A significant challenge in many fields of science and engineering is making sense of time-dependent measurement data by recovering governing equations in the form of differential equations. We focus on finding parsimonious ordinary differential equation (ODE) models for nonlinear, noisy, and non-autonomous dynamical systems and propose a machine learning method for data-driven system identification. While many methods tackle noisy and limited data, non-stationarity - where differential equation parameters change over time - has received less attention. Our method, dynamic SINDy, combines variational inference with SINDy (sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics) to model time-varying coefficients of sparse ODEs. This framework allows for uncertainty quantification of ODE coefficients, expanding on previous methods for autonomous systems. These coefficients are then interpreted as latent variables and added to the system to obtain an autonomous dynamical model. We validate our approach using synthetic data, including nonlinear oscillators and the Lorenz system, and apply it to neuronal activity data from C. elegans. Dynamic SINDy uncovers a global nonlinear model, showing it can handle real, noisy, and chaotic datasets. We aim to apply our method to a variety of problems, specifically dynamic systems with complex time-dependent parameters.

In this paper, we propose a framework for efficient Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) in the context of time-series, focusing on enhancing both parameter efficiency and data-sample utilization. Our approach introduces an improved paradigm for source-model preparation and target-side adaptation, aiming to enhance training efficiency during target adaptation. Specifically, we reparameterize the source model's weights in a Tucker-style decomposed manner, factorizing the model into a compact form during the source model preparation phase. During target-side adaptation, only a subset of these decomposed factors is fine-tuned, leading to significant improvements in training efficiency. We demonstrate using PAC Bayesian analysis that this selective fine-tuning strategy implicitly regularizes the adaptation process by constraining the model's learning capacity. Furthermore, this re-parameterization reduces the overall model size and enhances inference efficiency, making the approach particularly well suited for resource-constrained devices. Additionally, we demonstrate that our framework is compatible with various SFDA methods and achieves significant computational efficiency, reducing the number of fine-tuned parameters and inference overhead in terms of MACs by over 90% while maintaining model performance.

A fully Bayesian treatment of complicated predictive models (such as deep neural networks) would enable rigorous uncertainty quantification and the automation of higher-level tasks including model selection. However, the intractability of sampling Bayesian posteriors over many parameters inhibits the use of Bayesian methods where they are most needed. Thermodynamic computing has emerged as a paradigm for accelerating operations used in machine learning, such as matrix inversion, and is based on the mapping of Langevin equations to the dynamics of noisy physical systems. Hence, it is natural to consider the implementation of Langevin sampling algorithms on thermodynamic devices. In this work we propose electronic analog devices that sample from Bayesian posteriors by realizing Langevin dynamics physically. Circuit designs are given for sampling the posterior of a Gaussian-Gaussian model and for Bayesian logistic regression, and are validated by simulations. It is shown, under reasonable assumptions, that the Bayesian posteriors for these models can be sampled in time scaling with $\ln(d)$, where $d$ is dimension. For the Gaussian-Gaussian model, the energy cost is shown to scale with $ d \ln(d)$. These results highlight the potential for fast, energy-efficient Bayesian inference using thermodynamic computing.

LLMs are ideal for decision-making due to their ability to reason over long contexts and identify critical factors. However, challenges arise when processing transcripts of spoken speech describing complex scenarios. These transcripts often contain ungrammatical or incomplete sentences, repetitions, hedging, and vagueness. For example, during a company's earnings call, an executive might project a positive revenue outlook to reassure investors, despite significant uncertainty regarding future earnings. It is crucial for LLMs to incorporate this uncertainty systematically when making decisions. In this paper, we introduce DeFine, a new framework that constructs probabilistic factor profiles from complex scenarios. DeFine then integrates these profiles with analogical reasoning, leveraging insights from similar past experiences to guide LLMs in making critical decisions in novel situations. Our framework separates the tasks of quantifying uncertainty in complex scenarios and incorporating it into LLM decision-making. This approach is particularly useful in fields such as medical consultations, negotiations, and political debates, where making decisions under uncertainty is vital.

BBS leverages machine learning/statistical techniques to estimate the probability density of the search space and modifies the bisection step to split based on probability density rather than the traditional midpoint, allowing for the learned distribution of the search space to guide the search algorithm. Search space density estimation can flexibly be performed using supervised probabilistic machine learning techniques (e.g., Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, quantile regression) or unsupervised learning algorithms (e.g., Gaussian mixture models, kernel density estimation (KDE), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)). We demonstrate significant efficiency gains of using BBS on both simulated data across a variety of distributions and in a real-world binary search use case of probing channel balances in the Bitcoin Lightning Network, for which we have deployed the BBS algorithm in a production setting. The concept of organizing data for efficient searching has ancient roots. One of the earliest known examples is the Inakibit-Anu tablet from Babylon (c. Similar sorting techniques were evident in name lists discovered on the Aegean Islands.

We introduce the first method of uncertainty quantification in the domain of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, specifically focusing on (Higher Order) ReLUKANs to enhance computational efficiency given the computational demands of Bayesian methods. The method we propose is general in nature, providing access to both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. It is also capable of generalization to other various basis functions. We validate our method through a series of closure tests, including simple one-dimensional functions and application to the domain of (Stochastic) Partial Differential Equations. Referring to the latter, we demonstrate the method's ability to correctly identify functional dependencies introduced through the inclusion of a stochastic term. The code supporting this work can be found at https://github.com/wmdataphys/Bayesian-HR-KAN

The expanding complexity and dimensionality in the search space can adversely affect inductive learning in fuzzy rule classifiers, thus impacting the scalability and accuracy of fuzzy systems. This research specifically addresses the challenge of diabetic classification by employing the Brain Storm Optimization (BSO) algorithm to propose a novel fuzzy system that redefines rule generation for this context. An exponential model is integrated into the standard BSO algorithm to enhance rule derivation, tailored specifically for diabetes-related data. The innovative fuzzy system is then applied to classification tasks involving diabetic datasets, demonstrating a substantial improvement in classification accuracy, as evidenced by our experiments.

In this work, we explore the theoretical properties of conditional deep generative models under the statistical framework of distribution regression where the response variable lies in a high-dimensional ambient space but concentrates around a potentially lower-dimensional manifold. More specifically, we study the large-sample properties of a likelihood-based approach for estimating these models. Our results lead to the convergence rate of a sieve maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimating the conditional distribution (and its devolved counterpart) of the response given predictors in the Hellinger (Wasserstein) metric. Our rates depend solely on the intrinsic dimension and smoothness of the true conditional distribution. These findings provide an explanation of why conditional deep generative models can circumvent the curse of dimensionality from the perspective of statistical foundations and demonstrate that they can learn a broader class of nearly singular conditional distributions. Our analysis also emphasizes the importance of introducing a small noise perturbation to the data when they are supported sufficiently close to a manifold. Finally, in our numerical studies, we demonstrate the effective implementation of the proposed approach using both synthetic and real-world datasets, which also provide complementary validation to our theoretical findings.

Traditionally, neural network training has been primarily viewed as an approximation of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). This interpretation originated in a time when training for multiple epochs on small datasets was common and performance was data bound; but it falls short in the era of large-scale single-epoch trainings ushered in by large self-supervised setups, like language models. In this new setup, performance is compute-bound, but data is readily available. As models became more powerful, in-context learning (ICL), i.e., learning in a single forward-pass based on the context, emerged as one of the dominant paradigms. In this paper, we argue that a more useful interpretation of neural network behavior in this era is as an approximation of the true posterior, as defined by the data-generating process. We demonstrate this interpretations' power for ICL and its usefulness to predict generalizations to previously unseen tasks. We show how models become robust in-context learners by effectively composing knowledge from their training data. We illustrate this with experiments that reveal surprising generalizations, all explicable through the exact posterior. Finally, we show the inherent constraints of the generalization capabilities of posteriors and the limitations of neural networks in approximating these posteriors.

Amortized inference is the task of training a parametric model, such as a neural network, to approximate a distribution with a given unnormalized density where exact sampling is intractable. When sampling is implemented as a sequential decision-making process, reinforcement learning (RL) methods, such as generative flow networks, can be used to train the sampling policy. Off-policy RL training facilitates the discovery of diverse, high-reward candidates, but existing methods still face challenges in efficient exploration. We propose to use an adaptive training distribution (the Teacher) to guide the training of the primary amortized sampler (the Student) by prioritizing high-loss regions. The Teacher, an auxiliary behavior model, is trained to sample high-error regions of the Student and can generalize across unexplored modes, thereby enhancing mode coverage by providing an efficient training curriculum. We validate the effectiveness of this approach in a synthetic environment designed to present an exploration challenge, two diffusion-based sampling tasks, and four biochemical discovery tasks demonstrating its ability to improve sample efficiency and mode coverage.