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 Uncertainty


Fast Inference for Probabilistic Answer Set Programs via the Residual Program

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When we want to compute the probability of a query from a Probabilistic Answer Set Program, some parts of a program may not influence the probability of a query, but they impact on the size of the grounding. Identifying and removing them is crucial to speed up the computation. Algorithms for SLG resolution offer the possibility of returning the residual program which can be used for computing answer sets for normal programs that do have a total well-founded model. The residual program does not contain the parts of the program that do not influence the probability. In this paper, we propose to exploit the residual program for performing inference. Empirical results on graph datasets show that the approach leads to significantly faster inference. The paper has been accepted at the ICLP2024 conference and under consideration in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).


Incremental Structure Discovery of Classification via Sequential Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for making predictions and understanding uncertainty for classification with kernels and Bayesian non-parametric learning. Building such models typically requires strong prior knowledge to define preselect kernels, which could be ineffective for online applications of classification that sequentially process data because features of data may shift during the process. To alleviate the requirement of prior knowledge used in GPs and learn new features from data that arrive successively, this paper presents a novel method to automatically discover models of classification on complex data with little prior knowledge. Our method adapts a recently proposed technique for GP-based time-series structure discovery, which integrates GPs and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We extend the technique to handle extra latent variables in GP classification, such that our method can effectively and adaptively learn a-priori unknown structures of classification from continuous input. In addition, our method adapts new batch of data with updated structures of models. Our experiments show that our method is able to automatically incorporate various features of kernels on synthesized data and real-world data for classification. In the experiments of real-world data, our method outperforms various classification methods on both online and offline setting achieving a 10\% accuracy improvement on one benchmark.


Adaptive Basis Function Selection for Computationally Efficient Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Basis Function (BF) expansions are a cornerstone of any engineer's toolbox for computational function approximation which shares connections with both neural networks and Gaussian processes. Even though BF expansions are an intuitive and straightforward model to use, they suffer from quadratic computational complexity in the number of BFs if the predictive variance is to be computed. We develop a method to automatically select the most important BFs for prediction in a sub-domain of the model domain. This significantly reduces the computational complexity of computing predictions while maintaining predictive accuracy. The proposed method is demonstrated using two numerical examples, where reductions up to 50-75% are possible without significantly reducing the predictive accuracy.


On learning capacities of Sugeno integrals with systems of fuzzy relational equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article, we introduce a method for learning a capacity underlying a Sugeno integral according to training data based on systems of fuzzy relational equations. To the training data, we associate two systems of equations: a $\max-\min$ system and a $\min-\max$ system. By solving these two systems (in the case that they are consistent) using Sanchez's results, we show that we can directly obtain the extremal capacities representing the training data. By reducing the $\max-\min$ (resp. $\min-\max$) system of equations to subsets of criteria of cardinality less than or equal to $q$ (resp. of cardinality greater than or equal to $n-q$), where $n$ is the number of criteria, we give a sufficient condition for deducing, from its potential greatest solution (resp. its potential lowest solution), a $q$-maxitive (resp. $q$-minitive) capacity. Finally, if these two reduced systems of equations are inconsistent, we show how to obtain the greatest approximate $q$-maxitive capacity and the lowest approximate $q$-minitive capacity, using recent results to handle the inconsistency of systems of fuzzy relational equations.


A Quantum-Inspired Analysis of Human Disambiguation Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Formal languages are essential for computer programming and are constructed to be easily processed by computers. In contrast, natural languages are much more challenging and instigated the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP). One major obstacle is the ubiquity of ambiguities. Recent advances in NLP have led to the development of large language models, which can resolve ambiguities with high accuracy. At the same time, quantum computers have gained much attention in recent years as they can solve some computational problems faster than classical computers. This new computing paradigm has reached the fields of machine learning and NLP, where hybrid classical-quantum learning algorithms have emerged. However, more research is needed to identify which NLP tasks could benefit from a genuine quantum advantage. In this thesis, we applied formalisms arising from foundational quantum mechanics, such as contextuality and causality, to study ambiguities arising from linguistics. By doing so, we also reproduced psycholinguistic results relating to the human disambiguation process. These results were subsequently used to predict human behaviour and outperformed current NLP methods.


$\chi$SPN: Characteristic Interventional Sum-Product Networks for Causal Inference in Hybrid Domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal inference in hybrid domains, characterized by a mixture of discrete and continuous variables, presents a formidable challenge. We take a step towards this direction and propose Characteristic Interventional Sum-Product Network ($\chi$SPN) that is capable of estimating interventional distributions in presence of random variables drawn from mixed distributions. $\chi$SPN uses characteristic functions in the leaves of an interventional SPN (iSPN) thereby providing a unified view for discrete and continuous random variables through the Fourier-Stieltjes transform of the probability measures. A neural network is used to estimate the parameters of the learned iSPN using the intervened data. Our experiments on 3 synthetic heterogeneous datasets suggest that $\chi$SPN can effectively capture the interventional distributions for both discrete and continuous variables while being expressive and causally adequate. We also show that $\chi$SPN generalize to multiple interventions while being trained only on a single intervention data.


Fast Unconstrained Optimization via Hessian Averaging and Adaptive Gradient Sampling Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider minimizing finite-sum and expectation objective functions via Hessian-averaging based subsampled Newton methods. These methods allow for gradient inexactness and have fixed per-iteration Hessian approximation costs. The recent work (Na et al. 2023) demonstrated that Hessian averaging can be utilized to achieve fast $\mathcal{O}\left(\sqrt{\tfrac{\log k}{k}}\right)$ local superlinear convergence for strongly convex functions in high probability, while maintaining fixed per-iteration Hessian costs. These methods, however, require gradient exactness and strong convexity, which poses challenges for their practical implementation. To address this concern we consider Hessian-averaged methods that allow gradient inexactness via norm condition based adaptive-sampling strategies. For the finite-sum problem we utilize deterministic sampling techniques which lead to global linear and sublinear convergence rates for strongly convex and nonconvex functions respectively. In this setting we are able to derive an improved deterministic local superlinear convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}\left(\tfrac{1}{k}\right)$. For the %expected risk expectation problem we utilize stochastic sampling techniques, and derive global linear and sublinear rates for strongly convex and nonconvex functions, as well as a $\mathcal{O}\left(\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{k}}\right)$ local superlinear convergence rate, all in expectation. We present novel analysis techniques that differ from the previous probabilistic results. Additionally, we propose scalable and efficient variations of these methods via diagonal approximations and derive the novel diagonally-averaged Newton (Dan) method for large-scale problems. Our numerical results demonstrate that the Hessian averaging not only helps with convergence, but can lead to state-of-the-art performance on difficult problems such as CIFAR100 classification with ResNets.


Model Counting in the Wild

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model counting is a fundamental problem in automated reasoning with applications in probabilistic inference, network reliability, neural network verification, and more. Although model counting is computationally intractable from a theoretical perspective due to its #P-completeness, the past decade has seen significant progress in developing state-of-the-art model counters to address scalability challenges. In this work, we conduct a rigorous assessment of the scalability of model counters in the wild. To this end, we surveyed 11 application domains and collected an aggregate of 2262 benchmarks from these domains. We then evaluated six state-of-the-art model counters on these instances to assess scalability and runtime performance. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the performance of model counters varies significantly across different application domains, underscoring the need for careful selection by the end user. Additionally, we investigated the behavior of different counters with respect to two parameters suggested by the model counting community, finding only a weak correlation. Our analysis highlights the challenges and opportunities for portfolio-based approaches in model counting.


Stunned by Sleeping Beauty: How Prince Probability updates his forecast upon their fateful encounter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in probability theory that has gained much attention since Elga's discussion of it [Elga, Adam, Analysis 60 (2), p.143-147 (2000)]. Sleeping Beauty is put asleep, and a coin is tossed. If the outcome of the coin toss is Tails, Sleeping Beauty is woken up on Monday, put asleep again and woken up again on Tuesday (with no recollection of having woken up on Monday). If the outcome is Heads, Sleeping Beauty is woken up on Monday only. Each time Sleeping Beauty is woken up, she is asked what her belief is that the outcome was Heads. What should Sleeping Beauty reply? In literature arguments have been given for both 1/3 and 1/2 as the correct answer. In this short note we argue using simple Bayesian probability theory why 1/3 is the right answer, and not 1/2. Briefly, when Sleeping Beauty awakens, her being awake is nontrivial extra information that leads her to update her beliefs about Heads to 1/3. We strengthen our claim by considering an additional observer, Prince Probability, who may or may not meet Sleeping Beauty. If he meets Sleeping Beauty while she is awake, he lowers his credence in Heads to 1/3. We also briefly consider the credence in Heads of a Sleeping Beauty who knows that she is dreaming (and thus asleep).


Fully Bayesian Differential Gaussian Processes through Stochastic Differential Equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional deep Gaussian processes model the data evolution using a discrete hierarchy, whereas differential Gaussian processes (DIFFGPs) represent the evolution as an infinitely deep Gaussian process. However, prior DIFFGP methods often overlook the uncertainty of kernel hyperparameters and assume them to be fixed and time-invariant, failing to leverage the unique synergy between continuous-time models and approximate inference. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach that treats the kernel hyperparameters as random variables and constructs coupled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to learn their posterior distribution and that of inducing points. By incorporating estimation uncertainty on hyperparameters, our method enhances the model's flexibility and adaptability to complex dynamics. Additionally, our approach provides a time-varying, comprehensive, and realistic posterior approximation through coupling variables using SDE methods. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages of our method over traditional approaches, showcasing its superior performance in terms of flexibility, accuracy, and other metrics. Our work opens up exciting research avenues for advancing Bayesian inference and offers a powerful modeling tool for continuous-time Gaussian processes.