULD can achieve $\epsilon$ target error within $\tilde{\mathcal O}(d^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})$ under mild conditions, and RTK-MALA enjoys a $\mathcal{O}(d^{2}\log(d/\epsilon))$ convergence rate under slightly stricter conditions. These theoretical results surpass the state-of-the-art convergence rates for diffusion inference and are well supported by numerical experiments.

Federated learning (FL) allows for collaborative model training across decentralized clients while preserving privacy by avoiding data sharing. However, current FL methods assume conditional independence between client models, limiting the use of priors that capture dependence, such as Gaussian processes (GPs). We introduce the Structured Independence via deep Generative Model Approximation (SIGMA) prior which enables FL for non-factorizable models across clients, expanding the applicability of FL to fields such as spatial statistics, epidemiology, environmental science, and other domains where modeling dependencies is crucial. The SIGMA prior is a pre-trained deep generative model that approximates the desired prior and induces a specified conditional independence structure in the latent variables, creating an approximate model suitable for FL settings. We demonstrate the SIGMA prior's effectiveness on synthetic data and showcase its utility in a real-world example of FL for spatial data, using a conditional autoregressive prior to model spatial dependence across Australia. Our work enables new FL applications in domains where modeling dependent data is essential for accurate predictions and decision-making.