Uncertainty
Variational Inference for Gaussian Process Models with Linear Complexity
Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data, standard strategies for sparsifying the model can prevent the approximation of complex functions. In this work, we propose a novel variational Gaussian process model that decouples the representation of mean and covariance functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that this new parametrization generalizes previous models. Furthermore, it yields a variational inference problem that can be solved by stochastic gradient ascent with time and space complexity that is only linear in the number of mean function parameters, regardless of the choice of kernels, likelihoods, and inducing points. This strategy makes the adoption of largescale expressive Gaussian process models possible. We run several experiments on regression tasks and show that this decoupled approach greatly outperforms previous sparse variational Gaussian process inference procedures.
Universal consistency and minimax rates for online Mondrian Forests
Jaouad Mourtada, Stéphane Gaïffas, Erwan Scornet
We establish the consistency of an algorithm of Mondrian Forests [LRT14, LRT16], a randomized classification algorithm that can be implemented online. First, we amend the original Mondrian Forest algorithm proposed in [LRT14], that considers a fixed lifetime parameter. Indeed, the fact that this parameter is fixed hinders the statistical consistency of the original procedure.
Model-based Bayesian inference of neural activity and connectivity from all-optical interrogation of a neural circuit
Laurence Aitchison, Lloyd Russell, Adam M. Packer, Jinyao Yan, Philippe Castonguay, Michael Hausser, Srinivas C. Turaga
Population activity measurement by calcium imaging can be combined with cellular resolution optogenetic activity perturbations to enable the mapping of neural connectivity in vivo. This requires accurate inference of perturbed and unperturbed neural activity from calcium imaging measurements, which are noisy and indirect, and can also be contaminated by photostimulation artifacts. We have developed a new fully Bayesian approach to jointly inferring spiking activity and neural connectivity from in vivo all-optical perturbation experiments. In contrast to standard approaches that perform spike inference and analysis in two separate maximum-likelihood phases, our joint model is able to propagate uncertainty in spike inference to the inference of connectivity and vice versa. We use the framework of variational autoencoders to model spiking activity using discrete latent variables, low-dimensional latent common input, and sparse spike-and-slab generalized linear coupling between neurons.
Overcoming Catastrophic Forgetting by Incremental Moment Matching
Sang-Woo Lee, Jin-Hwa Kim, Jaehyun Jun, Jung-Woo Ha, Byoung-Tak Zhang
Catastrophic forgetting is a problem of neural networks that loses the information of the first task after training the second task. Here, we propose a method, i.e. incremental moment matching (IMM), to resolve this problem. IMM incrementally matches the moment of the posterior distribution of the neural network which is trained on the first and the second task, respectively. To make the search space of posterior parameter smooth, the IMM procedure is complemented by various transfer learning techniques including weight transfer, L2-norm of the old and the new parameter, and a variant of dropout with the old parameter. We analyze our approach on a variety of datasets including the MNIST, CIFAR-10, Caltech-UCSD-Birds, and Lifelog datasets. The experimental results show that IMM achieves state-of-the-art performance by balancing the information between an old and a new network.
Generative Local Metric Learning for Kernel Regression
Yung-Kyun Noh, Masashi Sugiyama, Kee-Eung Kim, Frank Park, Daniel D. Lee
This paper shows how metric learning can be used with Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression. Compared with standard approaches, such as bandwidth selection, we show how metric learning can significantly reduce the mean square error (MSE) in kernel regression, particularly for high-dimensional data. We propose a method for efficiently learning a good metric function based upon analyzing the performance of the NW estimator for Gaussian-distributed data. A key feature of our approach is that the NW estimator with a learned metric uses information from both the global and local structure of the training data. Theoretical and empirical results confirm that the learned metric can considerably reduce the bias and MSE for kernel regression even when the data are not confined to Gaussian.
Convergence rates of a partition based Bayesian multivariate density estimation method
Linxi Liu, Dangna Li, Wing Hung Wong
We study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are obtained by adaptively partitioning the sample space. Under a suitable prior, we analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution, and demonstrate that the rate does not directly depend on the dimension of the problem in several special cases. Another advantage of this class of Bayesian density estimators is that it can adapt to the unknown smoothness of the true density function, thus achieving the optimal convergence rate without artificial conditions on the density.
Estimating Mutual Information for Discrete-Continuous Mixtures
Weihao Gao, Sreeram Kannan, Sewoong Oh, Pramod Viswanath
Estimation of mutual information from observed samples is a basic primitive in machine learning, useful in several learning tasks including correlation mining, information bottleneck, Chow-Liu tree, and conditional independence testing in (causal) graphical models. While mutual information is a quantity well-defined for general probability spaces, estimators have been developed only in the special case of discrete or continuous pairs of random variables. Most of these estimators operate using the 3H-principle, i.e., by calculating the three (differential) entropies of X, Y and the pair (X, Y). However, in general mixture spaces, such individual entropies are not well defined, even though mutual information is. In this paper, we develop a novel estimator for estimating mutual information in discrete-continuous mixtures. We prove the consistency of this estimator theoretically as well as demonstrate its excellent empirical performance. This problem is relevant in a wide-array of applications, where some variables are discrete, some continuous, and others are a mixture between continuous and discrete components.
On the Model Shrinkage Effect of Gamma Process Edge Partition Models
Iku Ohama, Issei Sato, Takuya Kida, Hiroki Arimura
The edge partition model (EPM) is a fundamental Bayesian nonparametric model for extracting an overlapping structure from binary matrix. The EPM adopts a gamma process (ΓP) prior to automatically shrink the number of active atoms. However, we empirically found that the model shrinkage of the EPM does not typically work appropriately and leads to an overfitted solution. An analysis of the expectation of the EPM's intensity function suggested that the gamma priors for the EPM hyperparameters disturb the model shrinkage effect of the internal ΓP. In order to ensure that the model shrinkage effect of the EPM works in an appropriate manner, we proposed two novel generative constructions of the EPM: CEPM incorporating constrained gamma priors, and DEPM incorporating Dirichlet priors instead of the gamma priors. Furthermore, all DEPM's model parameters including the infinite atoms of the ΓP prior could be marginalized out, and thus it was possible to derive a truly infinite DEPM (IDEPM) that can be efficiently inferred using a collapsed Gibbs sampler. We experimentally confirmed that the model shrinkage of the proposed models works well and that the IDEPM indicated state-of-the-art performance in generalization ability, link prediction accuracy, mixing efficiency, and convergence speed.
Beyond normality: Learning sparse probabilistic graphical models in the non-Gaussian setting
Rebecca E. Morrison, Ricardo Baptista, Youssef Marzouk
We present an algorithm to identify sparse dependence structure in continuous and non-Gaussian probability distributions, given a corresponding set of data. The conditional independence structure of an arbitrary distribution can be represented as an undirected graph (or Markov random field), but most algorithms for learning this structure are restricted to the discrete or Gaussian cases. Our new approach allows for more realistic and accurate descriptions of the distribution in question, and in turn better estimates of its sparse Markov structure. Sparsity in the graph is of interest as it can accelerate inference, improve sampling methods, and reveal important dependencies between variables. The algorithm relies on exploiting the connection between the sparsity of the graph and the sparsity of transport maps, which deterministically couple one probability measure to another.