Precision matrices are crucial in many fields such as social networks, neuroscience, and economics, representing the edge structure of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), where a zero in an off-diagonal position of the precision matrix indicates conditional independence between nodes. In high-dimensional settings where the dimension of the precision matrix $p$ exceeds the sample size $n$ and the matrix is sparse, methods like graphical Lasso, graphical SCAD, and CLIME are popular for estimating GGMs. While frequentist methods are well-studied, Bayesian approaches for (unstructured) sparse precision matrices are less explored. The graphical horseshoe estimate by \citet{li2019graphical}, applying the global-local horseshoe prior, shows superior empirical performance, but theoretical work for sparse precision matrix estimations using shrinkage priors is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by providing concentration results for the tempered posterior with the fully specified horseshoe prior in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, we also provide novel theoretical results for model misspecification, offering a general oracle inequality for the posterior.

Traffic accidents pose a severe global public health issue, leading to 1.19 million fatalities annually, with the greatest impact on individuals aged 5 to 29 years old. This paper addresses the critical need for advanced predictive methods in road safety by conducting a comprehensive review of recent advancements in applying machine learning (ML) techniques to traffic accident analysis and prediction. It examines 191 studies from the last five years, focusing on predicting accident risk, frequency, severity, duration, as well as general statistical analysis of accident data. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide such a comprehensive review, covering the state-of-the-art across a wide range of domains related to accident analysis and prediction. The review highlights the effectiveness of integrating diverse data sources and advanced ML techniques to improve prediction accuracy and handle the complexities of traffic data. By mapping the current landscape and identifying gaps in the literature, this study aims to guide future research towards significantly reducing traffic-related deaths and injuries by 2030, aligning with the World Health Organization (WHO) targets.

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation of important variables (e.g., confounders, mediators, exogenous variables, etc.) severely compromises the reliability of CI methods. The issue may arise from the inherent difficulty in measuring the variables. Additionally, in observational studies where variables are passively recorded, certain covariates might be inadvertently omitted by the experimenter. Depending on the type of unobserved variables and the specific CI task, various consequences can be incurred if these latent variables are carelessly handled, such as biased estimation of causal effects, incomplete understanding of causal mechanisms, lack of individual-level causal consideration, etc. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of recent developments in CI with latent variables. We start by discussing traditional CI techniques when variables of interest are assumed to be fully observed. Afterward, under the taxonomy of circumvention and inference-based methods, we provide an in-depth discussion of various CI strategies to handle latent variables, covering the tasks of causal effect estimation, mediation analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and causal discovery. Furthermore, we generalize the discussion to graph data where interference among units may exist. Finally, we offer fresh aspects for further advancement of CI with latent variables, especially new opportunities in the era of large language models (LLMs).

We study model-based reinforcement learning with non-linear function approximation where the transition function of the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) is given by a multinomial logistic (MNL) model. In this paper, we develop two algorithms for the infinite-horizon average reward setting. Our first algorithm \texttt{UCRL2-MNL} applies to the class of communicating MDPs and achieves an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dD\sqrt{T})$ regret, where $d$ is the dimension of feature mapping, $D$ is the diameter of the underlying MDP, and $T$ is the horizon. The second algorithm \texttt{OVIFH-MNL} is computationally more efficient and applies to the more general class of weakly communicating MDPs, for which we show a regret guarantee of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{2/5} \mathrm{sp}(v^*)T^{4/5})$ where $\mathrm{sp}(v^*)$ is the span of the associated optimal bias function. We also prove a lower bound of $\Omega(d\sqrt{DT})$ for learning communicating MDPs with MNL transitions of diameter at most $D$. Furthermore, we show a regret lower bound of $\Omega(dH^{3/2}\sqrt{K})$ for learning $H$-horizon episodic MDPs with MNL function approximation where $K$ is the number of episodes, which improves upon the best-known lower bound for the finite-horizon setting.

For an autonomous vehicle to operate reliably within real-world traffic scenarios, it is imperative to assess the repercussions of its prospective actions by anticipating the uncertain intentions exhibited by other participants in the traffic environment. Driven by the pronounced multi-modal nature of human driving behavior, this paper presents an approach that leverages Bayesian beliefs over the distribution of potential policies of other road users to construct a novel risk-aware probabilistic motion planning framework. In particular, we propose a novel contingency planner that outputs long-term contingent plans conditioned on multiple possible intents for other actors in the traffic scene. The Bayesian belief is incorporated into the optimization cost function to influence the behavior of the short-term plan based on the likelihood of other agents' policies. Furthermore, a probabilistic risk metric is employed to fine-tune the balance between efficiency and robustness. Through a series of closed-loop safety-critical simulated traffic scenarios shared with human-driven vehicles, we demonstrate the practical efficacy of our proposed approach that can handle multi-vehicle scenarios.

In this paper, we generalize the Pearl and Neyman-Rubin methodologies in causal inference by introducing a generalized approach that incorporates fuzzy logic. Indeed, we introduce a fuzzy causal inference approach that consider both the vagueness and imprecision inherent in data, as well as the subjective human perspective characterized by fuzzy terms such as 'high', 'medium', and 'low'. To do so, we introduce two fuzzy causal effect formulas: the Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (FATE) and the Generalized Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (GFATE), together with their normalized versions: NFATE and NGFATE. When dealing with a binary treatment variable, our fuzzy causal effect formulas coincide with classical Average Treatment Effect (ATE) formula, that is a well-established and popular metric in causal inference. In FATE, all values of the treatment variable are considered equally important. In contrast, GFATE takes into account the rarity and frequency of these values. We show that for linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), the normalized versions of our formulas, NFATE and NGFATE, are equivalent to ATE. Further, we provide identifiability criteria for these formulas and show their stability with respect to minor variations in the fuzzy subsets and the probability distributions involved. This ensures the robustness of our approach in handling small perturbations in the data. Finally, we provide several experimental examples to empirically validate and demonstrate the practical application of our proposed fuzzy causal inference methods.

We introduce an evidential model for time-to-event prediction with censored data. In this model, uncertainty on event time is quantified by Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, a newly introduced family of random fuzzy subsets of the real line with associated belief functions, generalizing both Gaussian random variables and Gaussian possibility distributions. Our approach makes minimal assumptions about the underlying time-to-event distribution. The model is fit by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function that accounts for both normal and censored data. Comparative experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the very good performance of our model as compared to the state-of-the-art.

Given a raw knowledge in the form of a data table/a decision system, one is facing two possible venues. One, to treat the system as closed, i.e., its universe does not admit new objects, or, to the contrary, its universe is open on admittance of new objects. In particular, one may obtain new objects whose sets of values of features are new to the system. In this case the problem is to assign a decision value to any such new object. This problem is somehow resolved in the rough set theory, e.g., on the basis of similarity of the value set of a new object to value sets of objects already assigned a decision value. It is crucial for online learning when each new object must have a predicted decision value.\ There is a vast literature on various methods for decision prediction for new yet unseen object. The approach we propose is founded in the theory of rough mereology and it requires a theory of sets/concepts, and, we root our theory in classical set theory of Syllogistic within which we recall the theory of parts known as Mereology. Then, we recall our theory of Rough Mereology along with the theory of weight assignment to the Tarski algebra of Mereology.\ This allows us to introduce the notion of a part to a degree. Once we have defined basics of Mereology and rough Mereology, we recall our theory of weight assignment to elements of the Boolean algebra within Mereology and this allows us to define the relation of parts to the degree and we apply this notion in a procedure to select a decision for new yet unseen objects.\ In selecting a plausible candidate which would pass its decision value to the new object, we employ the notion of Vapnik - Chervonenkis dimension in order to select at the first stage the candidate with the largest VC-dimension of the family of its $\varepsilon$-components for some choice of $\varepsilon$.

Schr\"odinger bridge (SB) has emerged as the go-to method for optimizing transportation plans in diffusion models. However, SB requires estimating the intractable forward score functions, inevitably resulting in the costly implicit training loss based on simulated trajectories. To improve the scalability while preserving efficient transportation plans, we leverage variational inference to linearize the forward score functions (variational scores) of SB and restore simulation-free properties in training backward scores. We propose the variational Schr\"odinger diffusion model (VSDM), where the forward process is a multivariate diffusion and the variational scores are adaptively optimized for efficient transport. Theoretically, we use stochastic approximation to prove the convergence of the variational scores and show the convergence of the adaptively generated samples based on the optimal variational scores. Empirically, we test the algorithm in simulated examples and observe that VSDM is efficient in generations of anisotropic shapes and yields straighter sample trajectories compared to the single-variate diffusion. We also verify the scalability of the algorithm in real-world data and achieve competitive unconditional generation performance in CIFAR10 and conditional generation in time series modeling. Notably, VSDM no longer depends on warm-up initializations and has become tuning-friendly in training large-scale experiments.

Robust aggregation integrates predictions from multiple experts without knowledge of the experts' information structures. Prior work assumes experts are Bayesian, providing predictions as perfect posteriors based on their signals. However, real-world experts often deviate systematically from Bayesian reasoning. Our work considers experts who tend to ignore the base rate. We find that a certain degree of base rate neglect helps with robust forecast aggregation. Specifically, we consider a forecast aggregation problem with two experts who each predict a binary world state after observing private signals. Unlike previous work, we model experts exhibiting base rate neglect, where they incorporate the base rate information to degree $\lambda\in[0,1]$, with $\lambda=0$ indicating complete ignorance and $\lambda=1$ perfect Bayesian updating. To evaluate aggregators' performance, we adopt Arieli et al. (2018)'s worst-case regret model, which measures the maximum regret across the set of considered information structures compared to an omniscient benchmark. Our results reveal the surprising V-shape of regret as a function of $\lambda$. That is, predictions with an intermediate incorporating degree of base rate $\lambda<1$ can counter-intuitively lead to lower regret than perfect Bayesian posteriors with $\lambda=1$. We additionally propose a new aggregator with low regret robust to unknown $\lambda$. Finally, we conduct an empirical study to test the base rate neglect model and evaluate the performance of various aggregators.