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 Uncertainty


Enhancing Preference-based Linear Bandits via Human Response Time

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Binary human choice feedback is widely used in interactive preference learning for its simplicity, but it provides limited information about preference strength. To overcome this limitation, we leverage human response times, which inversely correlate with preference strength, as complementary information. Our work integrates the EZ-diffusion model, which jointly models human choices and response times, into preference-based linear bandits. We introduce a computationally efficient utility estimator that reformulates the utility estimation problem using both choices and response times as a linear regression problem. Theoretical and empirical comparisons with traditional choice-only estimators reveal that for queries with strong preferences ("easy" queries), choices alone provide limited information, while response times offer valuable complementary information about preference strength. As a result, incorporating response times makes easy queries more useful. We demonstrate this advantage in the fixed-budget best-arm identification problem, with simulations based on three real-world datasets, consistently showing accelerated learning when response times are incorporated.


Adaptive Probabilistic Planning for the Uncertain and Dynamic Orienteering Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Orienteering Problem (OP) is a well-studied routing problem that has been extended to incorporate uncertainties, reflecting stochastic or dynamic travel costs, prize-collection costs, and prizes. Existing approaches may, however, be inefficient in real-world applications due to insufficient modeling knowledge and initially unknowable parameters in online scenarios. Thus, we propose the Uncertain and Dynamic Orienteering Problem (UDOP), modeling travel costs as distributions with unknown and time-variant parameters. UDOP also associates uncertain travel costs with dynamic prizes and prize-collection costs for its objective and budget constraints. To address UDOP, we develop an ADaptive Approach for Probabilistic paThs - ADAPT, that iteratively performs 'execution' and 'online planning' based on an initial 'offline' solution. The execution phase updates system status and records online cost observations. The online planner employs a Bayesian approach to adaptively estimate power consumption and optimize path sequence based on safety beliefs. We evaluate ADAPT in a practical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) charging scheduling problem for Wireless Rechargeable Sensor Networks. The UAV must optimize its path to recharge sensor nodes efficiently while managing its energy under uncertain conditions. ADAPT maintains comparable solution quality and computation time while offering superior robustness. Extensive simulations show that ADAPT achieves a 100% Mission Success Rate (MSR) across all tested scenarios, outperforming comparable heuristic-based and frequentist approaches that fail up to 70% (under challenging conditions) and averaging 67% MSR, respectively. This work advances the field of OP with uncertainties, offering a reliable and efficient approach for real-world applications in uncertain and dynamic environments.


On the Convergence of Sigmoid and tanh Fuzzy General Grey Cognitive Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzzy General Grey Cognitive Map (FGGCM) and Fuzzy Grey Cognitive Map (FGCM) are extensions of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) in terms of uncertainty. FGGCM allows for the processing of general grey number with multiple intervals, enabling FCM to better address uncertain situations. Although the convergence of FCM and FGCM has been discussed in many literature, the convergence of FGGCM has not been thoroughly explored. This paper aims to fill this research gap. First, metrics for the general grey number space and its vector space is given and proved using the Minkowski inequality. By utilizing the characteristic that Cauchy sequences are convergent sequences, the completeness of these two space is demonstrated. On this premise, utilizing Banach fixed point theorem and Browder-Gohde-Kirk fixed point theorem, combined with Lagrange's mean value theorem and Cauchy's inequality, deduces the sufficient conditions for FGGCM to converge to a unique fixed point when using tanh and sigmoid functions as activation functions. The sufficient conditions for the kernels and greyness of FGGCM to converge to a unique fixed point are also provided separately. Finally, based on Web Experience and Civil engineering FCM, designed corresponding FGGCM with sigmoid and tanh as activation functions by modifying the weights to general grey numbers. By comparing with the convergence theorems of FCM and FGCM, the effectiveness of the theorems proposed in this paper was verified. It was also demonstrated that the convergence theorems of FCM are special cases of the theorems proposed in this paper. The study for convergence of FGGCM is of great significance for guiding the learning algorithm of FGGCM, which is needed for designing FGGCM with specific fixed points, lays a solid theoretical foundation for the application of FGGCM in fields such as control, prediction, and decision support systems.


K-Fold Causal BART for CATE Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This research aims to propose and evaluate a novel model named K-Fold Causal Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (K-Fold Causal BART) for improved estimation of Average Treatment Effects (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). The study employs synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, including the widely recognized Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) benchmark dataset, to validate the model's performance. Despite promising results in synthetic scenarios, the IHDP dataset reveals that the proposed model is not state-of-the-art for ATE and CATE estimation. Nonetheless, the research provides several novel insights: 1. The ps-BART model is likely the preferred choice for CATE and ATE estimation due to better generalization compared to the other benchmark models - including the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model, which is considered by many the current best model for CATE estimation, 2. The BCF model's performance deteriorates significantly with increasing treatment effect heterogeneity, while the ps-BART model remains robust, 3. Models tend to be overconfident in CATE uncertainty quantification when treatment effect heterogeneity is low, 4. A second K-Fold method is unnecessary for avoiding overfitting in CATE estimation, as it adds computational costs without improving performance, 5. Detailed analysis reveals the importance of understanding dataset characteristics and using nuanced evaluation methods, 6. The conclusion of Curth et al. (2021) that indirect strategies for CATE estimation are superior for the IHDP dataset is contradicted by the results of this research. These findings challenge existing assumptions and suggest directions for future research to enhance causal inference methodologies.


Recursive Nested Filtering for Efficient Amortized Bayesian Experimental Design

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces the Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF), a novel, fully recursive, algorithm for amortized sequential Bayesian experimental design in the non-exchangeable setting. We frame policy optimization as maximum likelihood estimation in a non-Markovian state-space model, achieving (at most) $\mathcal{O}(T^2)$ computational complexity in the number of experiments. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees and introduce a backward sampling algorithm to reduce trajectory degeneracy. IO-NPF offers a practical, extensible, and provably consistent approach to sequential Bayesian experimental design, demonstrating improved efficiency over existing methods.


Intelligent tutoring systems by Bayesian nets with noisy gates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Directed graphical models such as Bayesian nets are often used to implement intelligent tutoring systems able to interact in real-time with learners in a purely automatic way. When coping with such models, keeping a bound on the number of parameters might be important for multiple reasons. First, as these models are typically based on expert knowledge, a huge number of parameters to elicit might discourage practitioners from adopting them. Moreover, the number of model parameters affects the complexity of the inferences, while a fast computation of the queries is needed for real-time feedback. We advocate logical gates with uncertainty for a compact parametrization of the conditional probability tables in the underlying Bayesian net used by tutoring systems. We discuss the semantics of the model parameters to elicit and the assumptions required to apply such approach in this domain. We also derive a dedicated inference scheme to speed up computations.


Variational Search Distributions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop variational search distributions (VSD), a method for finding discrete, combinatorial designs of a rare desired class in a batch sequential manner with a fixed experimental budget. We formalize the requirements and desiderata for this problem and formulate a solution via variational inference that fulfill these. In particular, VSD uses off-the-shelf gradient based optimization routines, and can take advantage of scalable predictive models. We show that VSD can outperform existing baseline methods on a set of real sequence-design problems in various biological systems. We consider a variant of the active search problem (Garnett et al., 2012; Jiang et al., 2017; Vanchinathan et al., 2015), where we wish to find as many members (designs) of a rare desired class in a batch sequential manner with a fixed experimental budget. Examples of this are compounds that could be useful pharmaceutical drugs, or highly active enzymes for catalysing chemical reactions.


Zero-shot Outlier Detection via Prior-data Fitted Networks: Model Selection Bygone!

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Outlier detection (OD) has a vast literature as it finds numerous applications in environmental monitoring, cybersecurity, finance, and medicine to name a few. Being an inherently unsupervised task, model selection is a key bottleneck for OD (both algorithm and hyperparameter selection) without label supervision. There is a long list of techniques to choose from -- both classical algorithms and deep neural architectures -- and while several studies report their hyperparameter sensitivity, the literature is quite slim on unsupervised model selection -- limiting the effective use of OD in practice. In this paper we present FoMo-0D, for zero/0-shot OD exploring a transformative new direction that bypasses the hurdle of model selection altogether (!), thus breaking new ground. The fundamental idea behind FoMo-0D is the Prior-data Fitted Networks, recently introduced by Muller et al.(2022), which trains a Transformer model on a large body of synthetically generated data from a prior data distribution. In essence, FoMo-0D is a pretrained Foundation Model for zero/0-shot OD on tabular data, which can directly predict the (outlier/inlier) label of any test data at inference time, by merely a single forward pass -- making obsolete the need for choosing an algorithm/architecture, tuning its associated hyperparameters, and even training any model parameters when given a new OD dataset. Extensive experiments on 57 public benchmark datasets against 26 baseline methods show that FoMo-0D performs statistically no different from the top 2nd baseline, while significantly outperforming the majority of the baselines, with an average inference time of 7.7 ms per test sample.


Interpretable Responsibility Sharing as a Heuristic for Task and Motion Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article introduces a novel heuristic for Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) named Interpretable Responsibility Sharing (IRS), which enhances planning efficiency in domestic robots by leveraging human-constructed environments and inherent biases. Utilizing auxiliary objects (e.g., trays and pitchers), which are commonly found in household settings, IRS systematically incorporates these elements to simplify and optimize task execution. The heuristic is rooted in the novel concept of Responsibility Sharing (RS), where auxiliary objects share the task's responsibility with the embodied agent, dividing complex tasks into manageable sub-problems. This division not only reflects human usage patterns but also aids robots in navigating and manipulating within human spaces more effectively. By integrating Optimized Rule Synthesis (ORS) for decision-making, IRS ensures that the use of auxiliary objects is both strategic and context-aware, thereby improving the interpretability and effectiveness of robotic planning. Experiments conducted across various household tasks demonstrate that IRS significantly outperforms traditional methods by reducing the effort required in task execution and enhancing the overall decision-making process. This approach not only aligns with human intuitive methods but also offers a scalable solution adaptable to diverse domestic environments. Code is available at https://github.com/asyncs/IRS.


Explainable Malware Analysis: Concepts, Approaches and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) has seen exponential growth in recent years, finding applications in various domains such as finance, medicine, and cybersecurity. Malware remains a significant threat to modern computing, frequently used by attackers to compromise systems. While numerous machine learning-based approaches for malware detection achieve high performance, they often lack transparency and fail to explain their predictions. This is a critical drawback in malware analysis, where understanding the rationale behind detections is essential for security analysts to verify and disseminate information. Explainable AI (XAI) addresses this issue by maintaining high accuracy while producing models that provide clear, understandable explanations for their decisions. In this survey, we comprehensively review the current state-of-the-art ML-based malware detection techniques and popular XAI approaches. Additionally, we discuss research implementations and the challenges of explainable malware analysis. This theoretical survey serves as an entry point for researchers interested in XAI applications in malware detection. By analyzing recent advancements in explainable malware analysis, we offer a broad overview of the progress in this field, positioning our work as the first to extensively cover XAI methods for malware classification and detection.