To analyze a collection of interconnected documents, relational topic models (RTMs) have been developed to describe both the link structure and document content, exploring their underlying relationships via a single-layer latent representation with limited expressive capability. To better utilize the document network, we first propose graph Poisson factor analysis (GPFA) that constructs a probabilistic model for interconnected documents and also provides closed-form Gibbs sampling update equations, moving beyond sophisticated approximate assumptions of existing RTMs. Extending GPFA, we develop a novel hierarchical RTM named graph Poisson gamma belief network (GPGBN), and further introduce two different Weibull distribution based variational graph auto-encoders for efficient model inference and effective network information aggregation. Experimental results demonstrate that our models extract high-quality hierarchical latent document representations, leading to improved performance over baselines on various graph analytic tasks.

When faced with distribution shift at test time, deep neural networks often make inaccurate predictions with unreliable uncertainty estimates.While improving the robustness of neural networks is one promising approach to mitigate this issue, an appealing alternate to robustifying networks against all possible test-time shifts is to instead directly adapt them to unlabeled inputs from the particular distribution shift we encounter at test time.However, this poses a challenging question: in the standard Bayesian model for supervised learning, unlabeled inputs are conditionally independent of model parameters when the labels are unobserved, so what can unlabeled data tell us about the model parameters at test-time? In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model that provides for a well-defined relationship between unlabeled inputs under distributional shift and model parameters, and show how approximate inference in this model can be instantiated with a simple regularized entropy minimization procedure at test-time. We evaluate our method on a variety of distribution shifts for image classification, including image corruptions, natural distribution shifts, and domain adaptation settings, and show that our method improves both accuracy and uncertainty estimation.

We introduce manifold-learning flows (ℳ-flows), a new class of generative models that simultaneously learn the data manifold as well as a tractable probability density on that manifold. Combining aspects of normalizing flows, GANs, autoencoders, and energy-based models, they have the potential to represent data sets with a manifold structure more faithfully and provide handles on dimensionality reduction, denoising, and out-of-distribution detection. We argue why such models should not be trained by maximum likelihood alone and present a new training algorithm that separates manifold and density updates. In a range of experiments we demonstrate how ℳ-flows learn the data manifold and allow for better inference than standard flows in the ambient data space.

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define generalised filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference under model misspecification. In doing so, we arrive at principled procedures for robust inference against observation contamination by utilising the \beta -divergence. Operationalising the proposed framework is made possible via sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC), where the standard particle methods, and their associated convergence results, are readily adapted to the new setting. We demonstrate our approach to object tracking and Gaussian process regression problems, and observe improved performance over standard filtering algorithms.

Safety in terms of collision avoidance for multi-robot systems is a difficult challenge under uncertainty, non-determinism, and lack of complete information. This paper aims to propose a collision avoidance method that accounts for both measurement uncertainty and motion uncertainty. In particular, we propose Probabilistic Safety Barrier Certificates (PrSBC) using Control Barrier Functions to define the space of admissible control actions that are probabilistically safe with formally provable theoretical guarantee. By formulating the chance constrained safety set into deterministic control constraints with PrSBC, the method entails minimally modifying an existing controller to determine an alternative safe controller via quadratic programming constrained to PrSBC constraints. The key advantage of the approach is that no assumptions about the form of uncertainty are required other than finite support, also enabling worst-case guarantees.

The fuzzy or soft k -means objective is a popular generalization of the well-known k -means problem, extending the clustering capability of the k -means to datasets that are uncertain, vague and otherwise hard to cluster. In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised active clustering framework, where the learner is allowed to interact with an oracle (domain expert), asking for the similarity between a certain set of chosen items. We study the query and computational complexities of clustering in this framework. We prove that having a few of such similarity queries enables one to get a polynomial-time approximation algorithm to an otherwise conjecturally NP-hard problem. In particular, we provide algorithms for fuzzy clustering in this setting that ask O(\mathsf{poly}(k)\log n) similarity queries and run with polynomial-time-complexity, where n is the number of items.

Sampling from complex target distributions is a challenging task fundamental to Bayesian inference. Parallel tempering (PT) addresses this problem by constructing a Markov chain on the expanded state space of a sequence of distributions interpolating between the posterior distribution and a fixed reference distribution, which is typically chosen to be the prior. However, in the typical case where the prior and posterior are nearly mutually singular, PT methods are computationally prohibitive. In this work we address this challenge by constructing a generalized annealing path connecting the posterior to an adaptively tuned variational reference. The reference distribution is tuned to minimize the forward (inclusive) KL divergence to the posterior distribution using a simple, gradient-free moment-matching procedure.

A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive.

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a simulator posing the need for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, the existing algorithms can yield overconfident posteriors (Hermans et al., 2022) defeating the whole purpose of credibility if the uncertainty quantification is inaccurate. We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model in selected amortized SBI techniques. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation.

The predictive ability of supervised learning algorithms hinges on the quality of annotated examples, whose labels often come from multiple crowdsourced annotators with diverse expertise. To aggregate noisy crowdsourced annotations, many existing methods employ an annotator-specific instance-independent noise transition matrix to characterize the labeling skills of each annotator. Learning an instance-dependent noise transition model, however, is challenging and remains relatively less explored. To address this problem, in this paper, we formulate the noise transition model in a Bayesian framework and subsequently design a new label correction algorithm. To theoretically characterize the distance between the noise transition model and the true instance-dependent noise transition matrix, we provide a posterior-concentration theorem that ensures the posterior consistency in terms of the Hellinger distance.