The price elasticity of demand can be estimated from observational data using instrumental variables (IV). However, naive IV estimators may be inconsistent in settings with autocorrelated time series. We argue that causal time graphs can simplify IV identification and help select consistent estimators. To do so, we propose to first model the equilibrium condition by an unobserved confounder, deriving a directed acyclic graph (DAG) while maintaining the assumption of a simultaneous determination of prices and quantities. We then exploit recent advances in graphical inference to derive valid IV estimators, including estimators that achieve consistency by simultaneously estimating nuisance effects. We further argue that observing significant differences between the estimates of presumably valid estimators can help to reject false model assumptions, thereby improving our understanding of underlying economic dynamics. We apply this approach to the German electricity market, estimating the price elasticity of demand on simulated and real-world data. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural autocorrelation in IV-based analysis.

Probabilistic regression models trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), can sometimes overestimate variance to an unacceptable degree. This is mostly problematic in the multivariate domain. While univariate models often optimize the popular Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), in the multivariate domain, no such alternative to MLE has yet been widely accepted. The Energy Score - the most investigated alternative - notoriously lacks closed-form expressions and sensitivity to the correlation between target variables. In this paper, we propose Conditional CRPS: a multivariate strictly proper scoring rule that extends CRPS. We show that closed-form expressions exist for popular distributions and illustrate their sensitivity to correlation. We then show in a variety of experiments on both synthetic and real data, that Conditional CRPS often outperforms MLE, and produces results comparable to state-of-the-art non-parametric models, such as Distributional Random Forest (DRF).

Testing a hypothesized causal model against observational data is a key prerequisite for many causal inference tasks. A natural approach is to test whether the conditional independence relations (CIs) assumed in the model hold in the data. While a model can assume exponentially many CIs (with respect to the number of variables), testing all of them is both impractical and unnecessary. Causal graphs, which encode these CIs in polynomial space, give rise to local Markov properties that enable model testing with a significantly smaller subset of CIs. Model testing based on local properties requires an algorithm to list the relevant CIs. However, existing algorithms for realistic settings with hidden variables and non-parametric distributions can take exponential time to produce even a single CI constraint. In this paper, we introduce the c-component local Markov property (C-LMP) for causal graphs with hidden variables. Since C-LMP can still invoke an exponential number of CIs, we develop a polynomial delay algorithm to list these CIs in poly-time intervals. To our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that enables poly-delay testing of CIs in causal graphs with hidden variables against arbitrary data distributions. Experiments on real-world and synthetic data demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm.

Learning Bayesian Networks (BNs) from high-dimensional data is a complex and time-consuming task. Although there are approaches based on horizontal (instances) or vertical (variables) partitioning in the literature, none can guarantee the same theoretical properties as the Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) algorithm, except those based on the GES algorithm itself. In this paper, we propose a directed ring-based distributed method that uses GES as the local learning algorithm, ensuring the same theoretical properties as GES but requiring less CPU time. The method involves partitioning the set of possible edges and constraining each processor in the ring to work only with its received subset. The global learning process is an iterative algorithm that carries out several rounds until a convergence criterion is met. In each round, each processor receives a BN from its predecessor in the ring, fuses it with its own BN model, and uses the result as the starting solution for a local learning process constrained to its set of edges. Subsequently, it sends the model obtained to its successor in the ring. Experiments were carried out on three large domains (400-1000 variables), demonstrating our proposal's effectiveness compared to GES and its fast version (fGES).

The design of food diets in the context of animal nutrition is a complex problem that aims to develop cost-effective formulations while balancing minimum nutritional content. Traditional approaches based on theoretical models of metabolic responses and concentrations of digestible energy in raw materials face limitations in incorporating zootechnical or environmental variables affecting the performance of animals and including multiple objectives aligned with sustainable development policies. Recently, multi-objective Bayesian optimization has been proposed as a promising heuristic alternative able to deal with the combination of multiple sources of information, multiple and diverse objectives, and with an intrinsic capacity to deal with uncertainty in the measurements that could be related to variability in the nutritional content of raw materials. However, Bayesian optimization encounters difficulties in high-dimensional search spaces, leading to exploration predominantly at the boundaries. This work analyses a strategy to split the search space into regions that provide local candidates termed multi-objective regionalized Bayesian optimization as an alternative to improve the quality of the Pareto set and Pareto front approximation provided by BO in the context of swine diet design. Results indicate that this regionalized approach produces more diverse non-dominated solutions compared to the standard multi-objective Bayesian optimization. Besides, the regionalized strategy was four times more effective in finding solutions that outperform those identified by a stochastic programming approach referenced in the literature. Experiments using batches of query candidate solutions per iteration show that the optimization process can also be accelerated without compromising the quality of the Pareto set approximation during the initial, most critical phase of optimization.

Fairness metrics are used to assess discrimination and disparity of the chances between yellow and blue candidates of getting bias in decision-making processes across various domains, including accepted. Intuitively, we are more certain about the decisions machine learning models and human decision-makers in real-world being made by company A than company B. In the case of company applications. This involves calculating the disparities between probabilistic B, the rejection of blue candidates can be attributed to random outcomes among social groups, such as acceptance rates circumstances. In this case, we would judge company A as more discriminatory between male and female applicants. However, traditional fairness than company B because we are more certain that A metrics do not account for the uncertainty in these processes and is unfair and very uncertain about the unfairness of B. But if both lack of comparability when two decision-makers exhibit the same companies accepted all applicants, the disparity would be 0%, and disparity. Using Bayesian statistics, we quantify the uncertainty of we would conversely judge B as more discriminatory than A. This is the disparity to enhance discrimination assessments. We represent because we are certain that A is fair, while we are uncertain about the each decision-maker, whether a machine learning model or a human, fairness of B. Lastly, when comparing between uncertain fair and uncertain by its disparity and the corresponding uncertainty in that disparity.

Much of Bayesian inference centers around the design of estimators for inverse problems which are optimal assuming the data comes from a known prior. But what do these optimality guarantees mean if the prior is unknown? In recent years, algorithm unrolling has emerged as deep learning's answer to this age-old question: design a neural network whose layers can in principle simulate iterations of inference algorithms and train on data generated by the unknown prior. Despite its empirical success, however, it has remained unclear whether this method can provably recover the performance of its optimal, prior-aware counterparts. In this work, we prove the first rigorous learning guarantees for neural networks based on unrolling approximate message passing (AMP). For compressed sensing, we prove that when trained on data drawn from a product prior, the layers of the network approximately converge to the same denoisers used in Bayes AMP. We also provide extensive numerical experiments for compressed sensing and rank-one matrix estimation demonstrating the advantages of our unrolled architecture - in addition to being able to obliviously adapt to general priors, it exhibits improvements over Bayes AMP in more general settings of low dimensions, non-Gaussian designs, and non-product priors.

This paper illustrates the central role of loss functions in data-driven decision making, providing a comprehensive survey on their influence in cost-sensitive classification (CSC) and reinforcement learning (RL). We demonstrate how different regression loss functions affect the sample efficiency and adaptivity of value-based decision making algorithms. Across multiple settings, we prove that algorithms using the binary cross-entropy loss achieve first-order bounds scaling with the optimal policy's cost and are much more efficient than the commonly used squared loss. Moreover, we prove that distributional algorithms using the maximum likelihood loss achieve second-order bounds scaling with the policy variance and are even sharper than first-order bounds. This in particular proves the benefits of distributional RL. We hope that this paper serves as a guide analyzing decision making algorithms with varying loss functions, and can inspire the reader to seek out better loss functions to improve any decision making algorithm.

Data augmentation is known to contribute significantly to the robustness of machine learning models. In most instances, data augmentation is utilized during the training phase. Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) is a technique that instead leverages these data augmentations during the testing phase to achieve robust predictions. More precisely, TTA averages the predictions of multiple data augmentations of an instance to produce a final prediction. Although the effectiveness of TTA has been empirically reported, it can be expected that the predictive performance achieved will depend on the set of data augmentation methods used during testing. In particular, the data augmentation methods applied should make different contributions to performance. That is, it is anticipated that there may be differing degrees of contribution in the set of data augmentation methods used for TTA, and these could have a negative impact on prediction performance. In this study, we consider a weighted version of the TTA based on the contribution of each data augmentation. Some variants of TTA can be regarded as considering the problem of determining the appropriate weighting. We demonstrate that the determination of the coefficients of this weighted TTA can be formalized in a variational Bayesian framework. We also show that optimizing the weights to maximize the marginal log-likelihood suppresses candidates of unwanted data augmentations at the test phase.

Cardiovascular disease (CVDs) is a rapidly rising global concern due to unhealthy diets, lack of physical activity, and other factors. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), primary risk factors include elevated blood pressure, glucose, blood lipids, and obesity. Recent research has focused on accurate and timely disease prediction to reduce risk and fatalities, often relying on predictive models trained on large datasets, which require intensive training. An intelligent system for CVDs patients could greatly assist in making informed decisions by effectively analyzing health parameters. Complex Event Processing (CEP) has emerged as a valuable method for solving real-time challenges by aggregating patterns of interest and their causes and effects on end users. In this work, we propose a fuzzy rule-based system for monitoring clinical data to provide real-time decision support. We designed fuzzy rules based on clinical and WHO standards to ensure accurate predictions. Our integrated approach uses Apache Kafka and Spark for data streaming, and the Siddhi CEP engine for event processing. Additionally, we pass numerous cardiovascular disease-related parameters through CEP engines to ensure fast and reliable prediction decisions. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we simulated real-time, unseen data to predict cardiovascular disease. Using synthetic data (1000 samples), we categorized it into "Very Low Risk, Low Risk, Medium Risk, High Risk, and Very High Risk." Validation results showed that 20% of samples were categorized as very low risk, 15-45% as low risk, 35-65% as medium risk, 55-85% as high risk, and 75% as very high risk.