Uncertainty
Semi-Supervised Sparse Gaussian Classification: Provable Benefits of Unlabeled Data
The premise of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is that combining labeled and unlabeled data yields significantly more accurate models. Despite empirical successes, the theoretical understanding of SSL is still far from complete. In this work, we study SSL for high dimensional sparse Gaussian classification. To construct an accurate classifier a key task is feature selection, detecting the few variables that separate the two classes. % For this SSL setting, we analyze information theoretic lower bounds for accurate feature selection as well as computational lower bounds, assuming the low-degree likelihood hardness conjecture. % Our key contribution is the identification of a regime in the problem parameters (dimension, sparsity, number of labeled and unlabeled samples) where SSL is guaranteed to be advantageous for classification. Specifically, there is a regime where it is possible to construct in polynomial time an accurate SSL classifier. However, % any computationally efficient supervised or unsupervised learning schemes, that separately use only the labeled or unlabeled data would fail. Our work highlights the provable benefits of combining labeled and unlabeled data for {classification and} feature selection in high dimensions. We present simulations that complement our theoretical analysis.
Introduction to Machine Learning
This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.
Non-stationary and Sparsely-correlated Multi-output Gaussian Process with Spike-and-Slab Prior
Xinming, Wang, Yongxiang, Li, Xiaowei, Yue, Jianguo, Wu
Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) is commonly used as a transfer learning method to leverage information among multiple outputs. A key advantage of MGP is providing uncertainty quantification for prediction, which is highly important for subsequent decision-making tasks. However, traditional MGP may not be sufficiently flexible to handle multivariate data with dynamic characteristics, particularly when dealing with complex temporal correlations. Additionally, since some outputs may lack correlation, transferring information among them may lead to negative transfer. To address these issues, this study proposes a non-stationary MGP model that can capture both the dynamic and sparse correlation among outputs. Specifically, the covariance functions of MGP are constructed using convolutions of time-varying kernel functions. Then a dynamic spike-and-slab prior is placed on correlation parameters to automatically decide which sources are informative to the target output in the training process. An expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed for efficient model fitting. Both numerical studies and a real case demonstrate its efficacy in capturing dynamic and sparse correlation structure and mitigating negative transfer for high-dimensional time-series data. Finally, a mountain-car reinforcement learning case highlights its potential application in decision making problems.
Resultant: Incremental Effectiveness on Likelihood for Unsupervised Out-of-Distribution Detection
Li, Yewen, Wang, Chaojie, Xia, Xiaobo, He, Xu, An, Ruyi, Li, Dong, Liu, Tongliang, An, Bo, Wang, Xinrun
Unsupervised out-of-distribution (U-OOD) detection is to identify OOD data samples with a detector trained solely on unlabeled in-distribution (ID) data. The likelihood function estimated by a deep generative model (DGM) could be a natural detector, but its performance is limited in some popular "hard" benchmarks, such as FashionMNIST (ID) vs. MNIST (OOD). Recent studies have developed various detectors based on DGMs to move beyond likelihood. However, despite their success on "hard" benchmarks, most of them struggle to consistently surpass or match the performance of likelihood on some "non-hard" cases, such as SVHN (ID) vs. CIFAR10 (OOD) where likelihood could be a nearly perfect detector. Therefore, we appeal for more attention to incremental effectiveness on likelihood, i.e., whether a method could always surpass or at least match the performance of likelihood in U-OOD detection. We first investigate the likelihood of variational DGMs and find its detection performance could be improved in two directions: i) alleviating latent distribution mismatch, and ii) calibrating the dataset entropy-mutual integration. Then, we apply two techniques for each direction, specifically post-hoc prior and dataset entropy-mutual calibration. The final method, named Resultant, combines these two directions for better incremental effectiveness compared to either technique alone. Experimental results demonstrate that the Resultant could be a new state-of-the-art U-OOD detector while maintaining incremental effectiveness on likelihood in a wide range of tasks.
Masked Diffusion Models are Secretly Time-Agnostic Masked Models and Exploit Inaccurate Categorical Sampling
Zheng, Kaiwen, Chen, Yongxin, Mao, Hanzi, Liu, Ming-Yu, Zhu, Jun, Zhang, Qinsheng
Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs) for language modeling tasks. The recent effort in simplifying the masked diffusion framework further leads to alignment with continuous-space diffusion models and more principled training and sampling recipes. In this paper, however, we reveal that both training and sampling of MDMs are theoretically free from the time variable, arguably the key signature of diffusion models, and are instead equivalent to masked models. The connection on the sampling aspect is drawn by our proposed first-hitting sampler (FHS). Specifically, we show that the FHS is theoretically equivalent to MDMs' original generation process while significantly alleviating the time-consuming categorical sampling and achieving a 20$\times$ speedup. In addition, our investigation challenges previous claims that MDMs can surpass ARMs in generative perplexity. We identify, for the first time, an underlying numerical issue, even with the 32-bit floating-point precision, which results in inaccurate categorical sampling. We show that the numerical issue lowers the effective temperature both theoretically and empirically, leading to unfair assessments of MDMs' generation results in the previous literature.
Inverse decision-making using neural amortized Bayesian actors
Straub, Dominik, Niehues, Tobias F., Peters, Jan, Rothkopf, Constantin A.
Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and biases to different interpretable entities such as perceptual and motor uncertainty, prior beliefs, and behavioral costs. However, when extending these models to more complex tasks with continuous actions, solving the Bayesian decision-making problem is often analytically intractable. Moreover, inverting such models to perform inference over their parameters given behavioral data is computationally even more difficult. Therefore, researchers typically constrain their models to easily tractable components, such as Gaussian distributions or quadratic cost functions, or resort to numerical methods. To overcome these limitations, we amortize the Bayesian actor using a neural network trained on a wide range of different parameter settings in an unsupervised fashion. Using the pre-trained neural network enables performing gradient-based Bayesian inference of the Bayesian actor model's parameters. We show on synthetic data that the inferred posterior distributions are in close alignment with those obtained using analytical solutions where they exist. Where no analytical solution is available, we recover posterior distributions close to the ground truth. We then show that identifiability problems between priors and costs can arise in more complex cost functions. Finally, we apply our method to empirical data and show that it explains systematic individual differences of behavioral patterns.
Fuzzy Logic Control for Indoor Navigation of Mobile Robots
Kumar, Akshay, Sahasrabudhe, Ashwin, Nirgude, Sanjuksha
Autonomous mobile robots have many applications in indoor unstructured environment, wherein optimal movement of the robot is needed. The robot therefore needs to navigate in unknown and dynamic environments. This paper presents an implementation of fuzzy logic controller for navigation of mobile robot in an unknown dynamically cluttered environment. Fuzzy logic controller is used here as it is capable of making inferences even under uncertainties. It helps in rule generation and decision making process in order to reach the goal position under various situations. Sensor readings from the robot and the desired direction of motion are inputs to the fuzz logic controllers and the acceleration of the respective wheels are the output of the controller. Hence, the mobile robot avoids obstacles and reaches the goal position. Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Controller, Membership Functions, Takagi-Sugeno-Kang FIS, Centroid Defuzzification
When Does Visual Prompting Outperform Linear Probing for Vision-Language Models? A Likelihood Perspective
Tsao, Hsi-Ai, Hsiung, Lei, Chen, Pin-Yu, Ho, Tsung-Yi
When applying transfer learning to downstream tasks, specific modifications to the pre-trained model are required. For instance, linear probing (LP) involves adjusting the linear layer in the model's penultimate layer, while full fine-tuning involves modifying all parameters in the model. However, in the emerging field of fine-tuning for transfer learning, visual prompting (VP) (Bahng et al., 2022; Chen, 2024) offers a method that does not necessitate changes to the pre-trained model. Specifically, studies such as CLIP-VP (Bahng et al., 2022) and AutoVP (Tsao et al., 2024) indicate that visual prompting is particularly suitable for out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets. In AutoVP, the authors observed that datasets with lower confidence scores, indicative of being more OOD, tend to achieve greater accuracy gains (i.e., the performance difference between VP and LP).
Lexicographic optimization-based approaches to learning a representative model for multi-criteria sorting with non-monotonic criteria
Zhang, Zhen, Li, Zhuolin, Yu, Wenyu
Deriving a representative model using value function-based methods from the perspective of preference disaggregation has emerged as a prominent and growing topic in multi-criteria sorting (MCS) problems. A noteworthy observation is that many existing approaches to learning a representative model for MCS problems traditionally assume the monotonicity of criteria, which may not always align with the complexities found in real-world MCS scenarios. Consequently, this paper proposes some approaches to learning a representative model for MCS problems with non-monotonic criteria through the integration of the threshold-based value-driven sorting procedure. To do so, we first define some transformation functions to map the marginal values and category thresholds into a UTA-like functional space. Subsequently, we construct constraint sets to model non-monotonic criteria in MCS problems and develop optimization models to check and rectify the inconsistency of the decision maker's assignment example preference information. By simultaneously considering the complexity and discriminative power of the models, two distinct lexicographic optimization-based approaches are developed to derive a representative model for MCS problems with non-monotonic criteria. Eventually, we offer an illustrative example and conduct comprehensive simulation experiments to elaborate the feasibility and validity of the proposed approaches.
A sparse PAC-Bayesian approach for high-dimensional quantile prediction
Quantile regression, a robust method for estimating conditional quantiles, has advanced significantly in fields such as econometrics, statistics, and machine learning. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of covariates exceeds sample size, penalized methods like lasso have been developed to address sparsity challenges. Bayesian methods, initially connected to quantile regression via the asymmetric Laplace likelihood, have also evolved, though issues with posterior variance have led to new approaches, including pseudo/score likelihoods. This paper presents a novel probabilistic machine learning approach for high-dimensional quantile prediction. It uses a pseudo-Bayesian framework with a scaled Student-t prior and Langevin Monte Carlo for efficient computation. The method demonstrates strong theoretical guarantees, through PAC-Bayes bounds, that establish non-asymptotic oracle inequalities, showing minimax-optimal prediction error and adaptability to unknown sparsity. Its effectiveness is validated through simulations and real-world data, where it performs competitively against established frequentist and Bayesian techniques.