Uncertainty
Approaches to human activity recognition via passive radar
Bresciani, Christian, Cerutti, Federico, Cominelli, Marco
The thesis explores novel methods for Human Activity Recognition (HAR) using passive radar with a focus on non-intrusive Wi-Fi Channel State Information (CSI) data. Traditional HAR approaches often use invasive sensors like cameras or wearables, raising privacy issues. This study leverages the non-intrusive nature of CSI, using Spiking Neural Networks (SNN) to interpret signal variations caused by human movements. These networks, integrated with symbolic reasoning frameworks such as DeepProbLog, enhance the adaptability and interpretability of HAR systems. SNNs offer reduced power consumption, ideal for privacy-sensitive applications. Experimental results demonstrate SNN-based neurosymbolic models achieve high accuracy making them a promising alternative for HAR across various domains.
State- and context-dependent robotic manipulation and grasping via uncertainty-aware imitation learning
Winter, Tim R., Sundaram, Ashok M., Friedl, Werner, Roa, Maximo A., Stulp, Freek, Silvério, João
Generating context-adaptive manipulation and grasping actions is a challenging problem in robotics. Classical planning and control algorithms tend to be inflexible with regard to parameterization by external variables such as object shapes. In contrast, Learning from Demonstration (LfD) approaches, due to their nature as function approximators, allow for introducing external variables to modulate policies in response to the environment. In this paper, we utilize this property by introducing an LfD approach to acquire context-dependent grasping and manipulation strategies. We treat the problem as a kernel-based function approximation, where the kernel inputs include generic context variables describing task-dependent parameters such as the object shape. We build on existing work on policy fusion with uncertainty quantification to propose a state-dependent approach that automatically returns to demonstrations, avoiding unpredictable behavior while smoothly adapting to context changes. The approach is evaluated against the LASA handwriting dataset and on a real 7-DoF robot in two scenarios: adaptation to slippage while grasping and manipulating a deformable food item.
Bayesian-guided Label Mapping for Visual Reprogramming
Cai, Chengyi, Ye, Zesheng, Feng, Lei, Qi, Jianzhong, Liu, Feng
Visual reprogramming (VR) leverages the intrinsic capabilities of pretrained vision models by adapting their input or output interfaces to solve downstream tasks whose labels (i.e., downstream labels) might be totally different from the labels associated with the pretrained models (i.e., pretrained labels). When adapting the output interface, label mapping methods transform the pretrained labels to downstream labels by establishing a gradient-free one-to-one correspondence between the two sets of labels. However, in this paper, we reveal that one-to-one mappings may overlook the complex relationship between pretrained and downstream labels. Motivated by this observation, we propose a Bayesian-guided Label Mapping (BLM) method. BLM constructs an iteratively-updated probabilistic label mapping matrix, with each element quantifying a pairwise relationship between pretrained and downstream labels. The assignment of values to the constructed matrix is guided by Bayesian conditional probability, considering the joint distribution of the downstream labels and the labels predicted by the pretrained model on downstream samples. Experiments conducted on both pretrained vision models (e.g., ResNeXt) and vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) demonstrate the superior performance of BLM over existing label mapping methods. The success of BLM also offers a probabilistic lens through which to understand and analyze the effectiveness of VR. Our code is available at https://github.com/tmlr-group/BayesianLM.
Diffusion Twigs with Loop Guidance for Conditional Graph Generation
Mercatali, Giangiacomo, Verma, Yogesh, Freitas, Andre, Garg, Vikas
We introduce a novel score-based diffusion framework named Twigs that incorporates multiple co-evolving flows for enriching conditional generation tasks. Specifically, a central or trunk diffusion process is associated with a primary variable (e.g., graph structure), and additional offshoot or stem processes are dedicated to dependent variables (e.g., graph properties or labels). A new strategy, which we call loop guidance, effectively orchestrates the flow of information between the trunk and the stem processes during sampling. This approach allows us to uncover intricate interactions and dependencies, and unlock new generative capabilities. We provide extensive experiments to demonstrate strong performance gains of the proposed method over contemporary baselines in the context of conditional graph generation, underscoring the potential of Twigs in challenging generative tasks such as inverse molecular design and molecular optimization.
Consistency Diffusion Bridge Models
He, Guande, Zheng, Kaiwen, Chen, Jianfei, Bao, Fan, Zhu, Jun
Diffusion models (DMs) have become the dominant paradigm of generative modeling in a variety of domains by learning stochastic processes from noise to data. Recently, diffusion denoising bridge models (DDBMs), a new formulation of generative modeling that builds stochastic processes between fixed data endpoints based on a reference diffusion process, have achieved empirical success across tasks with coupled data distribution, such as image-to-image translation. However, DDBM's sampling process typically requires hundreds of network evaluations to achieve decent performance, which may impede their practical deployment due to high computational demands. In this work, inspired by the recent advance of consistency models in DMs, we tackle this problem by learning the consistency function of the probability-flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) of DDBMs, which directly predicts the solution at a starting step given any point on the ODE trajectory. Based on a dedicated general-form ODE solver, we propose two paradigms: consistency bridge distillation and consistency bridge training, which is flexible to apply on DDBMs with broad design choices. Experimental results show that our proposed method could sample $4\times$ to $50\times$ faster than the base DDBM and produce better visual quality given the same step in various tasks with pixel resolution ranging from $64 \times 64$ to $256 \times 256$, as well as supporting downstream tasks such as semantic interpolation in the data space.
Accelerated Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection for gravitational waves with normalizing flows
Polanska, Alicja, Wouters, Thibeau, Pang, Peter T. H., Wong, Kaze K. W., McEwen, Jason D.
We present an accelerated pipeline, based on high-performance computing techniques and normalizing flows, for joint Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection and demonstrate its efficiency in gravitational wave astrophysics. We integrate the Jim inference toolkit, a normalizing flow-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, with the learned harmonic mean estimator. Our Bayesian evidence estimates run on $1$ GPU are consistent with traditional nested sampling techniques run on $16$ CPU cores, while reducing the computation time by factors of $5\times$ and $15\times$ for $4$-dimensional and $11$-dimensional gravitational wave inference problems, respectively. Our code is available in well-tested and thoroughly documented open-source packages, ensuring accessibility and reproducibility for the wider research community.
A Distribution Semantics for Probabilistic Term Rewriting
Probabilistic programming is becoming increasingly popular thanks to its ability to specify problems with a certain degree of uncertainty. In this work, we focus on term rewriting, a well-known computational formalism. In particular, we consider systems that combine traditional rewriting rules with probabilities. Then, we define a distribution semantics for such systems that can be used to model the probability of reducing a term to some value. We also show how to compute a set of "explanations" for a given reduction, which can be used to compute its probability. Finally, we illustrate our approach with several examples and outline a couple of extensions that may prove useful to improve the expressive power of probabilistic rewrite systems.
EigenVI: score-based variational inference with orthogonal function expansions
Cai, Diana, Modi, Chirag, Margossian, Charles C., Gower, Robert M., Blei, David M., Saul, Lawrence K.
We develop EigenVI, an eigenvalue-based approach for black-box variational inference (BBVI). EigenVI constructs its variational approximations from orthogonal function expansions. For distributions over $\mathbb{R}^D$, the lowest order term in these expansions provides a Gaussian variational approximation, while higher-order terms provide a systematic way to model non-Gaussianity. These approximations are flexible enough to model complex distributions (multimodal, asymmetric), but they are simple enough that one can calculate their low-order moments and draw samples from them. EigenVI can also model other types of random variables (e.g., nonnegative, bounded) by constructing variational approximations from different families of orthogonal functions. Within these families, EigenVI computes the variational approximation that best matches the score function of the target distribution by minimizing a stochastic estimate of the Fisher divergence. Notably, this optimization reduces to solving a minimum eigenvalue problem, so that EigenVI effectively sidesteps the iterative gradient-based optimizations that are required for many other BBVI algorithms. (Gradient-based methods can be sensitive to learning rates, termination criteria, and other tunable hyperparameters.) We use EigenVI to approximate a variety of target distributions, including a benchmark suite of Bayesian models from posteriordb. On these distributions, we find that EigenVI is more accurate than existing methods for Gaussian BBVI.
Full-waveform earthquake source inversion using simulation-based inference
Saoulis, A. A., Piras, D., Mancini, A. Spurio, Joachimi, B., Ferreira, A. M. G.
This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. SBI addresses this limitation by building an empirical probabilistic model of the data errors using machine learning models, known as neural density estimators, which can then be integrated into the Bayesian inference framework. We apply the SBI framework to point-source moment tensor inversions as well as joint moment tensor and time-location inversions. We construct a range of synthetic examples to explore the quality of the SBI solutions, as well as to compare the SBI results with standard Gaussian likelihood-based Bayesian inversions. We then demonstrate that under real seismic noise, common Gaussian likelihood assumptions for treating full-waveform data yield overconfident posterior distributions that underestimate the moment tensor component uncertainties by up to a factor of 3. We contrast this with SBI, which produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters, and offers an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of simulations required to perform inference compared to standard Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, we apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic. We utilise seismic waveforms recorded by the recent UPFLOW ocean bottom seismometer array as well as by regional land stations in the Azores, comparing full moment tensor and source-time location posteriors between SBI and a Gaussian likelihood approach. We find that our adaptation of SBI can be directly applied to real earthquake sources to efficiently produce high quality posterior distributions that significantly improve upon Gaussian likelihood approaches.
ASURA-FDPS-ML: Star-by-star Galaxy Simulations Accelerated by Surrogate Modeling for Supernova Feedback
Hirashima, Keiya, Moriwaki, Kana, Fujii, Michiko S., Hirai, Yutaka, Saitoh, Takayuki R., Makino, Junnichiro, Steinwandel, Ulrich P., Ho, Shirley
We introduce new high-resolution galaxy simulations accelerated by a surrogate model that reduces the computation cost by approximately 75 percent. Massive stars with a Zero Age Main Sequence mass of about 8 solar masses and above explode as core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which play a critical role in galaxy formation. The energy released by CCSNe is essential for regulating star formation and driving feedback processes in the interstellar medium (ISM). However, the short integration timesteps required for SNe feedback present significant bottlenecks in star-by-star galaxy simulations that aim to capture individual stellar dynamics and the inhomogeneous shell expansion of SNe within the turbulent ISM. Our new framework combines direct numerical simulations and surrogate modeling, including machine learning and Gibbs sampling. The star formation history and the time evolution of outflow rates in the galaxy match those obtained from resolved direct numerical simulations. Our new approach achieves high-resolution fidelity while reducing computational costs, effectively bridging the physical scale gap and enabling multi-scale simulations.