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 Uncertainty


Finite-Sample Analysis for SARSA with Linear Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

SARSA is an on-policy algorithm to learn a Markov decision process policy in reinforcement learning. We investigate the SARSA algorithm with linear function approximation under the non-i.i.d.\ setting, where a single sample trajectory is available. With a Lipschitz continuous policy improvement operator that is smooth enough, SARSA has been shown to converge asymptotically. However, its non-asymptotic analysis is challenging and remains unsolved due to the non-i.i.d. In this paper, we develop a novel technique to explicitly characterize the stochastic bias of a type of stochastic approximation procedures with time-varying Markov transition kernels.


Leveraging Recursive Gumbel-Max Trick for Approximate Inference in Combinatorial Spaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

Structured latent variables allow incorporating meaningful prior knowledge into deep learning models. However, learning with such variables remains challenging because of their discrete nature. Nowadays, the standard learning approach is to define a latent variable as a perturbed algorithm output and to use a differentiable surrogate for training. In general, the surrogate puts additional constraints on the model and inevitably leads to biased gradients. To alleviate these shortcomings, we extend the Gumbel-Max trick to define distributions over structured domains.


Gibbs Sampling with People

Neural Information Processing Systems

A core problem in cognitive science and machine learning is to understand how humans derive semantic representations from perceptual objects, such as color from an apple, pleasantness from a musical chord, or seriousness from a face. Markov Chain Monte Carlo with People (MCMCP) is a prominent method for studying such representations, in which participants are presented with binary choice trials constructed such that the decisions follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo acceptance rule. However, while MCMCP has strong asymptotic properties, its binary choice paradigm generates relatively little information per trial, and its local proposal function makes it slow to explore the parameter space and find the modes of the distribution. Here we therefore generalize MCMCP to a continuous-sampling paradigm, where in each iteration the participant uses a slider to continuously manipulate a single stimulus dimension to optimize a given criterion such as'pleasantness'. We formulate both methods from a utility-theory perspective, and show that the new method can be interpreted as'Gibbs Sampling with People' (GSP).


Adaptive Density Estimation for Generative Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Unsupervised learning of generative models has seen tremendous progress over recent years, in particular due to generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and flow-based models. GANs have dramatically improved sample quality, but suffer from two drawbacks: (i) they mode-drop, \ie, do not cover the full support of the train data, and (ii) they do not allow for likelihood evaluations on held-out data. In contrast likelihood-based training encourages models to cover the full support of the train data, but yields poorer samples. These mutual shortcomings can in principle be addressed by training generative latent variable models in a hybrid adversarial-likelihood manner. However, we show that commonly made parametric assumptions create a conflict between them, making successful hybrid models non trivial.


Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference for Bayesian Deep Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Over-parameterized models, such as DeepNets and ConvNets, form a class of models that are routinely adopted in a wide variety of applications, and for which Bayesian inference is desirable but extremely challenging. Variational inference offers the tools to tackle this challenge in a scalable way and with some degree of flexibility on the approximation, but for overparameterized models this is challenging due to the over-regularization property of the variational objective. Inspired by the literature on kernel methods, and in particular on structured approximations of distributions of random matrices, this paper proposes Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference (WHVI), which uses Walsh-Hadamardbased factorization strategies to reduce the parameterization and accelerate computations, thus avoiding over-regularization issues with the variational objective. Extensive theoretical and empirical analyses demonstrate that WHVI yields considerable speedups and model reductions compared to other techniques to carry out approximate inference for over-parameterized models, and ultimately show how advances in kernel methods can be translated into advances in approximate Bayesian inference for Deep Learning.


Online learning in MDPs with linear function approximation and bandit feedback.

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of online learning in an episodic Markov decision process, where the reward function is allowed to change between episodes in an adversarial manner and the learner only observes the rewards associated with its actions. We assume that rewards and the transition function can be represented as linear functions in terms of a known low-dimensional feature map, which allows us to consider the setting where the state space is arbitrarily large. We also assume that the learner has a perfect knowledge of the MDP dynamics. Our main contribution is developing an algorithm whose expected regret after T episodes is bounded by \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{dHT}), where H is the number of steps in each episode and d is the dimensionality of the feature map.


On the Efficient Implementation of High Accuracy Optimality of Profile Maximum Likelihood

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide an efficient unified plug-in approach for estimating symmetric properties of distributions given n independent samples. Our estimator is based on profile-maximum-likelihood (PML) and is sample optimal for estimating various symmetric properties when the estimation error \epsilon \gg n {-1/3} . This result improves upon the previous best accuracy threshold of \epsilon \gg n {-1/4} achievable by polynomial time computable PML-based universal estimators \cite{ACSS20, ACSS20b}. Our estimator reaches a theoretical limit for universal symmetric property estimation as \cite{Han20} shows that a broad class of universal estimators (containing many well known approaches including ours) cannot be sample optimal for every 1 -Lipschitz property when \epsilon \ll n {-1/3} .


Learning Rich Rankings

Neural Information Processing Systems

Although the foundations of ranking are well established, the ranking literature has primarily been focused on simple, unimodal models, e.g. the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, that define distributions centered around a single total ordering. Explicit mixture models have provided some tools for modelling multimodal ranking data, though learning such models from data is often difficult. In this work, we contribute a contextual repeated selection (CRS) model that leverages recent advances in choice modeling to bring a natural multimodality and richness to the rankings space. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees for maximum likelihood estimation under the model through structure-dependent tail risk and expected risk bounds. As a by-product, we also furnish the first tight bounds on the expected risk of maximum likelihood estimators for the multinomial logit (MNL) choice model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) ranking model, as well as the first tail risk bound on the PL ranking model.


Learning Hawkes Processes from a handful of events

Neural Information Processing Systems

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization.


Learning to Learn Variational Semantic Memory

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we introduce variational semantic memory into meta-learning to acquire long-term knowledge for few-shot learning. The variational semantic memory accrues and stores semantic information for the probabilistic inference of class prototypes in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The semantic memory is grown from scratch and gradually consolidated by absorbing information from tasks it experiences. By doing so, it is able to accumulate long-term, general knowledge that enables it to learn new concepts of objects. We formulate memory recall as the variational inference of a latent memory variable from addressed contents, which offers a principled way to adapt the knowledge to individual tasks.