Differentially private mechanisms protect privacy by introducing additional randomness into the data. Restricting access to only the privatized data makes it challenging to perform valid statistical inference on parameters underlying the confidential data. Specifically, the likelihood function of the privatized data requires integrating over the large space of confidential databases and is typically intractable. For Bayesian analysis, this results in a posterior distribution that is doubly intractable, rendering traditional MCMC techniques inapplicable. We propose an MCMC framework to perform Bayesian inference from the privatized data, which is applicable to a wide range of statistical models and privacy mechanisms.

Circuit representations are becoming the lingua franca to express and reason about tractable generative and discriminative models. In this paper, we show how complex inference scenarios for these models that commonly arise in machine learning---from computing the expectations of decision tree ensembles to information-theoretic divergences of sum-product networks---can be represented in terms of tractable modular operations over circuits. Specifically, we characterize the tractability of simple transformations---sums, products, quotients, powers, logarithms, and exponentials---in terms of sufficient structural constraints of the circuits they operate on, and present novel hardness results for the cases in which these properties are not satisfied. Building on these operations, we derive a unified framework for reasoning about tractable models that generalizes several results in the literature and opens up novel tractable inference scenarios.

Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if data is incomplete, the latent states of the CTBN have to be estimated by laboriously simulating the intractable dynamics of the assumed CTBN. This is a problem, especially for structure learning tasks, where this has to be done for each element of a super-exponentially growing set of possible structures. In order to circumvent this notorious bottleneck, we develop a novel gradient-based approach to structure learning.

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. We study a mean-field spike and slab VB approximation of widely used Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional logistic regression. We provide non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees for the VB posterior in both \ell_2 and prediction loss for a sparse truth, giving optimal (minimax) convergence rates. Since the VB algorithm does not depend on the unknown truth to achieve optimality, our results shed light on effective prior choices. We confirm the improved performance of our VB algorithm over common sparse VB approaches in a numerical study.

Distribution Regression (DR) on stochastic processes describes the learning task of regression on collections of time series. Path signatures, a technique prevalent in stochastic analysis, have been used to solve the DR problem. Recent works have demonstrated the ability of such solutions to leverage the information encoded in paths via signature-based features. However, current state of the art DR solutions are memory intensive and incur a high computation cost. This leads to a trade-off between path length and the number of paths considered. This computational bottleneck limits the application to small sample sizes which consequently introduces estimation uncertainty. In this paper, we present a methodology for addressing the above issues; resolving estimation uncertainties whilst also proposing a pipeline that enables us to use DR for a wide variety of learning tasks. Integral to our approach is our novel distance approximator. This allows us to seamlessly apply our methodology across different application domains, sampling rates, and stochastic process dimensions. We show that our model performs well in applications related to estimation theory, quantitative finance, and physical sciences. We demonstrate that our model generalises well, not only to unseen data within a given distribution, but also under unseen regimes (unseen classes of stochastic models).

The Fokker-Planck equation can be reformulated as a continuity equation, which naturally suggests using the associated velocity field in particle flow methods. While the resulting probability flow ODE offers appealing properties - such as defining a gradient flow of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the current and target densities with respect to the 2-Wasserstein distance - it relies on evaluating the current probability density, which is intractable in most practical applications. By closely examining the drawbacks of approximating this density via kernel density estimation, we uncover opportunities to turn these limitations into advantages in contexts such as variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.

Prediction of failures in real-world robotic systems either requires accurate model information or extensive testing. Partial knowledge of the system model makes simulation-based failure prediction unreliable. Moreover, obtaining such demonstrations is expensive, and could potentially be risky for the robotic system to repeatedly fail during data collection. This work presents a novel three-step methodology for discovering failures that occur in the true system by using a combination of a limited number of demonstrations from the true system and the failure information processed through sampling-based testing of a model dynamical system. Given a limited budget $N$ of demonstrations from true system and a model dynamics (with potentially large modeling errors), the proposed methodology comprises of a) exhaustive simulations for discovering algorithmic failures using the model dynamics; b) design of initial $N_1$ demonstrations of the true system using Bayesian inference to learn a Gaussian process regression (GPR)-based failure predictor; and c) iterative $N - N_1$ demonstrations of the true system for updating the failure predictor. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology, we consider: a) the failure discovery for the task of pushing a T block to a fixed target region with UR3E collaborative robot arm using a diffusion policy; and b) the failure discovery for an F1-Tenth racing car tracking a given raceline under an LQR control policy.

In interactive imitation learning (IL), uncertainty quantification offers a way for the learner (i.e. robot) to contend with distribution shifts encountered during deployment by actively seeking additional feedback from an expert (i.e. human) online. Prior works use mechanisms like ensemble disagreement or Monte Carlo dropout to quantify when black-box IL policies are uncertain; however, these approaches can lead to overconfident estimates when faced with deployment-time distribution shifts. Instead, we contend that we need uncertainty quantification algorithms that can leverage the expert human feedback received during deployment time to adapt the robot's uncertainty online. To tackle this, we draw upon online conformal prediction, a distribution-free method for constructing prediction intervals online given a stream of ground-truth labels. Human labels, however, are intermittent in the interactive IL setting. Thus, from the conformal prediction side, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification algorithm called intermittent quantile tracking (IQT) that leverages a probabilistic model of intermittent labels, maintains asymptotic coverage guarantees, and empirically achieves desired coverage levels. From the interactive IL side, we develop ConformalDAgger, a new approach wherein the robot uses prediction intervals calibrated by IQT as a reliable measure of deployment-time uncertainty to actively query for more expert feedback. We compare ConformalDAgger to prior uncertainty-aware DAgger methods in scenarios where the distribution shift is (and isn't) present because of changes in the expert's policy. We find that in simulated and hardware deployments on a 7DOF robotic manipulator, ConformalDAgger detects high uncertainty when the expert shifts and increases the number of interventions compared to baselines, allowing the robot to more quickly learn the new behavior.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce \texttt{pyhgf}: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) can model data distributions with expressive infinite-length architectures. But this modeling involves computationally expensive process of solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE) during maximum likelihood training. Recently proposed flow matching (FM) framework allows to substantially simplify the training phase using a regression objective with the interpolated forward vector field. In this paper, we propose an interpolant-free dual flow matching (DFM) approach without explicit assumptions about the modeled vector field. DFM optimizes the forward and, additionally, a reverse vector field model using a novel objective that facilitates bijectivity of the forward and reverse transformations. Our experiments with the SMAP unsupervised anomaly detection show advantages of DFM when compared to the CNF trained with either maximum likelihood or FM objectives with the state-of-the-art performance metrics.