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 Uncertainty


Believing is Seeing: Unobserved Object Detection using Generative Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Can objects that are not visible in an image -- but are in the vicinity of the camera -- be detected? This study introduces the novel tasks of 2D, 2.5D and 3D unobserved object detection for predicting the location of nearby objects that are occluded or lie outside the image frame. We adapt several state-of-the-art pre-trained generative models to address this task, including 2D and 3D diffusion models and vision-language models, and show that they can be used to infer the presence of objects that are not directly observed. To benchmark this task, we propose a suite of metrics that capture different aspects of performance. Our empirical evaluation on indoor scenes from the RealEstate10k and NYU Depth v2 datasets demonstrate results that motivate the use of generative models for the unobserved object detection task.


Trans-Glasso: A Transfer Learning Approach to Precision Matrix Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Precision matrix estimation is essential in various fields, yet it is challenging when samples for the target study are limited. Transfer learning can enhance estimation accuracy by leveraging data from related source studies. We propose Trans-Glasso, a two-step transfer learning method for precision matrix estimation. First, we obtain initial estimators using a multi-task learning objective that captures shared and unique features across studies. Then, we refine these estimators through differential network estimation to adjust for structural differences between the target and source precision matrices. Under the assumption that most entries of the target precision matrix are shared with source matrices, we derive non-asymptotic error bounds and show that Trans-Glasso achieves minimax optimality under certain conditions. Extensive simulations demonstrate Trans Glasso's superior performance compared to baseline methods, particularly in small-sample settings. We further validate Trans-Glasso in applications to gene networks across brain tissues and protein networks for various cancer subtypes, showcasing its effectiveness in biological contexts. Additionally, we derive the minimax optimal rate for differential network estimation, representing the first such guarantee in this area.


Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To better handle real-world uncertainty, concepts such as fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets, rough sets, and soft sets have been introduced. For example, neutrosophic sets, which simultaneously represent truth, indeterminacy, and falsehood, have proven to be valuable tools for modeling uncertainty in complex systems. These set concepts are increasingly studied in graphized forms, and generalized graph concepts now encompass well-known structures such as hypergraphs and superhypergraphs. Furthermore, hyperconcepts and superhyperconcepts are being actively researched in areas beyond graph theory. Combinatorics, uncertain sets (including fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets, rough sets, soft sets, and plithogenic sets), uncertain graphs, and hyper and superhyper concepts are active areas of research with significant mathematical and practical implications. Recognizing their importance, this paper explores new graph and set concepts, as well as hyper and superhyper concepts, as detailed in the "Results" section of "The Structure of the Paper." Additionally, this work aims to consolidate recent findings, providing a survey-like resource to inform and engage readers. For instance, we extend several graph concepts by introducing Neutrosophic Oversets, Neutrosophic Undersets, Neutrosophic Offsets, and the Nonstandard Real Set. This paper defines a variety of concepts with the goal of inspiring new ideas and serving as a valuable resource for researchers in their academic pursuits.


Bayesian Optimisation with Unknown Hyperparameters: Regret Bounds Logarithmically Closer to Optimal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for optimising black-box functions but requires us to specify the length scale hyperparameter, which defines the smoothness of the functions the optimizer will consider. Most current BO algorithms choose this hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the observed data, albeit risking misspecification if the objective function is less smooth in regions we have not yet explored. The only prior solution addressing this problem with theoretical guarantees was A-GP-UCB, proposed by Berkenkamp et al. (2019). This algorithm progressively decreases the length scale, expanding the class of functions considered by the optimizer. However, A-GP-UCB lacks a stopping mechanism, leading to over-exploration and slow convergence. To overcome this, we introduce Length scale Balancing (LB) - a novel approach, aggregating multiple base surrogate models with varying length scales. LB intermittently adds smaller length scale candidate values while retaining longer scales, balancing exploration and exploitation. We formally derive a cumulative regret bound of LB and compare it with the regret of an oracle BO algorithm using the optimal length scale. Denoting the factor by which the regret bound of A-GP-UCB was away from oracle as $g(T)$, we show that LB is only $\log g(T)$ away from oracle regret. We also empirically evaluate our algorithm on synthetic and real-world benchmarks and show it outperforms A-GP-UCB, maximum likelihood estimation and MCMC.


Hammer: Towards Efficient Hot-Cold Data Identification via Online Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the contemporary landscape of big data and cloud computing, the efficient management of storage resources has emerged as a paramount concern. One of the most critical aspects of this challenge is the accurate identification of data's "cold" and "hot" states. Data is classified as "hot" if it is frequently accessed, necessitating fast and readily available storage solutions. Conversely, "cold" data, which is rarely accessed, can be stored more cost-effectively in slower, less expensive storage mediums. Effective hot-cold identification not only optimizes storage costs but also enhances system performance by ensuring that the most relevant data is quickly accessible[1, 2, 3].


Forecasting Unseen Points of Interest Visits Using Context and Proximity Priors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding human mobility behavior is crucial for numerous applications, including crowd management, location-based recommendations, and the estimation of pandemic spread. Machine learning models can predict the Points of Interest (POIs) that individuals are likely to visit in the future by analyzing their historical visit patterns. Previous studies address this problem by learning a POI classifier, where each class corresponds to a POI. However, this limits their applicability to predict a new POI that was not in the training data, such as the opening of new restaurants. To address this challenge, we propose a model designed to predict a new POI outside the training data as long as its context is aligned with the user's interests. Unlike existing approaches that directly predict specific POIs, our model first forecasts the semantic context of potential future POIs, then combines this with a proximity-based prior probability distribution to determine the exact POI. Experimental results on real-world visit data demonstrate that our model outperforms baseline methods that do not account for semantic contexts, achieving a 17% improvement in accuracy. Notably, as new POIs are introduced over time, our model remains robust, exhibiting a lower decline rate in prediction accuracy compared to existing methods.


Gradient-based optimization for variational empirical Bayes multiple regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multiple linear regression provides a simple, but widely used, method to find associations between outcomes (responses) and a set of predictors (explanatory variables). It has been actively studied over more than a century, and there is a rich and vast literature on the subject [1]. In practical situations the number of predictor variables is often large, and it becomes desirable to induce sparsity in the regression coefficients to avoid overfitting [2, 3]. Sparse linear regression also serves as the foundation for non-linear techniques, such as trendfiltering [4, 5], which can estimate an underlying non-linear trend from time series data. Applications of sparse multiple linear regression and trendfiltering arise in a wide range of applications in modern science and engineering, including astronomy [6], atmospheric sciences [7], biology [8], economics [9, 10], genetics [11-15], geophysics [16], medical sciences [17, 18], social sciences [19] and text analysis [20]. Approaches to sparse linear regression can be broadly classified into two groups: (a) penalized linear regressions (PLR), which add a penalty term to the likelihood to penalize the magnitude of its parameters [21-23], and (b) Bayesian approaches [11-14, 24-29], which use a prior probability distribution on the model parameters to induce sparsity.


Enhancing Link Prediction with Fuzzy Graph Attention Networks and Dynamic Negative Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Link prediction is crucial for understanding complex networks but traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often rely on random negative sampling, leading to suboptimal performance. This paper introduces Fuzzy Graph Attention Networks (FGAT), a novel approach integrating fuzzy rough sets for dynamic negative sampling and enhanced node feature aggregation. Fuzzy Negative Sampling (FNS) systematically selects high-quality negative edges based on fuzzy similarities, improving training efficiency. FGAT layer incorporates fuzzy rough set principles, enabling robust and discriminative node representations. Experiments on two research collaboration networks demonstrate FGAT's superior link prediction accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by leveraging the power of fuzzy rough sets for effective negative sampling and node feature learning.


Variational Autoencoders for Efficient Simulation-Based Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a generative modeling approach based on the variational inference framework for likelihood-free simulation-based inference. The method leverages latent variables within variational autoencoders to efficiently estimate complex posterior distributions arising from stochastic simulations. We explore two variations of this approach distinguished by their treatment of the prior distribution. The first model adapts the prior based on observed data using a multivariate prior network, enhancing generalization across various posterior queries. In contrast, the second model utilizes a standard Gaussian prior, offering simplicity while still effectively capturing complex posterior distributions. We demonstrate the efficacy of these models on well-established benchmark problems, achieving results comparable to flow-based approaches while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability.


Revised Regularization for Efficient Continual Learning through Correlation-Based Parameter Update in Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a Bayesian neural network-based continual learning algorithm using Variational Inference, aiming to overcome several drawbacks of existing methods. Specifically, in continual learning scenarios, storing network parameters at each step to retain knowledge poses challenges. This is compounded by the crucial need to mitigate catastrophic forgetting, particularly given the limited access to past datasets, which complicates maintaining correspondence between network parameters and datasets across all sessions. Current methods using Variational Inference with KL divergence risk catastrophic forgetting during uncertain node updates and coupled disruptions in certain nodes. To address these challenges, we propose the following strategies. To reduce the storage of the dense layer parameters, we propose a parameter distribution learning method that significantly reduces the storage requirements. In the continual learning framework employing variational inference, our study introduces a regularization term that specifically targets the dynamics and population of the mean and variance of the parameters. This term aims to retain the benefits of KL divergence while addressing related challenges. To ensure proper correspondence between network parameters and the data, our method introduces an importance-weighted Evidence Lower Bound term to capture data and parameter correlations. This enables storage of common and distinctive parameter hyperspace bases. The proposed method partitions the parameter space into common and distinctive subspaces, with conditions for effective backward and forward knowledge transfer, elucidating the network-parameter dataset correspondence. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method across diverse datasets and various combinations of sequential datasets, yielding superior performance compared to existing approaches.