Eliciting a high-dimensional probability distribution from an expert via noisy judgments is notoriously challenging, yet useful for many applications, such as prior elicitation and reward modeling. We introduce a method for eliciting the expert's belief density as a normalizing flow based solely on preferential questions such as comparing or ranking alternatives. This allows eliciting in principle arbitrarily flexible densities, but flow estimation is susceptible to the challenge of collapsing or diverging probability mass that makes it difficult in practice. We tackle this problem by introducing a novel functional prior for the flow, motivated by a decision-theoretic argument, and show empirically that the belief density can be inferred as the function-space maximum a posteriori estimate. We demonstrate our method by eliciting multivariate belief densities of simulated experts, including the prior belief of a general-purpose large language model over a real-world dataset.

The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian two-step change point detection methods to rely on non-conjugate inference methods. These methods lack analytical expressions, leading to low computational efficiency and impeding timely change point detection. To address this issue, this work employs data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method for the Hawkes process, which proves to be more accurate and efficient. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the superior effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we conduct ablation studies to explore the robustness of our method concerning various hyperparameters.

Rough sets (RS)proved a thriving realm with successes inn many fields of ML and AI. In this note, we expand RS to RM - rough mereology which provides a measurable degree of uncertainty to those areas.

A popular approach to neurosymbolic AI involves mapping logic formulas to arithmetic circuits (computation graphs consisting of sums and products) and passing the outputs of a neural network through these circuits. This approach enforces symbolic constraints onto a neural network in a principled and end-toend differentiable way. Unfortunately, arithmetic circuits are challenging to run on modern AI accelerators as they exhibit a high degree of irregular sparsity. Interest in neurosymbolic AI (Hitzler & Sarker, 2022) continues to grow as the integration of symbolic reasoning and neural networks has been shown to increase reasoning capabilities (Yi et al., 2018; Trinh et al., 2024), safety (Yang et al., 2023), controllability (Jiao et al., 2024), and interpretability (Koh et al., 2020). Furthermore, neurosymbolic methods often require less data by allowing a richer and more explicit set of priors (Diligenti et al., 2017; Manhaeve et al., 2018). However, as the computational structure of many neurosymbolic models is partially dense (in its neural component) and partially sparse (in its symbolic component), efficiently learning neurosymbolic models still presents a challenge (Wan et al., 2024). So far, the symbolic components of these neurosymbolic models have struggled to fully exploit the potential of modern AI accelerators. Our work focuses on a particular flavor of neurosymbolic AI, pioneered by Xu et al. (2018) and Manhaeve et al. (2018), which performs probabilistic inference on the outputs of a neural network. This is achieved by encoding the symbolic knowledge using arithmetic circuits.

We propose a novel tomographic method, nonlinear Gaussian process tomography (nonlinear GPT) that employs the Laplace approximation to ensure the non-negative physical quantity, such as the emissivity of plasma optical diagnostics. This new method implements a logarithmic Gaussian process (log-GP) to model plasma distribution more naturally, thereby expanding the limitations of standard GPT, which are restricted to linear problems and may yield non-physical negative values. The effectiveness of the proposed log-GP tomography is demonstrated through a case study using the Ring Trap 1 (RT-1) device, where log-GPT outperforms existing methods, standard GPT, and the Minimum Fisher Information (MFI) methods in terms of reconstruction accuracy. The result highlights the effectiveness of nonlinear GPT for imposing physical constraints in applications to an inverse problem.

Conditional density estimation (CDE) goes beyond regression by modeling the full conditional distribution, providing a richer understanding of the data than just the conditional mean in regression. This makes CDE particularly useful in critical application domains. However, interpretable CDE methods are understudied. Current methods typically employ kernel-based approaches, using kernel functions directly for kernel density estimation or as basis functions in linear models. In contrast, despite their conceptual simplicity and visualization suitability, tree-based methods -- which are arguably more comprehensible -- have been largely overlooked for CDE tasks. Thus, we propose the Conditional Density Tree (CDTree), a fully non-parametric model consisting of a decision tree in which each leaf is formed by a histogram model. Specifically, we formalize the problem of learning a CDTree using the minimum description length (MDL) principle, which eliminates the need for tuning the hyperparameter for regularization. Next, we propose an iterative algorithm that, although greedily, searches the optimal histogram for every possible node split. Our experiments demonstrate that, in comparison to existing interpretable CDE methods, CDTrees are both more accurate (as measured by the log-loss) and more robust against irrelevant features. Further, our approach leads to smaller tree sizes than existing tree-based models, which benefits interpretability.

Diffusion models excel at generative modeling (e.g., text-to-image) but sampling requires multiple denoising network passes, limiting practicality. Efforts such as progressive distillation or consistency distillation have shown promise by reducing the number of passes at the expense of quality of the generated samples. In this work we identify co-variate shift as one of reason for poor performance of multi-step distilled models from compounding error at inference time. To address co-variate shift, we formulate diffusion distillation within imitation learning (DDIL) framework and enhance training distribution for distilling diffusion models on both data distribution (forward diffusion) and student induced distributions (backward diffusion). Training on data distribution helps to diversify the generations by preserving marginal data distribution and training on student distribution addresses compounding error by correcting covariate shift. In addition, we adopt reflected diffusion formulation for distillation and demonstrate improved performance, stable training across different distillation methods. We show that DDIL consistency improves on baseline algorithms of progressive distillation (PD), Latent consistency models (LCM) and Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD2).

We introduce a generic, compositional and interpretable class of generative world models that supports open-ended learning agents. This is a sparse class of Bayesian networks capable of approximating a broad range of stochastic processes, which provide agents with the ability to learn world models in a manner that may be both interpretable and computationally scalable. This approach integrating Bayesian structure learning and intrinsically motivated (model-based) planning enables agents to actively develop and refine their world models, which may lead to developmental learning and more robust, adaptive behavior.

Selecting cost-effective optimal sensor configurations for subsequent inference of parameters in black-box stochastic systems faces significant computational barriers. We propose a novel and robust approach, modelling the joint distribution over input parameters and solution with a joint energy-based model, trained on simulation data. Unlike existing simulation-based inference approaches, which must be tied to a specific set of point evaluations, we learn a functional representation of parameters and solution. This is used as a resolution-independent plug-and-play surrogate for the joint distribution, which can be conditioned over any set of points, permitting an efficient approach to sensor placement. We demonstrate the validity of our framework on a variety of stochastic problems, showing that our method provides highly informative sensor locations at a lower computational cost compared to conventional approaches.

Several popular variational bounds involving importance weighting ideas have been proposed to generalize and improve on the Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) in the context of maximum likelihood optimization, such as the Importance Weighted Auto-Encoder (IWAE) and the Variational R\'enyi (VR) bounds. The methodology to learn the parameters of interest using these bounds typically amounts to running gradient-based variational inference algorithms that incorporate the reparameterization trick. However, the way the choice of the variational bound impacts the outcome of variational inference algorithms can be unclear. Recently, the VR-IWAE bound was introduced as a variational bound that unifies the ELBO, IWAE and VR bounds methodologies. In this paper, we provide two analyses for the reparameterized and doubly-reparameterized gradient estimators of the VR-IWAE bound, which reveal the advantages and limitations of these gradient estimators while enabling us to compare of the ELBO, IWAE and VR bounds methodologies. Our work advances the understanding of importance weighted variational inference methods and we illustrate our theoretical findings empirically.