In this survey, we design formal verification and control algorithms for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees using conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. We focus on learning-enabled autonomous systems (LEASs) in which the complexity of learning-enabled components (LECs) is a major bottleneck that hampers the use of existing model-based verification and design techniques. Instead, we advocate for the use of CP, and we will demonstrate its use in formal verification, systems and control theory, and robotics. We argue that CP is specifically useful due to its simplicity (easy to understand, use, and modify), generality (requires no assumptions on learned models and data distributions, i.e., is distribution-free), and efficiency (real-time capable and accurate). We pursue the following goals with this survey. First, we provide an accessible introduction to CP for non-experts who are interested in using CP to solve problems in autonomy. Second, we show how to use CP for the verification of LECs, e.g., for verifying input-output properties of neural networks. Third and fourth, we review recent articles that use CP for safe control design as well as offline and online verification of LEASs. We summarize their ideas in a unifying framework that can deal with the complexity of LEASs in a computationally efficient manner. In our exposition, we consider simple system specifications, e.g., robot navigation tasks, as well as complex specifications formulated in temporal logic formalisms. Throughout our survey, we compare to other statistical techniques (e.g., scenario optimization, PAC-Bayes theory, etc.) and how these techniques have been used in verification and control. Lastly, we point the reader to open problems and future research directions.

The article focuses on the urgent issue of femicide in Veracruz, Mexico, and the development of the MFM_FEM_VER_CP_2024 model, a mathematical framework designed to predict femicide risk using fuzzy logic. This model addresses the complexity and uncertainty inherent in gender based violence by formalizing risk factors such as coercive control, dehumanization, and the cycle of violence. These factors are mathematically modeled through membership functions that assess the degree of risk associated with various conditions, including personal relationships and specific acts of violence. The study enhances the original model by incorporating new rules and refining existing membership functions, which significantly improve the model predictive accuracy.

We introduced the Scorpion Hunting Strategy (SHS), a novel population-based, nature-inspired optimisation algorithm. This algorithm draws inspiration from the hunting strategy of scorpions, which identify, locate, and capture their prey using the alpha and beta vibration operators. These operators control the SHS algorithm's exploitation and exploration abilities. To formulate an optimisation method, we mathematically simulate these dynamic events and behaviors. We evaluate the effectiveness of the SHS algorithm by employing 20 benchmark functions (including 10 conventional and 10 CEC2020 functions), using both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Through a comparative analysis with 12 state-of-the-art meta-heuristic algorithms, we demonstrate that the proposed SHS algorithm yields exceptionally promising results. These findings are further supported by statistically significant results obtained through the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Additionally, the ranking of SHS, as determined by the average rank derived from the Friedman test, positions it at the forefront when compared to other algorithms. Going beyond theoretical validation, we showcase the practical utility of the SHS algorithm by applying it to six distinct real-world optimisation tasks. These applications illustrate the algorithm's potential in addressing complex optimisation challenges. In summary, this work not only introduces the innovative SHS algorithm but also substantiates its effectiveness and versatility through rigorous benchmarking and real-world problem-solving scenarios.

Localization using time-difference of arrival (TDOA) has myriad applications, e.g., in passive surveillance systems and marine mammal research. In this paper, we present a Bayesian estimation method that can localize an unknown number of static sources in 3-D based on TDOA measurements. The proposed localization algorithm based on particle flow (PFL) can overcome the challenges related to the highly nonlinear TDOA measurement model, the data association (DA) uncertainty, and the uncertainty in the number of sources to be localized. Different PFL strategies are compared within a unified belief propagation (BP) framework in a challenging multisensor source localization problem. In particular, we consider PFL-based approximation of beliefs based on one or multiple Gaussian kernels with parameters computed using deterministic and stochastic flow processes. Our numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can correctly determine the number of sources and provide accurate location estimates. The stochastic flow demonstrates greater accuracy compared to the deterministic flow when using the same number of particles.

A natural strategy for continual learning is to weigh a Bayesian ensemble of fixed functions. This suggests that if a (single) neural network could be interpreted as an ensemble, one could design effective algorithms that learn without forgetting. To realize this possibility, we observe that a neural network classifier with N parameters can be interpreted as a weighted ensemble of N classifiers, and that in the lazy regime limit these classifiers are fixed throughout learning. We term these classifiers the neural tangent experts and show they output valid probability distributions over the labels. We then derive the likelihood and posterior probability of each expert given past data. Surprisingly, we learn that the posterior updates for these experts are equivalent to a scaled and projected form of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) over the network weights. Away from the lazy regime, networks can be seen as ensembles of adaptive experts which improve over time. These results offer a new interpretation of neural networks as Bayesian ensembles of experts, providing a principled framework for understanding and mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning settings.

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In the first stage of a two-stage problem, here-and-now decisions must be made in the face of this uncertainty, while in the second stage, wait-and-see decisions are made after the uncertainty has been resolved. Many methods in stochastic programming assume that the objective is cheap to evaluate and linear or convex. In this work, we apply Bayesian optimization to solve non-convex, two-stage stochastic programs which are expensive to evaluate. We formulate a knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function to jointly optimize the first- and second-stage variables, establish a guarantee of asymptotic consistency and provide a computationally efficient approximation. We demonstrate comparable empirical results to an alternative we formulate which alternates its focus between the two variable types, and superior empirical results over the standard, naive, two-step benchmark. We show that differences in the dimension and length scales between the variable types can lead to inefficiencies of the two-step algorithm, while the joint and alternating acquisition functions perform well in all problems tested. Experiments are conducted on both synthetic and real-world examples.

In this work, we consider the problem of training a generator from evaluations of energy functions or unnormalized densities. This is a fundamental problem in probabilistic inference, which is crucial for scientific applications such as learning the 3D coordinate distribution of a molecule. To solve this problem, we propose iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM), the first off-policy approach to train continuous normalizing flow (CNF) models from unnormalized densities. We introduce the simulation-free energy-based flow matching objective, which trains the model to predict the Monte Carlo estimation of the marginal vector field constructed from known energy functions. Our framework is general and can be extended to variance-exploding (VE) and optimal transport (OT) conditional probability paths. We evaluate iEFM on a two-dimensional Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and an eight-dimensional four-particle double-well potential (DW-4) energy function. Our results demonstrate that iEFM outperforms existing methods, showcasing its potential for efficient and scalable probabilistic modeling in complex high-dimensional systems.

The dominant practice of AI alignment assumes (1) that preferences are an adequate representation of human values, (2) that human rationality can be understood in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of preferences, and (3) that AI systems should be aligned with the preferences of one or more humans to ensure that they behave safely and in accordance with our values. Whether implicitly followed or explicitly endorsed, these commitments constitute what we term a preferentist approach to AI alignment. In this paper, we characterize and challenge the preferentist approach, describing conceptual and technical alternatives that are ripe for further research. We first survey the limits of rational choice theory as a descriptive model, explaining how preferences fail to capture the thick semantic content of human values, and how utility representations neglect the possible incommensurability of those values. We then critique the normativity of expected utility theory (EUT) for humans and AI, drawing upon arguments showing how rational agents need not comply with EUT, while highlighting how EUT is silent on which preferences are normatively acceptable. Finally, we argue that these limitations motivate a reframing of the targets of AI alignment: Instead of alignment with the preferences of a human user, developer, or humanity-writ-large, AI systems should be aligned with normative standards appropriate to their social roles, such as the role of a general-purpose assistant. Furthermore, these standards should be negotiated and agreed upon by all relevant stakeholders. On this alternative conception of alignment, a multiplicity of AI systems will be able to serve diverse ends, aligned with normative standards that promote mutual benefit and limit harm despite our plural and divergent values.

Balancing computational efficiency with robust predictive performance is crucial in supervised learning, especially for critical applications. Standard deep learning models, while accurate and scalable, often lack probabilistic features like calibrated predictions and uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods address these issues but can be computationally expensive as model and data complexity increase. Previous work shows that fast variational methods can reduce the compute requirements of Bayesian methods by eliminating the need for gradient computation or sampling, but are often limited to simple models. We demonstrate that conditional mixture networks (CMNs), a probabilistic variant of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, are suitable for fast, gradient-free inference and can solve complex classification tasks. CMNs employ linear experts and a softmax gating network. By exploiting conditional conjugacy and P\'olya-Gamma augmentation, we furnish Gaussian likelihoods for the weights of both the linear experts and the gating network. This enables efficient variational updates using coordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI), avoiding traditional gradient-based optimization. We validate this approach by training two-layer CMNs on standard benchmarks from the UCI repository. Our method, CAVI-CMN, achieves competitive and often superior predictive accuracy compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with backpropagation, while maintaining competitive runtime and full posterior distributions over all model parameters. Moreover, as input size or the number of experts increases, computation time scales competitively with MLE and other gradient-based solutions like black-box variational inference (BBVI), making CAVI-CMN a promising tool for deep, fast, and gradient-free Bayesian networks.

Existing Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) models excel in accuracy but often overlook open-world challenges posed by open-vocabulary queries and untrimmed videos. This leads to unreliable predictions for noisy, corrupted, and out-of-distribution data. Adapting VTG models to dynamically estimate uncertainties based on user input can address this issue. To this end, we introduce SRAM, a robust network module that benefits from a two-stage cross-modal alignment task. More importantly, it integrates Deep Evidential Regression (DER) to explicitly and thoroughly quantify uncertainty during training, thus allowing the model to say "I do not know" in scenarios beyond its handling capacity. However, the direct application of traditional DER theory and its regularizer reveals structural flaws, leading to unintended constraints in VTG tasks. In response, we develop a simple yet effective Geom-regularizer that enhances the uncertainty learning framework from the ground up. To the best of our knowledge, this marks the first successful attempt of DER in VTG. Our extensive quantitative and qualitative results affirm the effectiveness, robustness, and interpretability of our modules and the uncertainty learning paradigm in VTG tasks. The code will be made available.