Mathematical equivalence between statistical mechanics and machine learning theory has been known since the 20th century, and researches based on such equivalence have provided novel methodology in both theoretical physics and statistical learning theory. For example, algebraic approach in statistical mechanics such as operator algebra enables us to analyze phase transition phenomena mathematically. In this paper, for theoretical physicists who are interested in artificial intelligence, we review and prospect algebraic researches in machine learning theory. If a learning machine has hierarchical structure or latent variables, then the random Hamiltonian cannot be expressed by any quadratic perturbation because it has singularities. To study an equilibrium state defined by such a singular random Hamiltonian, algebraic approach is necessary to derive asymptotic form of the free energy and the generalization error. We also introduce the most recent advance, in fact, theoretical foundation for alignment of artificial intelligence is now being constructed based on algebraic learning theory. This paper is devoted to the memory of Professor Huzihiro Araki who is a pioneer founder of algebraic research in both statistical mechanics and quantum field theory.

With the prevailing efforts to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there are still uncertainties that are yet to be discovered about its spread, future impact, and resurgence. In this paper, we present a three-stage data-driven approach to distill the hidden information about COVID-19. The first stage employs a Bayesian network structure learning method to identify the causal relationships among COVID-19 symptoms and their intrinsic demographic variables. As a second stage, the output from the Bayesian network structure learning, serves as a useful guide to train an unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithm that uncovers the similarities in patients' symptoms through clustering. The final stage then leverages the labels obtained from clustering to train a demographic symptom identification (DSID) model which predicts a patient's symptom class and the corresponding demographic probability distribution. We applied our method on the COVID-19 dataset obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States. Results from the experiments show a testing accuracy of 99.99%, as against the 41.15% accuracy of a heuristic ML method. This strongly reveals the viability of our Bayesian network and ML approach in understanding the relationship between the virus symptoms, and providing insights on patients' stratification towards reducing the severity of the virus.

Traditional regression and prediction tasks often only provide deterministic point estimates. To estimate the uncertainty or distribution information of the response variable, methods such as Bayesian inference, model ensembling, or MC Dropout are typically used. These methods either assume that the posterior distribution of samples follows a Gaussian process or require thousands of forward passes for sample generation. We propose a novel approach called DistPred for regression and forecasting tasks, which overcomes the limitations of existing methods while remaining simple and powerful. Specifically, we transform proper scoring rules that measure the discrepancy between the predicted distribution and the target distribution into a differentiable discrete form and use it as a loss function to train the model end-to-end. This allows the model to sample numerous samples in a single forward pass to estimate the potential distribution of the response variable. We have compared our method with several existing approaches on multiple datasets and achieved state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, our method significantly improves computational efficiency. For example, compared to state-of-the-art models, DistPred has a 90x faster inference speed. Experimental results can be reproduced through https://github.com/Anoise/DistPred.

Diffusion models are powerful generative models that allow for precise control over the characteristics of the generated samples. While these diffusion models trained on large datasets have achieved success, there is often a need to introduce additional controls in downstream fine-tuning processes, treating these powerful models as pre-trained diffusion models. This work presents a novel method based on reinforcement learning (RL) to add additional controls, leveraging an offline dataset comprising inputs and corresponding labels. We formulate this task as an RL problem, with the classifier learned from the offline dataset and the KL divergence against pre-trained models serving as the reward functions. We introduce our method, $\textbf{CTRL}$ ($\textbf{C}$onditioning pre-$\textbf{T}$rained diffusion models with $\textbf{R}$einforcement $\textbf{L}$earning), which produces soft-optimal policies that maximize the abovementioned reward functions. We formally demonstrate that our method enables sampling from the conditional distribution conditioned on additional controls during inference. Our RL-based approach offers several advantages over existing methods. Compared to commonly used classifier-free guidance, our approach improves sample efficiency, and can greatly simplify offline dataset construction by exploiting conditional independence between the inputs and additional controls. Furthermore, unlike classifier guidance, we avoid the need to train classifiers from intermediate states to additional controls.

Real-world applications of machine learning models are often subject to legal or policy-based regulations. Some of these regulations require ensuring the validity of the model, i.e., the approximation error being smaller than a threshold. A global metric is generally too insensitive to determine the validity of a specific prediction, whereas evaluating local validity is costly since it requires gathering additional data.We propose learning the model error to acquire a local validity estimate while reducing the amount of required data through active learning. Using model validation benchmarks, we provide empirical evidence that the proposed method can lead to an error model with sufficient discriminative properties using a relatively small amount of data. Furthermore, an increased sensitivity to local changes of the validity bounds compared to alternative approaches is demonstrated.

Physiological signal analysis often involves identifying events crucial to understanding biological dynamics. Traditional methods rely on handcrafted procedures or supervised learning, presenting challenges such as expert dependence, lack of robustness, and the need for extensive labeled data. Data-driven methods like Convolutional Dictionary Learning (CDL) offer an alternative but tend to produce spurious detections. This work introduces UNHaP (Unmix Noise from Hawkes Processes), a novel approach addressing the joint learning of temporal structures in events and the removal of spurious detections. Leveraging marked Hawkes processes, UNHaP distinguishes between events of interest and spurious ones. By treating the event detection output as a mixture of structured and unstructured events, UNHaP efficiently unmixes these processes and estimates their parameters. This approach significantly enhances the understanding of event distributions while minimizing false detection rates.

What in dynamical systems is called a bifurcation, in a laboratory setting (or in nature) is perceived as a qualitative change in the long-term observed dynamic behavior, sometimes dramatic. Pinpointing the location of these phenomena in state parameter space, and deciphering the nature of the underlying transitions, has been the focus of significant scientific effort for decades, e.g. in Biology [21, 17, 26, 54, 62, 32, 15]) or Chemistry [1, 48, 18, 76, 11, 46, 37]. In fact, accurate location of bifurcation points remains an active field of research computationally and experimentally [3]. When a reliable mathematical model is available, one can locate bifurcations either analytically (if the model is simple enough) or through scientific computing, e.g. in the context of numerical continuation. Such approaches reduce to the numerical solution of a system of (deterministic) equations that characterize bifurcations of a certain type [19, 13, 41].

Large language models (LLMs) can adapt to new tasks through in-context learning (ICL) based on a few examples presented in dialogue history without any model parameter update. Despite such convenience, the performance of ICL heavily depends on the quality of the in-context examples presented, which makes the in-context example selection approach a critical choice. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian in-Context example Selection method (ByCS) for ICL. Extending the inference probability conditioned on in-context examples based on Bayes' theorem, ByCS focuses on the inverse inference conditioned on test input. Following the assumption that accurate inverse inference probability (likelihood) will result in accurate inference probability (posterior), in-context examples are selected based on their inverse inference results. Diverse and extensive cross-tasking and cross-modality experiments are performed with speech, text, and image examples. Experimental results show the efficacy and robustness of our ByCS method on various models, tasks and modalities.

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current methods, such as Bayesian and graph-theoretical approaches, do not prioritize decision-making and often rely on ideal conditions or information gain, which is not directly related to hypothesis testing. We propose a novel Bayesian optimization-based method inspired by Bayes factors that aims to maximize the probability of obtaining decisive and correct evidence. Our approach uses observational data to estimate causal models under different hypotheses, evaluates potential interventions pre-experimentally, and iteratively updates priors to refine interventions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through various experiments. Our contributions provide a robust framework for efficient causal discovery through active interventions, enhancing the practical application of theoretical advancements.

Diffusion models have become the de-facto approach for generating visual data, which are trained to match the distribution of the training dataset. In addition, we also want to control generation to fulfill desired properties such as alignment to a text description, which can be specified with a black-box reward function. Prior works fine-tune pretrained diffusion models to achieve this goal through reinforcement learning-based algorithms. Nonetheless, they suffer from issues including slow credit assignment as well as low quality in their generated samples. In this work, we explore techniques that do not directly maximize the reward but rather generate high-reward images with relatively high probability -- a natural scenario for the framework of generative flow networks (GFlowNets). To this end, we propose the Diffusion Alignment with GFlowNet (DAG) algorithm to post-train diffusion models with black-box property functions. Extensive experiments on Stable Diffusion and various reward specifications corroborate that our method could effectively align large-scale text-to-image diffusion models with given reward information.