Uncertainty
Characterization and Learning of Causal Graphs from Hard Interventions
A fundamental challenge in the empirical sciences involves uncovering causal structure through observation and experimentation. Causal discovery entails linking the conditional independence (CI) invariances in observational data to their corresponding graphical constraints via d-separation. In this paper, we consider a general setting where we have access to data from multiple experimental distributions resulting from hard interventions, as well as potentially from an observational distribution. By comparing different interventional distributions, we propose a set of graphical constraints that are fundamentally linked to Pearl's do-calculus within the framework of hard interventions. These graphical constraints associate each graphical structure with a set of interventional distributions that are consistent with the rules of do-calculus. We characterize the interventional equivalence class of causal graphs with latent variables and introduce a graphical representation that can be used to determine whether two causal graphs are interventionally equivalent, i.e., whether they are associated with the same family of hard interventional distributions, where the elements of the family are indistinguishable using the invariances from do-calculus. We also propose a learning algorithm to integrate multiple datasets from hard interventions, introducing new orientation rules. The learning objective is a tuple of augmented graphs which entails a set of causal graphs. We also prove the soundness of the proposed algorithm.
Approach for End to End Safe Reinforcement Learning
A longstanding goal in safe reinforcement learning (RL) is a method to ensure the safety of a policy throughout the entire process, from learning to operation. However, existing safe RL paradigms inherently struggle to achieve this objective. We propose a method, called Provably Lifetime Safe RL (PLS), that integrates offline safe RL with safe policy deployment to address this challenge. Our proposed method learns a policy offline using return-conditioned supervised learning and then deploys the resulting policy while cautiously optimizing a limited set of parameters, known as target returns, using Gaussian processes (GPs). Theoretically, we justify the use of GPs by analyzing the mathematical relationship between target and actual returns. We then prove that PLS finds near-optimal target returns while guaranteeing safety with high probability. Empirically, we demonstrate that PLS outperforms baselines both in safety and reward performance, thereby achieving the longstanding goal to obtain high rewards while ensuring the safety of a policy throughout the lifetime from learning to operation.
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Human behavior is characterized by continuous learning to reduce uncertainties about the world in pursuit of goals. When trying to understand such behavior from observations, it is essential to account for this adaptive nature and reason about the uncertainties that may have led to seemingly suboptimal decisions. Nevertheless, most inverse approaches to sequential decision-making focus on inferring cost functions underlying stationary behavior or are limited to low-dimensional tasks. In this paper, we address this gap by considering the problem of inferring an agent's knowledge or awareness about the environment based on a given trajectory. We assume that the agent aims to reach a goal in an environment they only partially know, and integrates new information into their plan as they act. We propose a Bayesian approach to infer their latent knowledge state, leveraging an approximate navigation model that optimistically incorporates partial information while accounting for uncertainty. By combining sample-based Bayesian inference with dynamic graph algorithms, we achieve an efficient method for computing posterior beliefs about the agent's knowledge. Empirical validation using simulated behavioral data and human data from an online experiment demonstrates that our model effectively captures human navigation under uncertainty and reveals interpretable insights into their environmental knowledge.
When Models Don't Collapse: On the Consistency of Iterative MLE
The widespread use of generative models has created a feedback loop, in which each version of a model is trained on data partially produced by its predecessors. This process has raised concerns about model collapse: A critical degradation in performance caused by repeated training on synthetic data. However, different analyses in the literature have reached different conclusions as to the severity of model collapse. As such, it remains unclear how concerning this phenomenon is, and under which assumptions it can be avoided. To address this, we theoretically study model collapse for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), in a natural setting where synthetic data is gradually added to the original data set. Under standard assumptions (similar to those long used for proving asymptotic consistency and normality of MLE), we establish non-asymptotic bounds showing that collapse can be avoided even as the fraction of real data vanishes. On the other hand, we prove that some assumptions (beyond MLE consistency) are indeed necessary: Without them, model collapse can occur arbitrarily quickly, even when the original data is still present in the training set. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous examples of iterative generative modeling with accumulating data that rapidly leads to model collapse.
Backpropagation-Free Test-Time Adaptation via Probabilistic Gaussian Alignment
Test-time adaptation (TTA) enhances the zero-shot robustness under distribution shifts by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. Despite notable advances, several challenges still limit its broader applicability. First, most methods rely on backpropagation or iterative optimization, which limits scalability and hinders real-time deployment. Second, they lack explicit modeling of class-conditional feature distributions. This modeling is crucial for producing reliable decision boundaries and calibrated predictions, but it remains underexplored due to the lack of both source data and supervision at test time.
Dynamic Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge in Astrophysical Observational Inversions
We study Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge (DSB) models in the context of dynamical astrophysical systems, specifically tackling observational inverse prediction tasks within Giant Molecular Clouds (GMCs) for star formation. We introduce the AstroDSB model, a variant of DSB with the pairwise domain assumption tailored for astrophysical dynamics.
Fit the Distribution: Cross-Image/Prompt Adversarial Attacks on Multimodal Large Language Models
Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable achievements in recent years, they remain vulnerable to adversarial examples that result in harmful responses. Existing attacks typically focus on optimizing adversarial perturbations for a certain multimodal image-prompt pair or fixed training dataset, which often leads to overfitting. Consequently, these perturbations fail to remain malicious once transferred to attack unseen image-prompt pairs, suffering from significant resource costs to cover the diverse multimodal inputs in complicated real-world scenarios. To alleviate this issue, this paper proposes a novel adversarial attack on MLLMs based on distribution approximation theory, which models the potential image-prompt input distribution and adds the same distribution-fitting adversarial perturbation on multimodal input pairs to achieve effective cross-image/prompt transfer attacks. Specifically, we exploit the Laplace approximation to model the Gaussian distribution of the image and prompt inputs for the MLLM, deriving an estimate of the mean and covariance parameters. By sampling from this approximated distribution with Monte Carlo mechanism, we efficiently optimize and fit a single input-agnostic perturbation over diverse image-prompt pairs, yielding strong universality and transferability. Extensive experiments are conducted to verify the strong adversarial capabilities of our proposed attack against prevalent MLLMs spanning a spectrum of images/prompts.
Tackling Biased Evaluators in Dueling Bandits
In dueling bandits, an agent explores and exploits choices (i.e., arms) by learning from their stochastic feedback in the form of relative preferences. Prior related studies focused on unbiased feedback. In practice, however, the feedback provided by evaluators can be biased. For example, human users are likely to provide biased evaluation towards large language models due to their heterogeneous background. In this work, we aim to minimize the regret in dueling bandits considering evaluators' biased feedback.
Generalized Linear Bandits: Almost Optimal Regret with One-Pass Update
We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a nonlinear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with O(1)time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.