Lithium-ion batteries are a key energy storage technology driving revolutions in mobile electronics, electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. Capacity retention is a vital performance measure that is frequently utilized to assess whether these batteries have approached their end-of-life. Machine learning (ML) offers a powerful tool for predicting capacity degradation based on past data, and, potentially, prior physical knowledge, but the degree to which an ML prediction can be trusted is of significant practical importance in situations where consequential decisions must be made based on battery state of health. This study explores the efficacy of fully Bayesian machine learning in forecasting battery health with the quantification of uncertainty in its predictions. Specifically, we implemented three probabilistic ML approaches and evaluated the accuracy of their predictions and uncertainty estimates: a standard Gaussian process (GP), a structured Gaussian process (sGP), and a fully Bayesian neural network (BNN). In typical applications of GP and sGP, their hyperparameters are learned from a single sample while, in contrast, BNNs are typically pre-trained on an existing dataset to learn the weight distributions before being used for inference. This difference in methodology gives the BNN an advantage in learning global trends in a dataset and makes BNNs a good choice when training data is available. However, we show that pre-training can also be leveraged for GP and sGP approaches to learn the prior distributions of the hyperparameters and that in the case of the pre-trained sGP, similar accuracy and improved uncertainty estimation compared to the BNN can be achieved. This approach offers a framework for a broad range of probabilistic machine learning scenarios where past data is available and can be used to learn priors for (hyper)parameters of probabilistic ML models.

In this work, we tackle a challenging and extreme form of subpopulation shift, which is termed compositional shift. Under compositional shifts, some combinations of attributes are totally absent from the training distribution but present in the test distribution. We model the data with flexible additive energy distributions, where each energy term represents an attribute, and derive a simple alternative to empirical risk minimization termed compositional risk minimization (CRM). We first train an additive energy classifier to predict the multiple attributes and then adjust this classifier to tackle compositional shifts. We provide an extensive theoretical analysis of CRM, where we show that our proposal extrapolates to special affine hulls of seen attribute combinations. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets confirms the improved robustness of CRM compared to other methods from the literature designed to tackle various forms of subpopulation shifts.

SHAP values are a popular local feature-attribution method widely used in interpretable and explainable AI. We tackle the problem of efficiently computing these values. We cover both the model-agnostic (black-box) setting, where one only has query access to the model and also the case of (ensembles of) trees where one has access to the structure of the tree. For both the black-box and the tree setting we propose a two-stage approach for estimating SHAP values. Our algorithm's first step harnesses recent results showing that many real-world predictors have a spectral bias that allows us to either exactly represent (in the case of ensembles of decision trees), or efficiently approximate them (in the case of neural networks) using a compact Fourier representation. In the second step of the algorithm, we use the Fourier representation to exactly compute SHAP values. The second step is computationally very cheap because firstly, the representation is compact and secondly, we prove that there exists a closed-form expression for SHAP values for the Fourier basis functions. Furthermore, the expression we derive effectively linearizes the computation into a simple summation and is amenable to parallelization on multiple cores or a GPU. Since the function approximation (first step) is only done once, it allows us to produce Shapley values in an amortized way. We show speedups compared to relevant baseline methods equal levels of accuracy for both the tree and black-box settings. Moreover, this approach introduces a reliable and fine-grained continuous trade-off between computation and accuracy through the sparsity of the Fourier approximation, a feature previously unavailable in all black-box methods.

In reinforcement learning, if the agent's reward differs from the designers' true utility, even only rarely, the state distribution resulting from the agent's policy can be very bad, in theory and in practice. When RL policies would devolve into undesired behavior, a common countermeasure is KL regularization to a trusted policy ("Don't do anything I wouldn't do"). All current cutting-edge language models are RL agents that are KL-regularized to a "base policy" that is purely predictive. Unfortunately, we demonstrate that when this base policy is a Bayesian predictive model of a trusted policy, the KL constraint is no longer reliable for controlling the behavior of an advanced RL agent. We demonstrate this theoretically using algorithmic information theory, and while systems today are too weak to exhibit this theorized failure precisely, we RL-finetune a language model and find evidence that our formal results are plausibly relevant in practice. We also propose a theoretical alternative that avoids this problem by replacing the "Don't do anything I wouldn't do" principle with "Don't do anything I mightn't do".

With the growing importance of customer service in contemporary business, recognizing the intents behind service dialogues has become essential for the strategic success of enterprises. However, the nature of dialogue data varies significantly across different scenarios, and implementing an intent parser for a specific domain often involves tedious feature engineering and a heavy workload of data labeling. In this paper, we propose a novel Neural-Bayesian Program Learning model named Dialogue-Intent Parser (DI-Parser), which specializes in intent parsing under data-hungry settings and offers promising performance improvements. DI-Parser effectively utilizes data from multiple sources in a "Learning to Learn" manner and harnesses the "wisdom of the crowd" through few-shot learning capabilities on human-annotated datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that DI-Parser outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models and offers practical advantages for industrial-scale applications.

Long-tailed semi-supervised learning poses a significant challenge in training models with limited labeled data exhibiting a long-tailed label distribution. Current state-of-the-art LTSSL approaches heavily rely on high-quality pseudo-labels for large-scale unlabeled data. However, these methods often neglect the impact of representations learned by the neural network and struggle with real-world unlabeled data, which typically follows a different distribution than labeled data. This paper introduces a novel probabilistic framework that unifies various recent proposals in long-tail learning. Our framework derives the class-balanced contrastive loss through Gaussian kernel density estimation. We introduce a continuous contrastive learning method, CCL, extending our framework to unlabeled data using reliable and smoothed pseudo-labels. By progressively estimating the underlying label distribution and optimizing its alignment with model predictions, we tackle the diverse distribution of unlabeled data in real-world scenarios. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets with varying unlabeled data distributions demonstrate that CCL consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, achieving over 4% improvement on the ImageNet-127 dataset. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zhouzihao11/CCL

Event knowledge graphs (EKG) extend the classical notion of a trace to capture multiple, interacting views of a process execution. In this paper, we tackle the open problem of automating EKG discovery from uncurated data through a principled, probabilistic framing based on the outcome space resulting from featured-derived partial orders on events. From this, we derive an EKG discovery algorithm based upon statistical inference rather than an ad-hoc or heuristic-based strategy, or relying on manual analysis from domain experts. This approach comes at the computational cost of exploring a large, non-convex hypothesis space. In particular, solving the maximum likelihood term involves counting the number of linear extensions of posets, which in general is #P-complete. Fortunately, bound estimates suffice for model comparison, and admit incorporation into a bespoke branch-and-bound algorithm. We show that the posterior probability as defined is antitonic w.r.t. search depth for branching rules that are monotonic w.r.t. model inclusion. This allows pruning of large portions of the search space, which we show experimentally leads to rapid convergence toward optimal solutions that are consistent with manually built EKGs.

This paper has taken into advantage the relationship between Fuzzy Relation Equations (FRE) and Concept Lattices in order to introduce a procedure to reduce a FRE, without losing information. Specifically, attribute reduction theory in property-oriented and object-oriented concept lattices has been considered in order to present a mechanism for detecting redundant equations. As a first consequence, the computation of the whole solution set of a solvable FRE is reduced. Moreover, we will also introduce a novel method for computing approximate solutions of unsolvable FRE related to a (real) dataset with uncertainty/imprecision data.

Patient trajectories from electronic health records are widely used to predict potential outcomes of treatments over time, which then allows to personalize care. Yet, existing neural methods for this purpose have a key limitation: while some adjust for time-varying confounding, these methods assume that the time series are recorded in discrete time. In other words, they are constrained to settings where measurements and treatments are conducted at fixed time steps, even though this is unrealistic in medical practice. In this work, we aim to predict potential outcomes in continuous time. The latter is of direct practical relevance because it allows for modeling patient trajectories where measurements and treatments take place at arbitrary, irregular timestamps. We thus propose a new method called stabilized continuous time inverse propensity network (SCIP-Net). For this, we further derive stabilized inverse propensity weights for robust prediction of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, our SCIP-Net is the first neural method that performs proper adjustments for time-varying confounding in continuous time.

Real-world data often violates the equal-variance assumption (homoscedasticity), making it essential to account for heteroscedastic noise in causal discovery. In this work, we explore heteroscedastic symmetric noise models (HSNMs), where the effect $Y$ is modeled as $Y = f(X) + \sigma(X)N$, with $X$ as the cause and $N$ as independent noise following a symmetric distribution. We introduce a novel criterion for identifying HSNMs based on the skewness of the score (i.e., the gradient of the log density) of the data distribution. This criterion establishes a computationally tractable measurement that is zero in the causal direction but nonzero in the anticausal direction, enabling the causal direction discovery. We extend this skewness-based criterion to the multivariate setting and propose SkewScore, an algorithm that handles heteroscedastic noise without requiring the extraction of exogenous noise. We also conduct a case study on the robustness of SkewScore in a bivariate model with a latent confounder, providing theoretical insights into its performance. Empirical studies further validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.